721
FXUS62 KMLB 181720
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1220 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THIS WEEK WITH INCREASING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- AN INCREASING HIGH RIP CURRENT THREAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEEK
WITH BUILDING SWELL IMPACTING LOCAL BEACHES. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A
LIFE-GUARDED BEACH AND NEVER ENTER THE WATER ALONE. ENTERING
THE CHILLY SURF WILL BE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED FOR MUCH OF THIS
WEEK!
- WITH THE INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELL, BOATERS WILL NEED TO
EXERCISE CAUTION AT INLETS THIS WEEK DUE TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
SURROUNDING THE TWICE DAILY OUTGOING TIDE.
- LOW TO MEDIUM (30-50PCT) RAIN CHANCES FORECAST LATE THIS WEEKEND
AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSES CENTRAL FLORIDA. A SIGNIFICANT
COOL-DOWN IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THIS LATEST FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT... WINDS SHIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR, AND EFFICIENT SURFACE
HEATING WILL ALLOW FOR A SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP. CONDITIONS REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY WITH NO MENTIONABLE PRECIP. HIGH-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA
TONIGHT, ADVECTING INTO PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. MOTORIST SHOULD STAY ALERT FOR SUDDEN CHANGES IN
VISIBILITY. LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
A LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY. RIP CURRENTS CAN SWEEP EVEN
THE BEST SWIMMERS AWAY FROM SHORE INTO DEEPER WATER. ENTERING THE
SURF IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED!
THURSDAY-SATURDAY... A WARM AND DRYING TREND CONTINUES, INCREASING
DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER SENSITIVITIES. LIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW HOLDS
IN PLACE AS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES NEAR OR SOUTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE BAHAMAS LATE WEEK.
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ON THURSDAY, CLIMB NEAR DAILY RECORD
VALUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, REACHING THE UPPER
80S. A SEA BREEZE SHOULD DEVELOP EACH DAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES ONLY
SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST, RANGING THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 50S ON THURSDAY WARM INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER
60S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. CONDITIONS REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, AND
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR LOCALIZED TRENDS.
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS, AS WELL AS ROUGH SURF, IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AT ALL LOCAL BEACHES THROUGH LATE WEEK. HEED THE ADVICE OF
LIFEGUARDS, BEACH PATROL FLAGS, AND SIGNS. ENTERING THE CHILLY SURF
IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED!
SUNDAY-TUESDAY... THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WEST WINDS BECOME BREEZY AND GUSTY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TURNING NORTHWEST INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS THE FRONT PASSES. RAIN CHANCES HAVE SHOWN ONLY A SLIGHT NUDGE
UPWARD, INCREASING TO 30-50%. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL VARY BASED
ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, BUT INCREASING CLOUD COVER LOOKS TO KEEP
AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-4 IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. POTENTIAL
FOR MORE SUNSHINE FURTHER SOUTH COULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. NOTICEABLY COOLER MONDAY WITH MORNING LOWS
IN THE 40S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. TUESDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD
WITH CURRENT NBM PROBABILITIES SUGGESTING MODERATE CONFIDENCE
(40-60%) FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW 40 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY ACROSS MORE RURAL LOCATIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION NEAR INLETS WHERE A LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL PROMOTE HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS SURROUNDING THE
OUTGOING TIDE. THIS SWELL HAS ALSO KEPT SEAS ELEVATED UP TO 6 FT IN
THE GULF STREAM, AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN THE GULF
STREAM THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS SEAS SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE, BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD ALLOW FOR IMPROVING BOATING CONDITIONS INTO
LATE WEEK. WINDS PRIMARILY OUT OF THE SOUTH AROUND 10 KTS. HOWEVER,
SEA BREEZE AND LAND BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL INCREASE AND SHIFT WINDS
ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON WHILE SHIFTING WINDS
OFFSHORE AT NIGHT. SEAS 3-5 FT BY THURSDAY CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE,
BECOMING WIDELY 2-3 FT BY SATURDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PASS THE WATERS ON SUNDAY WITH DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOSTLY DRY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
DRY, VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SW WINDS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SE WINDS ALONG THE COAST PERSIST AROUND 10
KNOTS, BECOMING LIGHTER OUT OF THE SSW OVERNIGHT AROUND 5 KNOTS.
STRATUS AND SEA FOG EXPANDING EASTWARD FROM THE GULF WILL LEAD TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR DECREASING VIS AND CIG AFTER 09Z, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AT THIS TIME, LEE HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING THESE REDUCTIONS, SO MAINTAINED A PREVAILING MVFR LINE.
TEMPOS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AT LEE FOR IFR REDUCTIONS AND AT MCO
AND THE OTHER INTERIOR TERMINALS FOR AT LEAST MVFR REDUCTIONS,
BUT IT WAS SIMPLY TOO FAR OUT TO ADD THEM IN AT THIS TIME. VIS AND
CIGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z WITH WINDS PICKING UP
OUT OF THE SSW AROUND 10 KNOTS ONCE AGAIN INTO THURSDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST WED FEB 18 2026
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROMOTE A WARM AND DRYING TREND INTO
LATE WEEK, INCREASING MINRH SENSITIVITIES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS, GENERALLY REMAINING 10 MPH OR LESS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS
ALONG THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS EACH DAY. INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MIXING HEIGHTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY GOOD SMOKE
DISPERSION THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR. THE NEXT STRONG
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THE AREA SUNDAY, BRINGING A LOW TO
MEDIUM (30-50%) CHANCE FOR RAIN. BREEZY/GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
PATCHY FOG IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING FAVORABLE FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 58 81 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 61 84 62 88 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 58 81 60 83 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 58 83 60 85 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 60 82 61 85 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 59 84 61 88 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 61 84 62 87 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 57 83 59 85 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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