515
FXUS62 KMLB 190557
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1257 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
- AREAS OF FOG FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING,
WITH DENSE FOG POSSIBLE.
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THIS WEEK WITH INCREASING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- A HIGH RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL EXIST THROUGH LATE WEEK. ALWAYS
SWIM NEAR A LIFE-GUARDED BEACH AND NEVER ENTER THE WATER ALONE.
ENTERING THE CHILLY SURF WILL BE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED FOR MUCH
OF THIS WEEK!
- LOW TO MEDIUM (30-40PCT) RAIN CHANCES AND LOW (20PCT) LIGHTNING
STORM CHANCES FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSES
CENTRAL FLORIDA. A SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEHIND THIS LATEST FRONT.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 824 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
MAIN WEATHER CONCERN INTO TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG
DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT IN SHOWING
AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS FORMING AND SHIFTING EASTWARD INTO EAST
CENTRAL FL LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HAVE
INCREASED FOG COVERAGE IN THE FORECAST TO "AREAS" FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE COAST OF VOLUSIA COUNTY, WHERE GREATEST
FOG POTENTIAL EXISTS. DENSE FOG, PRODUCING VISIBILITIES OF A HALF
MILE OR LESS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOG MAY ALSO BE ABLE TO MIX WITH
LINGERING SMOKE FROM ACTIVE OR SMOLDERING BRUSH FIRES TO PRODUCE
LIMITED VISIBILITIES ALONG NEARBY ROADWAYS. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE
ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING VISIBILITIES LATE TONIGHT AND DURING
THE THURSDAY MORNING COMMUTE, AND SHOULD SLOW DOWN IF ENCOUNTERING
DENSE FOG.
OTHERWISE, FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS CONTINUING AND LOWS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL IN
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 158 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS 10-15 MPH "BACKING"
ESE/SE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE FORMATION.
TEMPERATURES ABOVE CLIMO IN THE U70S AT THE COAST WITH VALUES NEAR
80 TO L80S INTO THE INTERIOR. WESTERN OKEECHOBEE COUNTY MAY REALIZE
M80S FOR MAXES. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT RETURNING TO AN OFFSHORE
COMPONENT AREAWIDE. CONTINUED DRY CONDITIONS WITH PSUNNY SKIES.
BIGGEST CHALLENGE THIS PERIOD WILL BE POTENTIAL FOG/LOW (STRATUS)
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING. SEA FOG ALONG
THE WEST COAST TONIGHT MAY ADVECT INTO PORTIONS OF ECFL LATE
OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY SEE SOME LOW CLOUD FORMATION AS WELL
OVER PORTIONS OF THE COVERAGE WARNING AREA - ESPECIALLY THE I-4
CORRIDOR. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY (DENSE) FOG IN THE GRIDS/ZONES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. MOTORISTS SHOULD STAY ALERT FOR SUDDEN
CHANGES IN VISIBILITY EARLY THU MORNING. OVERNIGHT MINS MILD IN
THE U50S WITH A FEW L60S SPRINKLED IN NEAR LARGER METROPOLITAN
AREAS AND PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST/BARRIER
ISLANDS.
THU-SAT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLC CONTINUES TO
PUSH FURTHER SEAWARD WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE SOUTH-
CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHWARD INTO
NORTH FL BY SUNRISE SUN MORNING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
INCREASING TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE, THOUGH A LOW (20PCT) RAIN
CHANCE WILL BE FORECAST LATE SAT OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LAKE/VOLUSIA COUNTIES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY.
SW/W FLOW ON THU-SAT, WILL "BACK" ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST WITH SEA BREEZE FORMATION. HIGHS IN THE L80S (PERHAPS M80S
FRI/SAT) EACH AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST WITH M-U80S INTO THE
INTERIOR. NEAR RECORD HIGHS FORECAST ON FRI/SAT ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. LOWS CONTINUE IN THE U50S TO L60S. EXPECT
INCREASING DROUGHT AND FIRE WEATHER SENSITIVITIES TO CONTINUE. THERE
WILL BE PATCHY TO AREAS OF (DENSE) FOG POTENTIAL IN THE OVERNIGHT
AND EARLY MORNING PERIODS THRU LATE WEEK.
SUN-WED...MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WILL
FORCE A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL FL DURING THE
DAY ON SUN. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER/DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WE CONTINUE TO CARRY A MEDIUM (30-40PCT) RAIN
CHANCE AND HAVE ADDED A LOW (20PCT) LIGHTNING STORM CHANCE FOR
THE DAY ON SUN. AGAIN, ONLY BRIEF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND WILL NOT PUT MUCH IF ANY DENT INTO
THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS LIKELY TO
BE BREEZY/GUSTY ON SUN.
