888
FXUS62 KMLB 140526
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1226 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
- BREEZY/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES, VERY SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
RESULT.
- RAIN LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH EMBEDDED STORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY
CONTAIN STRONG WIND GUSTS. THIS MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL WILL NOT
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR DROUGHT.
- ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER MONDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. THEN WARMING
BACK UP MID WEEK AND QUICKLY DRYING OUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
THRU SAT...NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SE AND OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST. THERE
WILL BE A SHIFT IN THE WIND FLOW, TURNING MORE EASTERLY SAT. MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE MOVING IN AROUND THE
SOUTH SIDE OF THE HIGH WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE ATLC. WITH A MORE DIRECT ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT DEVELOPING,
THERE IS A LOW (20%) CHANCE FOR THESE SHOWERS TO REACH THE COAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH OF THE CAPE.
SUN-MON...LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SUN
RESULTING IN A TIGHTENING SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT, DESPITE
GRADUALLY WEAKENING. THIS WILL PLACE EC FL SQUARELY IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BECOMING QUITE
BREEZY/GUSTY SUN AFTN. THERE REMAINS NOTABLE SPREAD AMONG GLOBAL
MODELS IN THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT THE EARLIEST
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE GREATEST RAIN CHANCES (70-90%) SUNDAY NIGHT,
EVEN LINGERING EARLY MONDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH. SHOWER CHANCES EXIST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAYTIME ON SUNDAY AND MAINTAINED A
20-40% POP ACROSS THE AREA. THE HIGHEST QPF SPREADS CENTRAL
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH VALUES AT THE
50TH PERCENTILE CURRENTLY REMAINING LESS THAN A HALF INCH. WHILE
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE GREATEST COVERAGE
OCCURRING OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, LESS
CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN HOW LONG RAIN CHANCES MAY LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS POPS AROUND 40-60% DURING
THE DAY, BUT THIS WILL BE LARGELY INFLUENCED BY THE TIMING AND
SPEED OF THE FRONT.
SPC HAS INCLUDED THE NORTH HALF OF OUR FA IN A MRGL RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS SUNDAY EVE/NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE PAST PEAK HEATING, THERE WILL BE DEEP LAYER
SHEAR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPS ASSOCD
WITH THE SHARP MID LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA. A FEW STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER THE EASTERN GULF COULD BE
MAINTAINED AS THEY MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS CENTRAL FL PENINSULA SUN
EVE, CONTAINING LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT
AI NWP CONVECTIVE HAZARDS FROM NCAR DO SHOW SEVERE PROBS (AS HIGH
AS 15%) EXTENDING INTO CENTRAL FL AND THESE ARE BASED ON ECMWF
ENSEMBLES. THERE IS NOTICEABLY LESS SIGNAL IN THE GEFS BUT IS
STILL PRESENT.
DESPITE INCREASING CLOUD COVER SUNDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH
HIGHS INTO THE LOW AND EVEN 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR,
HOLDING IN THE UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ONLY A SLIGHT
COOL DOWN BEHIND THIS FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TUE-THU (MODIFIED)...WARMING BACK UP AND DRYING OUT AS DEEP LAYER
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER. INTERIOR SECTIONS
WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S WEDNESDAY WITH MORE MID 80S
THURSDAY. COASTAL SECTIONS WILL REMAIN A LITTLE COOLER TUE-WED DUE
TO ONSHORE FLOW BUT WINDS TURN OFFSHORE THU ALLOWING EVEN COASTAL
COMMUNITIES TO REACH THE LOW 80S PRIOR TO ONSET OF A SEA BREEZE.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL REACH THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT
THEN TRACK OUT TO SEA SATURDAY. THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL BECOME EAST AROUND 10 KNOTS SAT. WINDS
VEER SE SAT NIGHT AND INCREASE 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS FURTHER SUN AS LOW PRESSURE AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
APPROACH. THIS WILL PRODUCE POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS
WITH SOUTH WINDS 15-25 KNOTS VEERING SOUTHWEST SUN NIGHT. SEAS
BUILD 5-7 FT OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT CROSSES THE
LOCAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH WINDS
SHIFTING NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KTS MONDAY
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS NEXT WEEK, FURTHER DECREASING WINDS BUT AN
INCREASING SWELL WILL BUILD SEAS 5-7 FT OVER PORTIONS OF THE GULF
STREAM TUESDAY. LOW RAIN CHANCES (~20%) ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
WATERS SATURDAY, INCREASING SUNDAY (30-50%) AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
NIGHT (70-90%) INTO MONDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING, DESPITE SOME MIFG PRODUCING BOUNCY
REDUCTIONS IN VIS AT FPR AND SUA. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT INCREASE
TO AROUND 8-12 KTS FROM THE EAST AFTER 16Z. WINDS WILL THEN
SLACKEN AFTER SUNSET AND VEER SOUTHEASTERLY, THOUGH THEY WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 8-10 KTS ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF
CAPE CANAVERAL.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 300 PM EST FRI FEB 13 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DROP SOUTHEAST AND REACH THE CAROLINA
COAST LATE TONIGHT THEN EASTWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC. A MORE DIRECT
ONSHORE (EAST) FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY THEN SOUTHEAST SAT NIGHT.
ISOLATED ATLANTIC SHOWERS MAY APPROACH THE TREASURE COAST SAT
AFTERNOON AND BRUSH SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS SAT NIGHT. LOW
PRESSURE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY WHICH WILL
INCREASE SOUTH WINDS 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 40-45% OVER MUCH
OF THE INTERIOR. SO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST BUT VERY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSION VALUES WILL COMBINE WITH VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE A VERY SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER DAY.
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AND ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 0.25-0.75 INCH FOR MOST AREAS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 74 58 81 60 / 0 10 50 90
MCO 79 61 83 63 / 0 10 30 90
MLB 74 60 81 60 / 10 10 40 80
VRB 76 61 81 60 / 20 20 30 70
LEE 78 59 82 61 / 0 0 50 90
SFB 78 60 83 63 / 0 0 40 90
ORL 79 61 83 63 / 0 0 40 90
FPR 76 59 81 60 / 20 20 20 70
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY FOR
AMZ570-572-575.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...LEAHY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page