806
FXUS62 KMLB 170531
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1231 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 634 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO TONIGHT.
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THIS WEEK WITH INCREASING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT...NORTHERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUE TO VEER
NERLY TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE TO AROUND 15 MPH INTO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THRU LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER
LAND BUT THERE WILL BE ISOLD-SCT SHOWER CHANCES OVER THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. HOWEVER, WE
COULD SEE A FEW "LOW-TOPPED" SHOWERS PUSH ONTO LAND
(SPACE/TREASURE COASTS) THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL
WINDS VEER. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BE STUBBORN AND REMAIN
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COOLER
HIGHS TODAY BEHIND THE LATEST COLD FRONT AND WILL SEE OVERNIGHT
MINS FALL INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE.
TUE-FRI...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS BUILDS ALONG THE
ATLC SEABOARD AND THEN OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLC DURING THIS PERIOD.
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.
EASTERLY LIGHT FLOW ON TUE BECOMES S/SE ON WED, LIGHT SW THU/FRI,
THOUGH THERE WILL BE AN ECSB EACH DAY WITH WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE
ALONG THE COAST WED-FRI AND SLOW TRANSITION INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE 70S AREAWIDE ON TUE, U70S AT THE COAST AND
L80S INLAND ON WED, 80F-86F AREAWIDE ON THU & 80F-88F ON FRI -
WARMEST TEMPS INTERIOR. LOWS CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE 50S, THOUGH
SOME L60S WITHIN REACH NEAR LARGER METROPOLITAN AREAS AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. EXPECT INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER
SENSITIVITIES TO RESUME INTO LATE WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG
POTENTIAL RETURNING IN THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIOD NEAR MID
TO LATE WEEK.
WEEKEND...MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS & WESTERN
ATLC PREVIOUSLY SUPPORTING NEAR ZONAL WINDS ALOFT, WILL TRANSITION
FURTHER SEAWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THIS FEATURE
WILL DRIVE OUR NEXT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH CENTRAL FL
SOMETIME THIS WEEKEND. AT PRESENT, ONLY A SCHC FOR SHOWERS IS
FORECAST WITH THIS BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO
INTO SAT (80S), WITH A POTENTIAL SLIGHT COOL-DOWN ON SUN (STILL
ABOVE SEASONAL) - THOUGH MAY BE DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. LOWS CONTINUE IN THE U50S TO L60S, AND THERE
MAY BE A POST-FRONTAL COOL-DOWN MON MORNING - GENERALLY L-M50S,
EXCEPT U40S FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH LAKE AND NORTH VOLUSIA COUNTIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
A WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD DOWN
THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE VEERING NORTH BEHIND IT
AND FURTHER NNE/NE/ENE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20
KTS WITH SEAS BUILDING 3-5 FT NEAR SHORE AND 5-7 FT WELL OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. SOME MARGINAL EXERCISE CAUTION/SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MAY RESULT. HEADING INTO TUE THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE
WORK-WEEK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. OUT INTO
THE WESTERN ATLC. DECREASING WINDS BECOMING ERLY ON TUE, SE/S TUE
NIGHT - WED AND A LIGHT OFFSHORE COMPONENT THU/FRI, THOUGH THERE
WILL BE A WEAK SEA BREEZE AT THE COAST EACH AFTN WED-FRI, WHICH
WILL "BACK" WINDS ONSHORE FOR A PERIOD BEFORE "VEERING" TO
OFFSHORE AGAIN IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIODS. ISOLD-SCT LIGHT
SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS BUILD INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE FROM MLB SOUTHWARD PROMPTING VCSH
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY. VFR
CONDITIONS GENERALLY PREVAILING, THOUGH LINGERING MVFR/IFR CIGS
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE LIFTING. NE
WINDS VEER MORE E THROUGH TODAY, REACHING UP TO 8-12 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KTS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 249 PM EST MON FEB 16 2026
WINDS SHIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST BEHIND THE MOST RECENT WEAK COLD FRONT,
BECOMING GUSTY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT THIS WEEK
LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. MIN RH
SENSITIVITIES INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WHILE WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN 10 MPH, THOUGH COULD BE A BIT HIGHER
ALONG THE COAST. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATER NEXT
WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 73 55 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 77 58 83 59 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 75 59 80 57 / 10 0 10 0
VRB 76 59 80 57 / 20 0 0 0
LEE 78 57 82 58 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 76 57 83 58 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 77 58 83 60 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 76 57 81 56 / 20 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ570-572.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...LEAHY
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