503
FXUS62 KMLB 160800
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
- WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST.
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THIS WEEK WITH INCREASING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING... A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CAPE EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE
COAST, CLEARING SOUTH OF THE AREA NEAR OR BEFORE SUNRISE.
TODAY-TONIGHT... WINDS GRADUALLY TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST AS THE
COLD FRONT PASSES CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. CONDITIONS BECOME BREEZY AT
TIMES ALONG THE COAST, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST, AND
GUSTS INCREASE UP TO 25 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING. OTHERWISE, GUSTS INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR
LATE TODAY. STRATUS BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE I-4 CORRIDOR
WITH OVERCAST SKIES LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MORE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS HOLD IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY WITH LOW 70S SURROUNDING THE
ORLANDO METRO. SOUTH OF MELBOURNE, HIGHS SPREAD THE MID TO UPPER
70S. MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY TODAY. HOWEVER, WINDS SHIFTING ONSHORE
WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL INTRODUCE A LOW CHANCE (10%) FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ALONG THE COAST FROM MELBOURNE SOUTHWARD THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID WEEK. INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS REMAINS THE MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW HELPS LIMIT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON TUESDAY WHILE AREAS WEST OF
I-95 CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S. SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS VOLUSIA
TUESDAY. WINDS THEN SHIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INTO LATE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY INCREASING THROUGH THE 80S EACH DAY. BY
FRIDAY, THERE ARE MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES
TO EXCEED 85 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR, ROUGHLY 10
DEGREES ABOVE THE DAILY NORMAL. THERE IS NO MENTIONABLE RAINFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY, INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER SENSITIVITIES.
WEEKEND... RIDGING ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. THE PATTERN CHANGES LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. AND RIDGING IS DISPLACED. CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OR PASSING
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW
AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTH OF THE CAPE EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL OFFSHORE
WATERS (20-60 NM) THIS MORNING, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT. THE BREVARD AND TREASURE COAST LEGS OF THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10AM AS WINDS SUBSIDE.
HOWEVER, A SURGE OF NORTH WINDS 20-25 KTS WILL SPREAD THE VOLUSIA
WATERS LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, CONTINUING THE OFFSHORE
VOLUSIA SCA WHILE EXPANDING TO THE NEARSHORE VOLUSIA WATERS AT 10AM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE BREVARD AND TREASURE
COAST WATERS THIS AFTERNOON FOR WINDS 15-20 KTS. SEAS 4-6 FT
OFFSHORE BRIEFLY SUBSIDE BEFORE A BUILDING SWELL INCREASES SEAS 5-7
FT IN THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PROMOTE MORE FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS MID TO
LATE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SPREAD THE LOCAL
WATERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
A LINE OF SHOWERS, WITH A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES CONTINUES
TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVERNIGHT. AREAS
FROM ISM/TIX NORTHWARD WILL REMAIN DRY AFTER 6Z, WITH THE LINE
CLEARING THE TREASURE COAST BY 9-10Z AS IT CONTINUES TO DIMINISH.
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR BRIEF VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS IN ANY HEAVIER
SHOWERS, BUT THE LIGHTNING THREAT WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN
OVERNIGHT.
LOW STRATUS LOOKS TO DEVELOP THROUGH SUNRISE, AS A FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS SUGGEST THE GREATEST IMPACTS WILL BE
FROM ISM/TIX NORTHWARD, WITH LEE AND DAB POSSIBLE REMAINING LOWER
MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF MONDAY AFTERNOON. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME
CLEARING BY THE EVENING HOURS, THOUGH WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A
REDUCTION AGAIN AFTER SUNSET TONIGHT. AREAS TO THE SOUTH SHOULD
FAIR BETTER, WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY MID-MORNING. SW
WINDS VEER N THROUGH THE PERIOD AND REMAIN ELEVATED. BREEZY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST, WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WINDS SHIFT NORTH AS A COLD FRONT PASSES TODAY, FURTHER BECOMING
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEK LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. MINRH SENSITIVITIES INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD WHILE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 68 53 74 55 / 10 10 10 0
MCO 73 56 77 57 / 0 0 10 0
MLB 73 56 75 58 / 0 10 10 0
VRB 76 57 76 58 / 0 10 10 0
LEE 71 53 78 56 / 0 0 10 0
SFB 71 54 77 56 / 0 0 10 0
ORL 72 56 77 58 / 0 0 10 0
FPR 76 56 77 56 / 0 10 10 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ572-575.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ572.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...LEAHY
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