306
FXUS62 KMLB 271140
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
640 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 230 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
- PATCHY, LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE AREAWIDE THIS MORNING,
MORE LIKELY NEAR THE KISSIMMEE RIVER, LAKE OKEECHOBEE, AND THE
TREASURE COAST
- RAIN CHANCES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STORMS INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON, CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES; A
STRONG STORM PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OR HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT
- NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH NEXT WEEK, COASTAL
SHOWERS POSSIBLE EACH DAY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
TODAY-SATURDAY...WE ARE MONITORING THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT EARLY THIS MORNING, PARTICULARLY ACROSS INTERIOR AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. NIGHT FOG SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND TRAFFIC CAMERAS ARE INDICATING THE BEGINNING OF SOME
PATCHY FOG IN MARTIN AND SOUTHERN ST. LUCIE COUNTIES. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR FOG ARE SITUATED NEAR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE KISSIMMEE RIVER. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW
DOWN, USE LOW-BEAM HEADLIGHTS, AND CREATE PLENTY OF FOLLOWING
DISTANCE WHEN ENCOUNTERING LOWER VISIBILITY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY TODAY, REACHING THE 80S (7-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL) EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHWEST WINDS OF
10 TO 15 MPH SHOULD HELP SPREAD PW OF 1.6-1.8"+ ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA DURING PEAK HEATING. TEMPERATURES ALOFT BETWEEN -10C
(SOUTH) AND -12C (NORTH) WILL BE PRESENT, ALONG WITH MODERATELY
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. HI-RES GUIDANCE HINTS AT A FEW
UNORGANIZED SHOWERS BY MIDDAY, BUT THOSE ARE LIKELY TO STRUGGLE IN
OVERCOMING A STOUT 700-500MB DRY LAYER. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP AFTER CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE REACHED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONALLY,
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO 60-70
PERCENT, ESPECIALLY FROM VERO BEACH NORTHWARD. A STRONG STORM OR
TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO THE COLD TEMPS ALOFT AND EFFICIENT
SFC-800MB PARCEL COOLING, PARTICULARLY WHERE THESE CONDITIONS
OVERLAP WITH 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE (ORLANDO SOUTHWARD). THAT SAID,
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MORE LIMITING. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL
WOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS, THOUGH ANY STORM-SCALE COLLISION
WITH THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE MONITORED FOR BRIEF ROTATION.
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-70 PERCENT) OVERNIGHT AS A
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. SHOWERS
MAY BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN NATURE SATURDAY MORNING,
BEFORE ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT OCCURS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT SOUTH IN TIME,
FOCUSING FROM MELBOURNE TO POINTS SOUTH. AGAIN, A COUPLE OF
LIGHTNING STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL SATURDAY, WARMING THE MOST ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST AND NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE.
IN TOTAL, FROM TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING, MOST LIKELY RAIN
TOTALS RANGE FROM 0.5" IN MARTIN COUNTY TO 0.75-1.5" OVER MUCH OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THERE IS A 60-80 PERCENT CHANCE OF 1" OR
GREATER FROM THE ORLANDO METRO TO BREVARD, OSCEOLA, AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF INDIAN RIVER COUNTY. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2"+ ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST AND ALSO WHERE REPEATED ROUNDS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OCCUR.
SUNDAY-THURSDAY...BROAD 500MB TROUGHING LINGERS OVER THE AREA
SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING SEAWARD EARLY IN THE WEEK, ALLOWING RIDGING
TO BUILD TUESDAY-THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM
THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY, LED BY A
WEAKENING FRONT THAT STALLS OVER NORTH FL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A
BREEZY NORTHEAST WIND SUNDAY VEERS EASTERLY FROM MONDAY ONWARD.
GUSTS AT TIMES COULD REACH 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS (UP TO 25
MPH AT THE COAST). THE EAST COAST BREEZE WILL LIKELY FORM EACH
DAY, MOVING INLAND FAIRLY QUICK. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WARM TO
ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE WARMEST
LOCATIONS ACROSS INTERIOR ECFL. ON SUNDAY, MODEL SOUNDINGS LOOK
DRIER OVERALL, BUT A FEW ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR COASTAL SHOWERS RETURN DURING THE
WORK WEEK (STILL ONLY AROUND 15-30 PERCENT).
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS
PERSIST TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. A FRONT IS FORECAST TO
APPROACH AND PUSH ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS DURING THE DAY ON
SATURDAY. ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, INTRODUCING POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS (SEAS UP TO
8 FEET) BY TUESDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BEFORE
SCATTERED RAIN AND A FEW STORMS DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. AS THE FRONT MOVES
SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND INCREASINGLY OFFSHORE. A
STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 30 KNOTS,
LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS GENERALLY 1-3 FEET, EXCEPT WHERE LOCALLY HIGHER
NEAR LIGHTNING STORMS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 629 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS ARE FILTERING EAST
AND NORTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA THIS MORNING. HAVE INCLUDED
TEMPOS FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS AND MVFR VIS FOR LEE-ISM-TIX-MLB-VRB-
FPR-SUA THROUGH 13/14Z. ANY LINGERING FOG/STRATUS WILL LIFT OR
DISSIPATE AROUND 13/14Z. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KT BY MID
MORNING. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO FORM THIS
AFTERNOON, VEERING WINDS ONSHORE (SE) IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
COAST. RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORMS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
INCLUDED VCTS STARTING AT 18/20Z AND CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. STORMS WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
AS WELL AS DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AT THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS STARTING AT 22Z FOR TSRA WITH
WIND GUSTS OF 25KT AND MVFR CIGS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. GUIDANCE IS INDICATING MVFR/IFR
CIGS DEVELOPING AND MOVING IN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE INCLUDED
MVFR/IFR CIG REDUCTIONS STARTING AT 05/08Z FOR ALL TERMINALS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 230 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2026
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON,
TURNING ONSHORE AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE EAST COAST BREEZE
FORMS. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, PARTICULARLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE,
BRINGING THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL FIRE STARTS. A STRONG STORM
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HIGH
RAIN CHANCES (60-70 PERCENT) CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS A
FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE
FORECAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON (MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL).
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
MORNING. AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG MAY DEVELOP AROUND LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND NEAR THE KISSIMMEE RIVER. SMOKE FROM NEW OR
EXISTING FIRES MAY ALSO LEAD TO LOCALIZED VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 81 60 72 56 / 60 80 70 20
MCO 83 64 76 60 / 60 70 70 30
MLB 81 62 75 59 / 60 70 70 40
VRB 83 62 78 59 / 60 70 70 50
LEE 81 61 75 56 / 70 80 70 20
SFB 83 62 75 57 / 70 80 70 20
ORL 83 63 75 59 / 60 70 70 30
FPR 84 61 79 58 / 60 60 70 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ058-259-
264.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...WATSON
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