250
FXUS62 KMLB 191146
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
646 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 244 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG FORECAST EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH DENSE
FOG POSSIBLE. FOG THAT COULD BECOME DENSE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THE NEXT COUPLE NIGHTS/MORNINGS.
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THIS WEEK WITH INCREASING WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS. NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
- A HIGH RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL EXIST THROUGH LATE WEEK. ALWAYS
SWIM NEAR A LIFE-GUARDED BEACH AND NEVER ENTER THE WATER ALONE.
ENTERING THE CHILLY SURF WILL BE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED FOR MUCH
OF THIS WEEK!
- LOW TO MEDIUM (30-40PCT) RAIN CHANCES AND LOW (20PCT) LIGHTNING
STORM CHANCES FORECAST ON SUNDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSES
CENTRAL FLORIDA. A SIGNIFICANT COOL-DOWN IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEHIND THIS LATEST FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 244 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...THE RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING TO
FLORIDA FROM THE WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC SETTLES SOUTH OF THE
AREA, PROMOTING A PERIOD OF OFFSHORE FLOW PUNCTUATED ALONG THE
COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY A LATE EVENING EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE PUSHING INLAND. THERE REMAINS POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS AND FOG TO PUSH IN FROM WCFL THIS MORNING, PRODUCING
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS LESS THAN A MILE AT TIMES, THOUGH THE MOST
RECENT GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF SOME. HOWEVER, FOG WILL REMAIN A
PARTICULAR CONCERN NEAR ACTIVE OR SMOLDERING WILDFIRES WHERE IT
COULD MIX WITH SMOKE AND PRODUCE LOCALLY VERY DENSE FOG ALONG
NEARBY ROADWAYS, AND MOTORISTS SHOULD STAY ALERT FOR SUDDEN
VISIBILITY CHANGES. ONCE THIS MORNING'S FOG CLEARS, QUIET BUT
WARM. AFTERNOON HIGHS CREEP UP A COUPLE MORE DEGREES INTO THE
L-M80S, PUSHING CLOSER TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, BUT FALLING
SHORT OF DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR NOW. OVERNIGHTS ALSO
REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL WITH LOWS IN THE U50S-L60S. NO
MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES.
DESPITE THE INVITING WARM WEATHER AT THE BEACHES, A HIGH RISK FOR
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS FROM LONG PERIOD SWELL CONTINUES,
AND ENTERING THIS DANGEROUS SURF IS NOT ADVISED.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...MORE OF THE SAME AS THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS
STATIONED SOUTH OF THE AREA, AND HIGH PRESSURE SUBTLY BUILDS
ALOFT. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
FROM THE OVERNIGHTS INTO THE MORNINGS, AND THE ENVIRONMENT
CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BECOME EVEN MORE FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY DENSE
FOG AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS LESS THAN A MILE. AFTER FOG CLEARS,
MOSTLY QUIET AS THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES. AFTERNOON HIGHS
CREEP UP A BIT MORE INTO THE M-U80S IN THE CONTINUED OFFSHORE
FLOW, BECOMING PARTICULARLY WARM ON SATURDAY. INLAND CLIMATE
SITES ARE FORECAST TO WARM WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF THEIR DAILY
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS, AND THERE ARE LOW CHANCES (UP TO AROUND
30%) TO TIE MONTHLY RECORDS. WHILE DAYTONA IS CURRENTLY FORECAST
TO REACH THE M80S, A COUPLE LOW HANGING DAILY RECORDS HAPPEN TO
FALL ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ON THE NOTE OF HIGHS IN THE M80S ON
THE COASTAL CORRIDOR, THESE VALUES ARE FORECAST UNDER THE
ASSUMPTION THE SEA BREEZE IS ABLE TO PUSH INLAND EARLY/QUICKLY
ENOUGH TO UNDERCUT THE OFFSHORE FLOW, AND THERE IS POTENTIAL
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR COULD REACH THE U80S IF THE
SEA BREEZE IS SLOW OR BECOMES PINNED. THE VOLUSIA COAST IS THE
MOST LIKELY FOR THIS UPSET TO OCCUR.
AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST, REMAINING DRY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
(ONCE FOG AND STRATUS BURN OFF). OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE U50-L60S. A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP
CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...BIG CHANGE-UP AS A STRONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
SEABOARD PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY. SOME MODEST RAIN CHANCES
AROUND 40% PRECEDE THE FRONT, BUT RAINFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LACKING AS EVEN THE TYPICALLY ENTHUSIASTIC NBM HAS ONLY A 10%
CHANCE FOR GREATER THAN A QUARTER INCH, NOT EVEN DENTING THE
WORSENING DROUGHT CONDITIONS. CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOW
BUT NOT NON-EXISTENT AT AROUND 20%. FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME SENSITIVE SUNDAY AS WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-30 MPH IN AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE FRONT, AND WORSEN MONDAY AS BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE WHILE HUMIDITY PLUMMETS.
