092
FXUS62 KMLB 162334
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
634 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 634 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO TONIGHT.
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THIS WEEK WITH INCREASING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT...NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO VEER
NERLY TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH INTO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THRU LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER
LAND BUT THERE WILL BE ISOLD-SCT SHOWER CHANCES OVER THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WE
COULD SEE A FEW "LOW-TOPPED" SHOWERS PUSH ONTO LAND
(SPACE/TREASURE COASTS) THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS VEER. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE STUBBORN AND REMAIN
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COOLER
HIGHS TODAY BEHIND THE LATEST COLD FRONT AND WILL SEE OVERNIGHT
MINS FALL INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE.
TUE-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BUILDS ALONG THE
ATLC SEABOARD AND THEN OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLC DURING THIS PERIOD.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.
EASTERLY LIGHT FLOW ON TUE BECOMES S/SE ON WED, LIGHT SW THU/FRI,
THOUGH THERE WILL BE AN ECSB EACH DAY WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE
ALONG THE COAST WED-FRI AND SLOW TRANSITION INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 70S AREAWIDE ON TUE, U70S AT THE COAST AND
L80S INLAND ON WED, 80F-86F AREAWIDE ON THU & 80F-88F ON FRI -
WARMEST TEMPS INTERIOR. LOWS CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE 50S, THOUGH
SOME L60S WITHIN REACH NEAR LARGER METROPOLITAN AREAS AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER
SENSITIVITIES TO RESUME INTO LATE WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG
POTENTIAL RETURNING IN THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD NEAR MID
TO LATE WEEK.
WEEKEND...MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS & WESTERN
ATLC PREVIOUSLY SUPPORTING NEAR ZONAL WINDS ALOFT, WILL TRANSITION
FURTHER SEAWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE
WILL DRIVE OUR NEXT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH CENTRAL FL
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND. AT PRESENT, ONLY A SCHC FOR SHOWERS IS
FORECAST WITH THIS BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO
INTO SAT (80S), WITH A POTENTIAL SLIGHT COOL-DOWN ON SUN (STILL
ABOVE SEASONAL) - THOUGH MAY BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. LOWS CONTINUE IN THE U50S TO L60S, AND THERE
MAY BE A POST-FRONTAL COOL-DOWN MON MORNING - GENERALLY L-M50S,
EXCEPT U40S FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH LAKE AND NORTH VOLUSIA COUNTIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE VEERING NORTH BEHIND IT
AND FURTHER NNE/NE/ENE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20
KTS WITH SEAS BUILDING 3-5 FT NEAR SHORE AND 5-7 FT WELL OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. SOME MARGINAL EXERCISE CAUTION/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MAY RESULT. HEADING INTO TUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK-WEEK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OUT INTO
THE WESTERN ATLC. DECREASING WINDS BECOMING ERLY ON TUE, SE/S TUE
NIGHT - WED AND A LIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT THU/FRI, THOUGH THERE
WILL BE A WEAK SEA BREEZE AT THE COAST EACH AFTN WED-FRI, WHICH
WILL "BACK" WINDS ONSHORE FOR A PERIOD BEFORE "VEERING" TO
OFFSHORE AGAIN IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIODS. ISOLD-SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 634 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
LOW CLOUDS ACROSS VOLUSIA, SEMINOLE AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES
ARE BUILDING BACK INLAND, WITH MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO LINGER
THROUGH THIS EVENING HOURS NEAR TO NORTH OF KMCO/KISM. AS LOW
LEVEL FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE VEERS GRADUALLY ONSHORE, CLOUD
BASES SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING,
WITH CIGS FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY VFR. HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
LINGERING MVFR CIGS, ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST. ISOLATED ONSHORE
MOVING SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING NEAR TO SOUTH OF KMLB, POTENTIALLY PRODUCING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS. ANY SHOWERS AT THE COAST SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE
MORNING, WITH VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
NORTHERLY WINDS UP TO 7-12 KNOTS WILL DIMINISH TO 5-7 KNOTS INTO
TONIGHT, AND EVENTUALLY BECOME EASTERLY AROUND 9-12 KNOTS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WINDS SHIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND THE MOST RECENT WEAK COLD FRONT,
BECOMING GUSTY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEK
LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. MIN RH
SENSITIVITIES INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WHILE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH, THOUGH COULD BE A BIT HIGHER
ALONG THE COAST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER NEXT
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 54 73 55 80 / 10 0 0 0
MCO 56 77 56 82 / 10 0 0 0
MLB 57 74 58 79 / 20 10 0 0
VRB 58 75 57 80 / 20 20 0 0
LEE 53 77 56 82 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 54 76 55 82 / 10 0 0 0
ORL 56 77 57 82 / 10 0 0 0
FPR 56 76 57 81 / 20 20 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ570-572.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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