316
FXUS62 KMLB 150544
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1244 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
- WINDY AND WARM SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE VERY SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF SEVERE STORMS WILL EXIST SUNDAY
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL FL. WHILE RAIN
CHANCES ARE HIGH, RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON OUR DROUGHT.
- ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLER MONDAY WITH LINGERING SHOWERS. THEN WARMING
BACK UP MID WEEK AND QUICKLY DRYING OUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
THRU TONIGHT...WIND FLOW VEERS SE AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES SEAWARD
FROM THE CAROLINA COAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST FROM THE
ARKLATEX. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLC WILL DEVELOP A NW MOTION,
POSSIBLY REACHING PORTIONS OF THE COAST FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD
ONCE THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION DIMINISHES THIS EVENING.
SUN-MON...LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SUNDAY
AND SOUTHERLY PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. THIS WILL PRODUCE A WINDY AND WARM AFTERNOON WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH GUSTS 30-35 MPH. THIS IS NOT
FAR FROM WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT HREF PROBS ARE QUITE LOW FOR
GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY, WITH ISOLATED SHOWER CHANCES (20%)
DEVELOPING SOUTH AND EAST OF ORLANDO. ALL EYES WILL BE TOWARD THE
NW AS A BAND OF STORMS PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND
EASTERN GULF AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. WIDESPREAD COVERAGE (70-90%)
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS DEVELOPS NORTH AND WEST
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR EARLY SUNDAY EVENING (AFTER 6 PM), SPREADING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
DESPITE AN OVERALL LACK OF INSTABILITY, STRONG WIND FIELDS AND
UPPER FORCING FROM A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA
WILL PRODUCE A RISK FOR STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
PRIMARILY NORTH OF A LINE FROM TITUSVILLE TO LAKE KISSIMMEE DURING
THE EVENING HOURS SUNDAY. THE BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES SOUTH OF MELBOURNE DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONGER STORMS, LOW LEVEL WIND PROFILES
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SHOWERS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN ONE-HALF
INCH BUT LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR IN LAKE/VOLUSIA/
SEMINOLE AND ORANGE COUNTIES. WHILE VERY WELCOME RAIN, IT WILL NOT
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR DROUGHT.
LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY AS WINDS TURN N BUT DEEP DRYING DOES NOT
COMMENCE IMMEDIATELY. BREEZY CONDS ALONG THE COAST AT 15-20 MPH
WHERE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD BE SLOW TO ERODE/BREAK UP ESP NORTH OF
THE CAPE.
ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPS ACROSS THE BOARD SUNDAY AS AREA WILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S, EVEN THE COAST DUE TO A SLIGHT
OFFSHORE COMPONENT. RECORDS LOOK OUT OF REACH. ON MONDAY, MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST DUE TO
THE NORTH WIND AND PESKY STRATUS, HOLDING NEAR 70F. WARMING INTO
THE UPPER 70S AROUND LAKE O AND TREASURE COAST.
TUE-FRI (MODIFIED)... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TUESDAY WITH THE TRAILING RIDGE AXIS SETTLING
TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA MID TO LATE WEEK. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
WARMING TREND EACH DAY WITH NO MENTIONABLE RAINFALL. HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY INCREASE TO
THE THE MID 80S THU-SAT. LOW TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 50S EACH
MORNING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THEN
SOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOES INTO
EFFECT FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS (20-60 NM) AT 10 AM SUNDAY AS WINDS
INCREASE TO AROUND 20-25 KTS. THE ADVISORY WILL EXPAND TO THE
NEARSHORE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR SOUTH WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS.
SEAS WILL BUILD 5-7 FT OFFSHORE IN THE GULF STREAM INTO SUNDAY
EVENING. WINDS TURN NW TO N MONDAY WITH POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS CONTINUING. WINDS AND SEAS DECREASE TUE-WED AS THE
RIDGE AXIS SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLC WATERS.
SHOWER COVERAGE INCREASES SUNDAY, BECOMING WIDESPREAD (70-90%)
SUNDAY NIGHT AS A BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SWEEPS THROUGH.
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS ESP FROM
THE CAPE NORTHWARD AS THEY PUSH OFFSHORE. EVEN IN THE ABSENCE OF
STORMS, SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS OF 34 KTS. RAIN
CHANCES LINGER OVER THE WATERS MONDAY BEFORE DRYING TUESDAY AND
INTO MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME BREEZY AFTER 15Z AND FURTHER INCREASE AFTER
18Z, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 15-18 KTS AND GUSTS 20-30 KTS. MODELS
KEEP TERMINALS DRY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, SO HAVE
NOT INCLUDED VCSH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THEN, A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PASS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA, BEGINNING
VCTS WITH LEE/DAB AROUND 23Z. HAVE HELD OFF ON TEMPOS AT THIS
TIME, BUT WILL LIKELY SEE INCLUSION FOR AT LEAST MLB NORTHWARD IN
THE NEXT PACKAGE. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THIS LINE, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF ISM/TIX. WINDS
SLACKEN INTO THE EVENING, BUT REMAIN ELEVATED. MVFR/IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE EARLY MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 340 PM EST SAT FEB 14 2026
INCREASING SOUTHERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS SUNDAY WILL PRODUCE
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 MPH, GUSTING 30-35 MPH. THIS WILL COMBINE
WITH VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE HIGH DISPERSION VALUES AND A
VERY FIRE WEATHER SENSITIVE DAY. MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOLD
ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES BETWEEN 40-45% SO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT
FORECAST TO OCCUR. NONETHELESS, GIVEN THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS, ANY
NEW OR EXISTING FIRES WILL BE CAPABLE OF SPREADING RAPIDLY.
MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
HIGHER ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS (ORLANDO NORTHWARD) BETWEEN 0.25-
0.75" AND THERE IS A RISK THERE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CONTAINING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. LESSER
RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.10-0.25" ARE FORECAST FROM MELBOURNE
SOUTHWARD.
ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER MONDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND BREEZY ALONG THE COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 81 59 70 54 / 50 90 20 10
MCO 83 62 74 58 / 30 90 10 0
MLB 81 59 74 57 / 30 80 20 10
VRB 82 60 77 58 / 20 80 20 10
LEE 81 59 74 54 / 50 90 10 0
SFB 83 61 73 56 / 30 90 20 0
ORL 82 62 74 57 / 30 90 10 0
FPR 82 59 77 56 / 20 70 20 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ550-552-555.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
FOR AMZ570-572-575.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...LEAHY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page