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT. WHILE
LOWS "ONLY" DROP INTO THE 40S SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING,
NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT WINDS HOLDING AROUND 10 MPH WILL PUSH
WIND CHILLS INTO THE 30S. TEMPERATURES FURTHER DROP INTO THE 30S
ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, AND AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING (PARTS OF THE COAST AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES
RECOVER INTO THE 40S), DRIVING WIND CHILLS INTO THE U20S-M30S
MONDAY NIGHT, AND M30S-M40S TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE M70S-L80S SUNDAY AS THE FRONT WORKS ACROSS THE AREA,
DROPPING TO THE U50S-L60S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT, MOVING
OVER FLORIDA AROUND MID-WEEK. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH, AND
WARMING RETURNS THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. LOWS RETURN TO THE
40S WEDNESDAY NIGHT, AND THE 50S THURSDAY NIGHT. NO RAINFALL
EXPECTED OTHER THAN WITH THE FRONT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 244 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...LONG PERIOD SWELL INTERACTING WITH THE OUTGOING
TIDES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ROUGH CONDITIONS NEAR SPACE AND
TREASURE COAST INLETS, AND SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION BETWEEN 10-5 AM/PM. RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING TO FLORIDA SETTLES SOUTH OF
THE AREA. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE SW 5-15 KTS IN THE LATE
OVERNIGHT AND MORNING BACK S-SE IN THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
WITH THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. WIND SPEEDS TICK CLOSER TO 15 KTS
IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT, AND MAY PUSH OVER FOR A FEW HOURS WELL
OFFSHORE. SEAS 3-5 FT. DRY CONDITIONS.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH
SATURDAY, THOUGH COULD STILL SEE SOME ROUGH SEAS NEAR INLETS
DURING THE OUTGOING TIDES FRIDAY. RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED SOUTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY, CONTINUING
THE SAME DIURNAL WIND PATTERN AS TODAY (THURSDAY). BOATING
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE SUNDAY, BECOMING HAZARDOUS AND POTENTIALLY
REACHING GALE CONDITIONS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. WESTERLY WINDS
10-20 KTS SUNDAY MORNING SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND THE FRONT,
INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS BY THE EVENING, AND 20-30 KTS OVERNIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING. SEAS RESPOND BY BUILDING FROM 2-4 FT SUNDAY
MORNING TO 6-11 FT BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT BETWEEN THE APPROACHING HIGH
AND DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.
IMPROVEMENT IN BOATING CONDITIONS IS FORECAST TO BE VERY GRADUAL,
WITH POOR TO HAZARDOUS WINDS AND SEAS LINGERING INTO TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT OTHERWISE
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
STRATUS AND FOG PRODUCING IFR/LIFR CONDS ESP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TERMINALS BUT WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD TOWARD LEE/SFB/DAB OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE HOURS. A LITTLE MORE WIND MAY PREVENT VSBYS FROM
CRASHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS BUT SHOW TEMPO IFR VSBYS.
VFR CONDS RETURN BY 14-15Z WITH S/SW FLOW 8-10 KNOTS AND A SE SEA
BREEZE REACHING COASTAL TERMINALS MLB SOUTHWARD AFT 19Z. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE AFT 06Z TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 244 AM EST THU FEB 19 2026
TODAY-SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EXTENDING TO FLORIDA SETTLES SOUTH OF THE AREA, PRODUCING
GENERALLY OFFSHORE (S-SW) WINDS, BECOMING MORE W-SW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON, THAT SHIFT S-SE ALONG THE COAST AND PORTIONS OF THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. WINDS SPEEDS 5-10 MPH, CLOSER
TO THE UPPER END BETWEEN 2 PM AND 5 PM, SETTLE TO 5 MPH OR LESS
OVERNIGHT. GRADUAL WARMING CAUSES HUMIDITY VALUES TO SLOWLY
DECREASE, WITH MIN RHS 40-60% TODAY BECOMING 35-55% SATURDAY.
AFTERNOON DISPERSION VALUES GENERALLY VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT, BUT
COULD BE MORE FAIR ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...SENSITIVE TO POSSIBLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
PUSH THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA SUNDAY, PRECEDED BY SOME MODEST
(30-40%) RAIN CHANCES, AND LOW (AROUND 20%) CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING
STORMS DURING THE DAY. BREEZY/GUSTING CONDITIONS DEVELOP SUNDAY
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE W-NW AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH WITH 25-30 MPH. MIN RHS RECOVER A BIT SUNDAY
TO 45-65% WITH INCREASED MOISTURE NEAR THE FRONT, THEN FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BECOME CRITICAL MONDAY AS MIN RHS CRASH
TO 25-40% WHILE NW WINDS REMAIN 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH,
POSSIBLY TO 30 MPH. AFTERNOON DISPERSION VALUES VERY GOOD TO
EXCELLENT. RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 82 60 85 60 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 84 62 87 62 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 81 62 84 61 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 83 62 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 82 62 85 61 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 84 62 87 61 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 84 63 87 63 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 83 61 84 60 / 0 0 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...KELLY
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