861
FXUS62 KMLB 172327
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
627 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 212 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THIS WEEK WITH INCREASING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- AN INCREASING HIGH RIP CURRENT THREAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEEK
WITH BUILDING SWELL IMPACTING LOCAL BEACHES. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A
LIFE-GUARDED BEACH AND NEVER ENTER THE WATER ALONE. ENTERING
THE CHILLY SURF WILL BE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED FOR MUCH OF THIS
WEEK!
- WITH THE INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELL, BOATERS WILL NEED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION AT INLETS THIS WEEK DUE TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
SURROUNDING THE TWICE DAILY OUTGOING TIDE.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40PCT) RAIN CHANCES FORECAST LATE THIS WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSES CENTRAL FLORIDA. A SIGNIFICANT COOL-
DOWN IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THIS LATEST FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 212 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT...EASTERLY WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH SOME GUSTS 20-25
MPH, HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO IN THE L-M70S THIS AFTERNOON, EXCEPT A FEW U70S WELL INTO
THE INTERIOR. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT CONTINUE TO VEER ESE/SE AS HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH CONTINUES TO PULL FURTHER SEAWARD INTO THE
WESTERN ATLC. FEW SPRINKLES AND "LOW-TOPPED" SHOWERS STREAMING
ONSHORE ACROSS SOUTHERN ST. LUCIE AND MARTIN COUNTIES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY MEASURABLE PRECIP
VALUES VERY LIGHT. GENERALLY DRIER CONDITIONS MOST EVERYWHERE
ELSE. OVERNIGHT MINS FALL INTO THE 50S AREAWIDE, PERHAPS L60S FOR
IMMEDIATE SOUTH BREVARD/TREASURE COASTS AND ADJACENT BARRIER
ISLANDS.
WED-FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC CONTINUES TO
PUSH FURTHER SEAWARD WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND INCREASING
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT. S/SSW FLOW ON WED BECOMES LIGHT SW/W
THU/FRI, THOUGH THERE WILL BE AN ECSB EACH DAY WITH WINDS BECOMING
ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST AND SLOW TRANSITION INLAND EACH AFTERNOON.
HIGHS IN THE U70S TO AROUND 80F AT THE COAST AND L80S INLAND ON WED,
80F-86F AREAWIDE ON THU & 80F-88F ON FRI - WARMEST TEMPS INTERIOR.
LOWS CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60F, THOUGH SOME L60S
WITHIN REACH NEAR LARGER METROPOLITAN AREAS AND ALONG THE COAST EACH
MORNING. EXPECT INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER SENSITIVITIES TO
RESUME INTO LATE WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME FOG POTENTIAL RETURNING IN
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING PERIODS TOWARD MID-LATE WEEK.
SAT-TUE...MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE BAHAMAS & WESTERN ATLC
PREVIOUSLY SUPPORTING NEAR ZONAL WINDS ALOFT, WILL TRANSITION
FURTHER SEAWARD OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE APPROACH OF AN UPPER
TROUGH ENCOMPASSING THE EASTERN CONUS LASTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL DRIVE OUR NEXT COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THROUGH CENTRAL FL, LIKELY DURING THE DAY ON SUN. AT PRESENT, WE
CARRY A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40PCT) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. NO THUNDER
MENTION OVER LAND JUST YET, BUT A FEW ISOLD LIGHTNING STORMS
POSSIBLE ON SUN OVER THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS
LIKELY TO BE BREEZY/GUSTY ON SUN. ANOTHER FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT
COOL-DOWN WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL ABOVE CLIMO INTO SAT (80S) WITH SOME
RECORDS WITHIN REACH. HIGHS ON SUN IN THE U70S TO AROUND 80F
ALONG/NORTH OF I-4 WITH L-M80S SOUTHWARD. MON/TUE HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 60S AND MAY STRUGGLE TO 60F ACROSS PORTIONS OF VOLUSIA/NORTH
BREVARD COUNTIES. CONSISTENT LOWS SUN MORNING AS PREVIOUS DAYS, THEN
40S FOR MINS MON MORNING - LOWEST IN L40S ACROSS NORTH LAKE/NORTH
VOLUSIA COUNTIES. LOWS TUE MORNING IN THE M-U30S OVER MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR WITH L40S ACROSS THE COAST AND ORLANDO METRO.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 212 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
DIMINISHING ERLY WINDS 10-15 KTS, BUT INCOMING NORTHEAST SWELL
KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED 5-6 FT THRU TONIGHT IN THE GULF STREAM AND
3-5 FT ELSEWHERE. CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE SEAS
IN THE GULF STREAM. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER ESE/SE/SSE THRU THE
NIGHT. WHILE THE PERSISTENT SWELL CONTINUES INTO LATE WEEK, 5-6 FT
SEAS ENTERING WED WILL BECOME 3-5 FT AREAWIDE BY THE END OF THE
DAY. VEERING (S/SW) 8-15 KT WINDS "BACKING" ALONG THE COAST EACH
DAY, WITH SEA BREEZE FORMATION, CONTINUES INTO LATE WEEK WITH
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS (COUPLE BOUTS OF 12-17 KT
SPEEDS OFFSHORE). SEAS 3-5 FT GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO 2-4 FT INTO
LATE EXTENDED. GENERALLY DRY INTO LATE WEEK, EXCEPT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OVER THE GULF STREAM. ELSE, THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE ISN'T EXPECTED UNTIL SUN AND THAT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS (WIND/SEAS) LASTING
INTO THE NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH
ACCOMPANYING FRONT ON SUN.
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THIS WEEK AT INLETS DURING THE
TWICE DAILY OUTGOING TIDE. SMALL CRAFT BOATERS WILL NEED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION HERE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 627 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL SHIFT FARTHER
EASTWARD INTO THE OPEN ATLANTIC TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST AS IT WILL REMAIN DRY, AND FOG
FORMATION LOOKS UNLIKELY INTO TONIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SOME POTENTIAL THAT WE COULD SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR CIGS BETWEEN
2-3KFT DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
E/SE WINDS DIMINISH TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS TONIGHT. WINDS THEN BECOME
S/SW INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AROUND 8-10 KNOTS, EXCEPT SE AROUND
10-12 KNOTS ALONG THE COAST FROM KTIX SOUTHWARD AS THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE FORMS AND MOVES SLIGHTLY INLAND.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 212 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2026
A WARM AND DRYING TREND BUILDS INTO LATE WEEK. WINDS TURN
EASTWARD 10-15 MPH TODAY WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS, SHIFTING SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. MIN RH SENSITIVITIES INCREASE FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD
WHILE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE LESS THAN 10 MPH. HOWEVER, SLIGHTLY
HIGHER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS EACH DAY. THE NEXT STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND, BRINGING LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40PCT)
CHANCES FOR RAIN. BREEZY/GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 56 79 57 80 / 0 0 0 10
MCO 59 83 59 84 / 0 0 0 10
MLB 60 79 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 60 80 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 57 81 58 82 / 0 0 0 10
SFB 57 82 58 83 / 0 0 0 10
ORL 59 82 60 83 / 0 0 0 10
FPR 58 81 58 83 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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