870
FNUS72 KMLB 141049
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR LAUNCH WILDFIRE...US WILDLAND FIRE SERVICE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
549 AM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON FORECAST START TIME OF 0600 EST ON FEBRUARY 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS THEN DEVELOP SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE ARE NO MINRH CONCERNS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER, WARM AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GOOD DISPERSION WILL
INCREASE FIRE SENSITIVITIES ON SUNDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY. LIMITED RAIN CHANCES EXIST SUNDAY
MORNING, GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS THEN APPROACH THE BURN
SITE AFTER 7 PM WITH HIGH RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT (~80-90%). A STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORM EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LINE WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH.
TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (15-25 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 69.
MIN HUMIDITY........73 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 5 TO 9 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1900 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHEAST 7 TO 10 MPH SHIFTING TO THE EAST 8 TO
10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....7 INCREASING TO 23.
LVORI...............7 DECREASING TO 3.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........10 14 9 7 8 12 9 9 15 24 24 28
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............59 60 61 65 67 68 68 69 67 68 67 67
RH..............94 91 89 80 77 75 74 73 76 75 77 78
20 FT WIND DIR..N N N NE NE NE NE NE NE NE E E
20 FT WIND SPD..3 3 5 5 6 7 8 8 9 9 8 7
20 FT WIND GUST.7 7 8 9 10 12 13 13 14 14 13 12
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.9 0.9 1.3 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.4
TRANSP WIND DIR.N NE NE NE NE NE E E E E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.7 7 7 8 9 9 10 9 8 9 10 10
DISPERSION IDX..3 10 13 19 23 25 23 23 21 20 22 20
LVORI...........7 5 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (55-65 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......10 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 9 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHEAST
AROUND 9 MPH OVERNIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 10 TO 14 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AROUND
13 MPH AFTER 3 AM.
DISPERSION INDEX....18 DECREASING TO 10.
LVORI...............5 INCREASING TO 6 EARLY IN THE EVENING.
TIME (EST) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
SKY (%).........33 50 56 51 57 63 61 64 65 59 60 64
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
TEMP............66 64 64 63 63 63 63 63 62 63 62 63
RH..............83 90 93 97 93 93 93 94 97 95 100 95
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E SE SE SE SE SE S
20 FT WIND SPD..6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9
20 FT WIND GUST.12 10 12 13 13 14 15 15 15 15 15 15
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.2 1.3 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.1
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E SE SE SE S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.10 10 13 14 14 14 14 13 13 14 13 13
DISPERSION IDX..18 7 8 10 11 13 13 12 12 12 13 12
LVORI...........4 5 6 6 6 5 5 6 6 5 6 6
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.
CHANCE OF PCPN......50 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 73.
MIN HUMIDITY........75 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTH WINDS 9 TO 17 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2900 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3200 FT AGL LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 13 TO 21 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....11 INCREASING TO 55.
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 4 EARLY IN THE MORNING.
TIME (EST) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........62 56 52 58 63 58 52 46 48 50 52 63
WEATHER COV..... CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
WEATHER TYPE.... RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 30 30 30 30 30 30 50 50 50 50 50
TEMP............62 62 64 66 68 69 70 71 72 72 72 71
RH..............97 100 96 92 88 84 80 76 76 76 75 79
20 FT WIND DIR..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT WIND SPD..9 9 10 12 13 14 14 15 16 17 17 17
20 FT WIND GUST.15 15 16 17 18 20 20 21 22 22 23 23
MIX HGT (KFT)...1.1 1.2 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.S S S S S S S S S S S S
TRANSP WIND SPD.13 13 15 15 15 15 16 17 18 20 21 21
DISPERSION IDX..11 21 32 34 34 37 39 40 43 46 49 55
LVORI...........6 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3
FORECASTER...LAW
REQUESTED BY...SAM ASHBAUGH
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2602596.4/MLB
.DELDT 02/14/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL SAMUEL_ASHBAUGH@FWS.GOV
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