887
FXUS62 KMLB 270609
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
109 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 620 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
- MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING, WITH RAIN CHANCES AND
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS INCREASING FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT.
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
- A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS PERSISTS AT AREA BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 112 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH FIRE DANGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, DUE TO BREEZY
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND DRY AIR. INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE ARE LIMITING FACTORS ACROSS THE SOUTH. RED
FLAG WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WARMER
AGAIN TODAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
BREEZY WINDS 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20-25 MPH WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING, THEN BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT SINCE THE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE AREA.
HAVE INCLUDED THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, AS MODELS DISAGREE
ON THE CHANCES FOR FOG. THEY DO AGREE, HOWEVER, THAT THE HIGHEST
CHANCES (20-50% FOR VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 3 MILES DEPENDING ON
THE GUIDANCE) ARE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA. USE CAUTION ON THE ROADS OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY
IN THE VICINITY OF ANY ONGOING OR RECENT FIRES. TONIGHT, LOWS
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE.
THIS MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
TWO THIS EVENING ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL, BEFORE
LINGERING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FROM THE EARLIER SEA BREEZE VEERS
OFFSHORE WITH THE PREVAILING FLOW. POPS AROUND 20% OVERNIGHT.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A SLOW, WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST US FRIDAY, THEN PASS THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. EARLY PORTIONS OF THE DAY ON FRIDAY ARE FORECAST
TO REMAIN DRY, WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 10-15 MPH.
BY THE AFTERNOON, INCREASING MOISTURE AND A PASSING SHORTWAVE
WILL BEGIN TO INTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES. MOST CAMS SUGGEST SHOWERS
DEVELOP NORTH AND WEST OF I-4 BY 1-4 PM. CAPE IS FORECAST TO BE
MODEST THE AREA, WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 80S, SO LIGHTNING CHANCES THERE REMAIN BELOW 15%. A LATER
START IS EXPECTED FOR AREAS TO THE SOUTH, WITH CAMS FOCUSING
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. LOWER CLOUD COVER THROUGH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MID-80S FOR SOUTHERN
INTERIOR LOCATIONS. THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ANY STORMS IN THIS
AREA WILL ALSO BE THE REASON TO MONITOR FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS.
LINGERING DRY AIR ABOVE 800MB WILL SUPPORT DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000
J/KG FOR AREAS NEAR MELBOURNE AND SOUTH. SHOULD ANY STORMS BE ABLE
TO SURVIVE THIS LAYER AND UTILIZE THE SEA BREEZE, THEY MAY BE
ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE AND PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH.
THIS THREAT IS VERY CONDITIONAL, AS IS THE THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL
DUE TO 500MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -12C AND A QUICK SPIN UP ALONG A
STORM'S COLLISION WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS 30-40% AREA-WIDE
FRIDAY.
SHOWERS PERSIST FRIDAY NIGHT, AS THE FRONT DROPS THROUGH NORTH
FLORIDA AND ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVES TRAVERSE THE STATE ALOFT. POPS
INCREASE, AS PWATS MOISTEN TO 1.5-1.6", BECOMING 50-70%. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES ARE FORECAST NEAR AND NORTH OF ORLANDO, CLOSEST TO
THE FRONT. THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE, THOUGH THE STRONG
STORM THREAT IS LIMITED OVERNIGHT. LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID-60S.
AS THE FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD ON SATURDAY, MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED STORMS ARE
FORECAST. INCREASED CAPE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AT 500MB
(-13 TO -14C) COULD ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON, WITH SMALL HAIL. POPS 60-70% AREA WIDE ON SATURDAY,
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES MOVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS
ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S, WHILE VOLUSIA COUNTY
REMAINS IN THE MID-70S WITH ONSHORE FLOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
RAINFALL TOTALS CONTINUE TO BE TRICKY DUE TO DEVIATIONS BETWEEN
MODELS AND A LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. THE PROBABILITY OF
AT LEAST 0.5" IS NOW 60-80% AREA-WIDE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AND
THE CHANCE FOR AT LEAST 1" IS NOW 40-60%. AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF
MELBOURNE NOW HAVE A 20-30% CHANCE OF AT LEAST 2". AREAS THAT SEE
TRAINING SHOWERS AND STORMS OR ANY STRONGER STORMS COULD SEE
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS TO 2-3".
