298
FXUS62 KMLB 161949
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
249 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
- NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST.
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THIS WEEK WITH INCREASING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT...NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO VEER
NERLY TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH INTO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THRU LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER
LAND BUT THERE WILL BE ISOLD-SCT SHOWER CHANCES OVER THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WE
COULD SEE A FEW "LOW-TOPPED" SHOWERS PUSH ONTO LAND
(SPACE/TREASURE COASTS) THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS VEER. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE STUBBORN AND REMAIN
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COOLER
HIGHS TODAY BEHIND THE LATEST COLD FRONT AND WILL SEE OVERNIGHT
MINS FALL INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE.
TUE-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BUILDS ALONG THE
ATLC SEABOARD AND THEN OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLC DURING THIS PERIOD.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.
EASTERLY LIGHT FLOW ON TUE BECOMES S/SE ON WED, LIGHT SW THU/FRI,
THOUGH THERE WILL BE AN ECSB EACH DAY WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE
ALONG THE COAST WED-FRI AND SLOW TRANSITION INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 70S AREAWIDE ON TUE, U70S AT THE COAST AND
L80S INLAND ON WED, 80F-86F AREAWIDE ON THU & 80F-88F ON FRI -
WARMEST TEMPS INTERIOR. LOWS CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE 50S, THOUGH
SOME L60S WITHIN REACH NEAR LARGER METROPOLITAN AREAS AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER
SENSITIVITIES TO RESUME INTO LATE WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG
POTENTIAL RETURNING IN THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD NEAR MID
TO LATE WEEK.
WEEKEND...MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS & WESTERN
ATLC PREVIOUSLY SUPPORTING NEAR ZONAL WINDS ALOFT, WILL TRANSITION
FURTHER SEAWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE
WILL DRIVE OUR NEXT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH CENTRAL FL
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND. AT PRESENT, ONLY A SCHC FOR SHOWERS IS
FORECAST WITH THIS BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO
INTO SAT (80S), WITH A POTENTIAL SLIGHT COOL-DOWN ON SUN (STILL
ABOVE SEASONAL) - THOUGH MAY BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. LOWS CONTINUE IN THE U50S TO L60S, AND THERE
MAY BE A POST-FRONTAL COOL-DOWN MON MORNING - GENERALLY L-M50S,
EXCEPT U40S FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH LAKE AND NORTH VOLUSIA COUNTIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE VEERING NORTH BEHIND IT
AND FURTHER NNE/NE/ENE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20
KTS WITH SEAS BUILDING 3-5 FT NEAR SHORE AND 5-7 FT WELL OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. SOME MARGINAL EXERCISE CAUTION/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MAY RESULT. HEADING INTO TUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK-WEEK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OUT INTO
THE WESTERN ATLC. DECREASING WINDS BECOMING ERLY ON TUE, SE/S TUE
NIGHT - WED AND A LIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT THU/FRI, THOUGH THERE
WILL BE A WEAK SEA BREEZE AT THE COAST EACH AFTN WED-FRI, WHICH
WILL "BACK" WINDS ONSHORE FOR A PERIOD BEFORE "VEERING" TO
OFFSHORE AGAIN IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIODS. ISOLD-SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
LOW STRATUS DECK IS MOVING IN, MAINLY FROM TIX TO KISM NORTHWARD.
HAVE INCLUDED MVFR CIGS FOR THOSE TERMINALS THROUGH 20Z WHEN
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING CLOUDS WILL LIFT TO VFR. MONITORING MLB
SOUTHWARD FOR THE LOWER STRATUS DECK TO POTENTIALLY MOVE IN. BUT
FOR NOW, LEFT THEM VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. BREEZY AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH 10-15 KT AND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
WINDS WILL THEN SHIFT NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT
AND DECREASE TO AROUND 10 KT OR LESS BEFORE WINDS BECOME MORE NE
AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT BY MID-MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT
THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, MAINLY
ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH STARTING AT 02Z AND
GOING THROUGH 15Z FOR VRB, FPR, SUA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WINDS SHIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND THE MOST RECENT WEAK COLD FRONT,
BECOMING GUSTY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEK
LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. MIN RH
SENSITIVITIES INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WHILE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH, THOUGH COULD BE A BIT HIGHER
ALONG THE COAST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER NEXT
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 54 73 55 80 / 10 0 0 0
MCO 56 77 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 57 74 58 79 / 20 0 0 0
VRB 58 75 57 80 / 20 0 0 0
LEE 53 77 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 54 76 55 82 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 56 77 57 82 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 56 76 57 81 / 20 20 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
TUESDAY FOR AMZ572.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...WATSON
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