030
FXUS62 KMLB 160537
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1237 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1/5) OF SEVERE STORMS EXISTS THIS EVENING
ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL FL. WHILE RAIN CHANCES ARE
HIGH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR IN SOME SPOTS, STORM
TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON OUR
DROUGHT.
- COOLER MONDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT THEN WARMING BACK UP THROUGH
THE WEEK AND QUICKLY DRYING OUT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
CURRENT THRU TONIGHT...STRONG SFC HEATING HAS GENERATED DEEP
MIXING AND PULLED INCREASING WINDS UP THRU 850 MB DOWN TO THE SFC
IN WIND GUSTS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FA. BUT AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES, THE WINDS AND ESP THE GUSTINESS
WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTN.
A SQUALL LINE CURRENTLY OVER THE NE GULF OUTPACES THE ACTUAL COLD
FRONT WHICH LAGS A BIT FARTHER TO THE WEST. THE BAND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS IS FORECAST TO REACH LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES JUST
AFTER SUNSET (7-8 PM) AND METRO ORLANDO BTWN 9-10 PM BASED ON THE
LATEST HRRR. THE CURRENT TORNADO WATCH JUST TO OUR NORTH EXPIRES
AT 8PM AND IT IS POSSIBLE ANOTHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED TO THE SOUTH
AND COULD ENCOMPASS SOME OF OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER THIS
EVENING. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MRGL RISK FOR SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS EC FL TODAY. STRONG WIND FIELDS AND UPPER FORCING
FROM A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PRODUCE A RISK FOR DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS AND A TORNADO OR TWO, PRIMARILY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
TITUSVILLE TO LAKE KISSIMMEE DURING THE EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH
GRADUALLY VEERING LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST, LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
HELICITY PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A LOW RISK FOR A TORNADO.
THE LINE WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SOUTH OF MELBOURNE/LAKE
KISSIMMEE, ACROSS OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST LATER
TONIGHT. GUSTY SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE EVEN IN ABSENCE OF STRONGER
STORMS AS WIND FIELDS WILL INCREASE 40-45 KNOTS AT 925 MB.
LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS MAY REACH 1" ACROSS PORTIONS OF LAKE,
VOLUSIA, SEMINOLE AND ORANGE COUNTIES BUT MUCH LESSER AMOUNTS TO
THE SOUTH.
MON...SOUNDING PROFILES HOLD A LAYER OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BELOW
850MB THROUGH THE DAY, AND CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT ISOLATED
SPRINKLES OR EVEN LIGHT SHOWERS. WINDS WILL VEER NW TO N DURING
THE DAY, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST. THERE WILL ALSO
BE CONSIDERABLE STRATUS ESP ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST WHICH SHOULD
HOLD MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S THERE. ELSEWHERE, MAX TEMPS IN THE
70S WILL OCCUR NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN TODAY.
TUE-SUN (MODIFIED)...A WARMING TREND SETS UP THROUGH LATE WEEK AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A
TRAILING RIDGE AXIS SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA, BECOMING
STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH FL BY LATE WEEK. MAX TEMPS REACH THE MID
80S ACROSS ALL THE INTERIOR BY THU AND CONTINUE FRI-SAT WITH LOW
TO MID 80S COAST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH
AROUND SUNDAY WHICH WOULD BRING TEMPS DOWN TO MORE SEASONABLE
LEVELS. BUT THERE ARE NO MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES TUE THROUGH SAT,
FURTHER INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE SENSITIVITIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 20
KNOTS NEARSHORE AND INCREASING TO 25 KNOTS OFFSHORE THRU THIS
EVENING. NEARSHORE WATERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP BACK TO A
CAUTION OVERNIGHT BUT WINDS/SEAS WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY OFFSHORE
THRU MON MORNING. WINDS TURN NW TO N MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH 15 KNOTS, EVEN 15-20 KNOTS WHICH MAY REQUIRE A CAUTION. HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST WITH A TRAILING
RIDGE AXIS THAT SETTLES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS MID WEEK. SO
WINDS WILL DECREASE BUT AN INCREASING SWELL WILL KEEP SEAS A
LITTLE HIGHER THAN EXPECTED.
A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS PUSHES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING HIGH RAIN
CHANCES (70-90%). STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE PUSHING OFFSHORE, PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE CAPE. THE
CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WEAKEN AS IT PUSHES SOUTH
OF THE CAPE, FINALLY PUSHING SOUTH OF JUPITER INLET NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY. HOWEVER, ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY BEFORE DRYING TUESDAY
AND INTO MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
A LINE OF SHOWERS, WITH A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES CONTINUES
TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. AREAS
FROM ISM/TIX NORTHWARD WILL REMAIN DRY AFTER 6Z, WITH THE LINE
CLEARING THE TREASURE COAST BY 9-10Z AS IT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH.
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR BRIEF VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS, BUT THE LIGHTNING THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN
OVERNIGHT.
LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO DEVELOP THROUGH SUNRISE, AS A FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SUGGEST THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE
FROM ISM/TIX NORTHWARD, WITH LEE AND DAB POSSIBLE REMAINING LOWER
MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME
CLEARING BY THE EVENING HOURS, THOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A
REDUCTION AGAIN AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. AREAS TO THE SOUTH SHOULD
FAIR BETTER, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY MID-MORNING. SW
WINDS VEER N THROUGH THE PERIOD AND REMAIN ELEVATED. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST, WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 330 PM EST SUN FEB 15 2026
SOUTHERLY SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED WINDS
15-25 MPH, GUSTING 30-35 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
VERY WARM TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE HIGH DISPERSION VALUES AND A VERY
FIRE WEATHER SENSITIVE DAY. MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 35-40% ARE
FORECAST. A FEW INSTANTANEOUS RED FLAG CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR. GIVEN
THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS, ANY NEW OR EXISTING FIRES WILL BE CAPABLE
OF SPREADING RAPIDLY.
MUCH NEEDED RAIN WILL MOVE IN THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE
HIGHER ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS (ORLANDO NORTHWARD) BETWEEN 0.25-
0.75" AND THERE IS A RISK THERE FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
CONTAINING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH BETWEEN 7PM AND MIDNIGHT. LESSER
RAIN AMOUNTS BETWEEN 0.10-0.25" ARE FORECAST FROM MELBOURNE
SOUTHWARD.
ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY LINGER MONDAY WITH A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH AND BREEZY ALONG THE COAST. A WARM AND DRYING
TREND THEN SETS UP THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH NO
MENTIONABLE RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURES CLIMBING THROUGH THE 80S.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 68 53 74 55 / 10 10 10 0
MCO 73 56 77 57 / 0 0 10 0
MLB 73 56 75 58 / 0 10 10 0
VRB 76 57 76 58 / 0 10 10 0
LEE 71 53 78 56 / 0 0 10 0
SFB 71 54 77 56 / 0 0 10 0
ORL 72 56 77 58 / 0 0 10 0
FPR 76 56 77 56 / 0 10 10 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ570-572-
575.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...LEAHY
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