HIGHS ON SUN IN THE U70S TO AROUND 80F ALONG/NORTH OF I-4 WITH L-
M80S SOUTHWARD. MON/TUE HIGHS MAINLY IN THE L-M60S AND MAY STRUGGLE
INTO THE U50S TO AROUND 60F ACROSS PORTIONS OF VOLUSIA/NORTH BREVARD
COUNTIES. TEMPERATURES MODERATE ON WED INTO THE L-M70S FOR MOST.
LOWS DROP MON MORNING INTO THE 40S AREAWIDE - LOWEST IN L40S TO
AROUND 40F ACROSS NORTH LAKE/NORTH VOLUSIA COUNTIES. TUE MORNING IS
EXPECTED TO BE THE COLDEST IN THE EXTENDED WITH MINS IN THE M-U30S
NOW FOR MUCH OF ECFL. NEAR 40F TO L40S FOR MUCH OF THE COAST &
ORLANDO METRO WITH BARRIER ISLANDS IN THE M-U40S. WINDS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED SUN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWEST MIN WIND CHILLS/APPARENT TEMPS
MON MORNING IN THE M-U30S TO L40S AREAWIDE - HIGHEST SOUTHWARD AND
NEAR THE TREASURE COAST. LOWEST WIND CHILLS OVERNIGHT MON INTO TUE
MORNING ARE FORECAST IN THE U20S TO M30S FOR MOST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 158 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-15 KTS, WITH PERSISTENT NE NORTHEAST SWELL
KEEPING SEAS ELEVATED 5-6 FT THRU TONIGHT IN THE GULF STREAM AND 3-5
FT ELSEWHERE. FROM THU INTO SAT, WE WILL SEE A REPEATED CYCLE OF
OFFSHORE (SW/W) WINDS EXCEPT FOR "BACKING" ALONG THE COAST EACH
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING WITH SEA BREEZE FORMATION. SPEEDS CONTINUE
10-15 KTS BUT MAY SEE SHORT DURATIONS OF UP TO 15-18 KTS OFFSHORE
AT TIMES. SEAS GENERALLY 3-5 FT THRU THU NIGHT SUBSIDING TO 2-4
FT INTO FRI EVENING, THEN AOB 3 FT THRU SAT EVENING. BOTH
WINDS/SEAS BEGIN TO RAMP UP THRU THE DAY ON SUN/SUN NIGHT WITH
APPROACH/PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. GALE CONDITIONS MAY BE
MET SUN NIGHT INTO EARLY MON. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HAZARDOUS FOR
BOATING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
GENERALLY DRY THRU SAT WITH SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES SAT NIGHT (NORTH).
SCT RAIN CHANCES WITH ISOLD LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES AREAWIDE ON SUN
WITH ACCOMPANYING FRONT.
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL EXIST THIS WEEK AT INLETS DURING THE TWICE
DAILY OUTGOING TIDE. SMALL CRAFT BOATERS WILL NEED TO EXERCISE
CAUTION HERE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1255 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON EXTENT OF STRATUS AND FOG SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS EC FL AFT 08Z TONIGHT. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE MCO/SFB/DAB TAFS TO SHOW LESS CIG/VSBY REDUCTION WHILE
MAINTAINING THE TEMPO FROM 09Z-13Z. IN FACT, NBM PROBS ARE NOW LESS
THAN 20% FOR EVEN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AT MCO. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS SOUTH FL WILL PRODUCE A S/SW FLOW
THU WITH SPEEDS 8-10 KNOTS. A SE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST SOUTH OF THE CAPE AT 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS
POSSIBLE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 158 PM EST WED FEB 18 2026
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE A WARM AND DRYING TREND INTO
LATE WEEK, INCREASING MIN RH SENSITIVITIES. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL PERSIST, GENERALLY REMAINING 10 MPH OR LESS. SLIGHTLY HIGHER
WINDS ALONG THE COAST AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS EACH DAY. INCREASING
TEMPERATURES AND MIXING HEIGHTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY GOOD SMOKE
DISPERSION THIS WEEK, ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR. THE NEXT STRONG
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS THE AREA SUNDAY, BRINGING A LOW TO
MEDIUM (30-40%) RAIN CHANCE AND LOW (20%) LIGHTNING STORM CHANCE.
BREEZY/GUSTY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ON SUNDAY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. MUCH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASING LOW MIN RH CONCERNS.
PATCHY (LOCALLY DENSE) FOG IS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH CONDITIONS
REMAINING FAVORABLE FOR FOG OR LOW STRATUS CLOUD DEVELOPMENT, AGAIN,
EACH NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 82 60 85 60 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 84 62 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 81 62 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 83 62 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 82 62 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 84 62 87 61 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 84 63 87 63 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 83 61 84 60 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...WEITLICH
AVIATION...KELLY
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