556
FXUS62 KMLB 171720
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1220 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THIS WEEK WITH INCREASING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS.
- LOW RAIN CHANCES FORECAST LATE THIS WEEKEND AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT PASSES CENTRAL FLORIDA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
TODAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD
AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TODAY. NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FURTHER ONSHORE THROUGH THE DAY, TURNING OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT. LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST
FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD THROUGH MID MORNING, BUT NOT MUCH
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. DRY CONDITIONS THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY RANGE THE MID 70S,
INCREASING INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR. COOLER ALONG
THE VOLUSIA COAST, WITH HIGHS LIMITED TO THE LOW 70S.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY... MID-LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHES TOWARDS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE BAHAMAS
INTO LATE WEEK. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA
INTO THURSDAY, VEERING WINDS SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. A DRY AND WARMING
TREND IS FORECAST WITH NO MENTIONABLE RAINFALL. MUCH OF THE AREA
REACHES THE LOW TO MID 80S ON WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WHERE A SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES INCREASE A FEW
DEGREES EACH DAY, WIDELY SPREADING THE MID TO UPPER 80S WEST OF I-95
BY FRIDAY. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WARM
A DEGREE OR TWO INTO FRIDAY. EXPECT INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE
WEATHER SENSITIVITIES TO RESUME INTO LATE WEEK. THE SET UP LOOKS
GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT, PARTICULARLY FROM THURSDAY
ONWARD, AND WILL MONITOR LOCALIZED TRENDS OVER SUBSEQUENT FORECAST
PACKAGES.
SATURDAY-MONDAY... TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE ON
SATURDAY BEFORE A PATTERN CHANGE LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT FOR A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO
PUSH THE NEXT COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, CURRENT ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO SHOW WIDE SPREAD IN
RAINFALL CHANCES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FOR NOW, KEEPING
RAIN CHANCES 20-30% ON SUNDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR
MENTIONABLE RAINFALL OCCURRING NEAR AND NORTH OF THE CAPE AND THE
ORLANDO METRO. A NOTICEABLE COOL DOWN ARRIVES MONDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY FORECAST 5-10 DEGREES BELOW THE DAILY
NORMAL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS DIMINISH TODAY AS WINDS SHIFT MORE
ONSHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH 10AM ACROSS THE
VOLUSIA AND BREVARD OFFSHORE WATERS (20-60 NM) AS SEAS UP TO 7 FT
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD THEN EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS
ALL LEGS OF THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR SEAS UP TO 6 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.
IMPROVING BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST INTO MID WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS SHIFT SOUTH 10-15 KTS ON
WEDNESDAY, BECOMING OFFSHORE 5-10 KTS ON THURSDAY. A WEAK SEA BREEZE
WILL BACK WINDS ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEEK.
SEAS 3-5 FT BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON SUBSIDE 2-3 FT INTO THE
WEEKEND. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE, DRY THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PASS THE LOCAL WATERS LATE THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD AT ALL EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TERMINALS. GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 10-12 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS ONGOING.
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KNOTS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST, BECOMING VARIABLE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. BY 15Z ON
WEDNESDAY, WINDS VEER TO OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KNOTS. RAIN IS
NOT FORECAST NEAR THE SITES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
A WARM AND DRYING TREND BUILDS INTO LATE WEEK. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN
EASTWARD TODAY, SHIFTING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MINRH SENSITIVITIES
INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WHILE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 MPH. HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS EACH DAY. THE NEXT COLD
FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING LOW
CHANCES FOR RAIN.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 56 79 57 80 / 0 0 0 10
MCO 59 83 59 84 / 0 0 0 10
MLB 60 79 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 60 80 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 57 81 58 82 / 0 0 0 10
SFB 57 82 58 83 / 0 0 0 10
ORL 59 82 60 83 / 0 0 0 10
FPR 58 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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