SUNDAY-THURSDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...STRONG AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST U.S. FROM SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW
THAT WILL MAINTAIN THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ONSHORE
MOVING SHOWERS INTO NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ON
THE LOWER END (AROUND 20-30%) THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
AREA FROM EARLY TO MIDWEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 112 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE RIDGE AXIS PRESENT OVER THE AREA TODAY BREAKS DOWN INTO
FRIDAY, AS A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE LOCAL WATERS.
BREEZY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW 10-15 KTS IN THE MORNINGS BECOMES SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE
IN COVERAGE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST IN THE
AFTERNOONS. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT REMAIN UNDER 15 KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS 2-3 FT.
HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE AREA LATE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ONSHORE FLOW PREVAILS, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS REMAINING POSSIBLE. WINDS STAY 15 KTS OR
LESS THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE INCREASING TO 15-25 KTS MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA BUT THEN STALLS
ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA. SEAS 2-4 FT THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BUILDING TO
UP TO 6-9 FT BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, AS SWELL ENTERS THE LOCAL
WATERS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE REDUCED CIGS AND PERHAPS FOG LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, BRIEFLY CAUSING
CATEGORICAL RESTRICTIONS OVER SOME TERMINALS EARLY FRIDAY. HAVE
KEPT A 4 HOUR TEMPO FOR LOWER CIGS FOR MCO, SFB, ISM, AND LEE. MVFR
VIS REDUCTIONS WERE INCLUDED IN THE TEMPO FOR ISM AND LEE. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT BY MID MORNING. RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORMS
RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH STARTING AT 18/20Z WITH
VCTS STARTING AT 20Z ALONG THE COAST FROM TIX SOUTHWARD. VCTS WILL
THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA STARTING 01Z. NO TEMPOS FOR
CONVECTION YET, BUT WILL LIKELY BE ADDED IN A LATER PACKAGE WHEN
TIMING AND IMPACTS WILL BE BETTER KNOWN. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING
MVFR/IFR CIGS DEVELOPING AND MOVING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE
INCLUDED MVFR CIG REDUCTIONS FOR MCO STARTING AROUND 05Z FOR NOW.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 112 PM EST THU FEB 26 2026
AN ELEVATED TO HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL EXIST ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE NEAR 15 MPH, WITH MIN RH
VALUES DROPPING AS LOW AS 30-40 PERCENT. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH 6 PM TODAY.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10-15 MPH WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY,
WHICH WILL INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND IS FORECAST TO
KEEP RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL VALUES. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT FROM LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS
THIS BOUNDARY MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE REGION. POPS INCREASE FROM
30 TO 40 PERCENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON TO 60-70 PERCENT ON SATURDAY.
SOME LIGHTNING STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE, WITH GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW STRONG STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL AND SATURDAY AFTERNOON. DISPERSION VALUES WILL BECOME
VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT TODAY AND FRIDAY, WITH CONTROL ISSUES
POSSIBLE. BY SATURDAY, HIGH RAIN CHANCES AND LIGHTER WINDS WILL
LEAD TO POOR TO FAIR DISPERSION.
PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 81 60 72 56 / 60 80 70 20
MCO 83 64 76 60 / 60 70 70 30
MLB 81 62 75 59 / 60 70 70 40
VRB 83 62 78 59 / 60 70 70 50
LEE 81 61 75 56 / 70 80 70 20
SFB 83 62 75 57 / 70 80 70 20
ORL 83 63 75 59 / 60 70 70 30
FPR 84 61 79 58 / 60 60 70 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEAHY
AVIATION...WATSON
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