141
FXUS62 KMLB 161744
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1244 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
- WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST.
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THIS WEEK WITH INCREASING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
EARLY THIS MORNING... A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS
CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE CAPE EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES THROUGH OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE
COAST, CLEARING SOUTH OF THE AREA NEAR OR BEFORE SUNRISE.
TODAY-TONIGHT... WINDS GRADUALLY TURN NORTH THEN NORTHEAST AS THE
COLD FRONT PASSES CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. CONDITIONS BECOME BREEZY AT
TIMES ALONG THE COAST, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST, AND
GUSTS INCREASE UP TO 25 MPH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE
EVENING. OTHERWISE, GUSTS INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH ACROSS THE INTERIOR
LATE TODAY. STRATUS BUILDS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE I-4 CORRIDOR
WITH OVERCAST SKIES LINGERING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MORE
OPPORTUNITY FOR SUNSHINE ACROSS THE SOUTH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA. HIGHS HOLD IN THE
UPPER 60S ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY WITH LOW 70S SURROUNDING THE
ORLANDO METRO. SOUTH OF MELBOURNE, HIGHS SPREAD THE MID TO UPPER
70S. MOST AREAS REMAIN DRY TODAY. HOWEVER, WINDS SHIFTING ONSHORE
WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE WILL INTRODUCE A LOW CHANCE (10%) FOR LIGHT
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ALONG THE COAST FROM MELBOURNE SOUTHWARD THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY... HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MID WEEK. INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS REMAINS THE MAIN WEATHER HEADLINE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE COMING WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW HELPS LIMIT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON TUESDAY WHILE AREAS WEST OF
I-95 CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S. SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS VOLUSIA
TUESDAY. WINDS THEN SHIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST INTO LATE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY INCREASING THROUGH THE 80S EACH DAY. BY
FRIDAY, THERE ARE MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR TEMPERATURES
TO EXCEED 85 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR, ROUGHLY 10
DEGREES ABOVE THE DAILY NORMAL. THERE IS NO MENTIONABLE RAINFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY, INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER SENSITIVITIES.
WEEKEND... RIDGING ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW SHOULD KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY. THE PATTERN CHANGES LATE
IN THE WEEKEND AS A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO DIG ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. AND RIDGING IS DISPLACED. CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OR PASSING
CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES REMAIN LOW
AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
A BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE
SOUTH OF THE CAPE EARLY THIS MORNING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL OFFSHORE
WATERS (20-60 NM) THIS MORNING, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT. THE BREVARD AND TREASURE COAST LEGS OF THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 10AM AS WINDS SUBSIDE.
HOWEVER, A SURGE OF NORTH WINDS 20-25 KTS WILL SPREAD THE VOLUSIA
WATERS LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, CONTINUING THE OFFSHORE
VOLUSIA SCA WHILE EXPANDING TO THE NEARSHORE VOLUSIA WATERS AT 10AM.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS THE BREVARD AND TREASURE
COAST WATERS THIS AFTERNOON FOR WINDS 15-20 KTS. SEAS 4-6 FT
OFFSHORE BRIEFLY SUBSIDE BEFORE A BUILDING SWELL INCREASES SEAS 5-7
FT IN THE GULF STREAM TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PROMOTE MORE FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS MID TO
LATE WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS SPREAD THE LOCAL
WATERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
LOW STRATUS DECK IS MOVING IN, MAINLY FROM TIX TO KISM NORTHWARD.
HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CIGS FOR THOSE TERMINALS THROUGH 20Z WHEN
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO VFR. MONITORING MLB
SOUTHWARD FOR THE LOWER STRATUS DECK TO POTENTIALLY MOVE IN. BUT
FOR NOW, LEFT THEM VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH 10-15 KT AND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT
AND DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS BEFORE WINDS BECOME MORE NE
AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT BY MID-MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY
ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH STARTING AT 02Z AND
GOING THROUGH 15Z FOR VRB, FPR, SUA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WINDS SHIFT NORTH AS A COLD FRONT PASSES TODAY, FURTHER BECOMING
GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEK LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. MINRH SENSITIVITIES INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD WHILE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 54 73 55 80 / 10 0 0 0
MCO 56 77 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 57 74 58 79 / 20 0 0 0
VRB 58 75 57 80 / 20 0 0 0
LEE 53 77 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 54 76 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 56 77 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 56 76 57 81 / 20 20 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ572.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...WATSON
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