360
FXUS62 KMLB 280839
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
339 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
- A MARGINAL RISK (1 OUT OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS TODAY FROM
CENTRAL OSCEOLA AND SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE
AND THE TREASURE COAST; LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND
SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
ISOLATED ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM MONDAY
ONWARD
- BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS DETERIORATE NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE
WINDS STRENGTHEN EACH DAY AND SEAS BUILD
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING,
PARTICULARLY FROM KISSIMMEE AND MELBOURNE SOUTHWARD, SUPPORTED BY
A 500MB SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD. THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
HAS PRODUCED AN ESTIMATED 1-3" PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES, AND RECENT
MRMS QPE SHOWS A COUPLE SWATHS OF 0.50-1.50" OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. AT TIMES, OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING HAS
OCCURRED, BUT MOST OF THE STORMS APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED FOR NOW
(NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF SURFACE GUSTS).
CAMS ARE ONLY NOW CATCHING UP TO CURRENT RADAR OBSERVATIONS,
SHOWING A PERSISTENT BATCH OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH 8 AM. A
FEW EMBEDDED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL, THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD REMAIN VERY LOW. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. IT IS AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT, MAINLY FROM OSCEOLA AND SOUTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES
SOUTHWARD, THAT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED FROM LATE
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST
COUNTIES HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCE AT SEEING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY IN THE EVENING (NBM PROB THUNDER ~30%), AND ONE OR TWO
COULD BE ON THE STRONG SIDE. GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WOULD BE THE
MAIN THREATS, AND PER USUAL, ANY SEA BREEZE/STORM INTERACTIONS
WILL BE MONITORED FOR BRIEF ROTATION. MOST ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
PRIOR TO OR AROUND MIDNIGHT AS DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH BEHIND THE
FRONT.
TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE WIDELY FROM THE UPPER 60S
IN VOLUSIA COUNTY TO THE LOW 80S AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THIS
SEPARATION IN TEMPS IS DUE TO THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
NORTHERN LOCATIONS FIRST, VEERING WINDS OUT OF THE NORTH. LOWS
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WILL END UP SEVERAL DEGREES COLDER
COMPARED TO THIS MORNING, FALLING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S
(EXCEPT FOR THE LOW/MID 60S AROUND LAKE O AND THE TREASURE COAST).
SUNDAY-MONDAY...THE PASSING COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE KEYS ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO OUR AREA.
SURFACE FLOW TURNS NORTHEASTERLY SUNDAY, THEN EASTERLY ON MONDAY
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS STAY
RATHER DRY ON SUNDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA, SO EVEN A LINGERING
20-30% CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS MARTIN COUNTY MAY BE OVERSOLD. ANY
MOISTURE LEFTOVER WILL BE CONFINED TO THE LOWEST LEVELS, SO THE
THINKING IS THAT MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL RETURN TO DRIER
CONDITIONS SUNDAY. THE STORY CHANGES A BIT ON MONDAY AS ONSHORE
FLOW RETURNS, ALLOWING A BIT MORE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT
SHALLOW MARINE SHOWERS PUSHING TOWARD THE COAST. STILL, SOUNDINGS
ARE RATHER DRY, SO COVERAGE OF COASTAL SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LOW.
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE BEGINNING OF MARCH ARE
FORECAST SUNDAY (HIGHS IN THE 70S) WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS COMING BACK ON MONDAY.
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...AN EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH OFFSHORE FROM
THE NORTHEAST U.S. ON TUESDAY MOVING OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC BY MID WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME, MID/UPPER RIDGING BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S., REMAINING IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK. A SLOW-MOVING SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO APPROACH NORTH
FLORIDA TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING NORTH OF OUR AREA.
ONSHORE FLOW REMAINS PERSISTENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART
OF THE WEEK, AIDING IN INCREASED MOISTURE RETURN. MODELS SUGGEST
A BETTER CHANCE FOR COASTAL SHOWERS PUSHING INLAND WILL OCCUR MID
TO LATE WEEK. THAT SAID, THE QPF IS VERY LIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
(LESS THAN 0.10" MOST PLACES). BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST AS THE SEA
BREEZE FORMS, WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING INTO THE 80S FOR MOST BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE WARMER, MAINLY DRY PATTERN LOOKS TO
STICK AROUND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS WELL.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS WILL CONTINUE TODAY,
PARTICULARLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD, AS A COLD FRONT DRIFTS
SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS. A STRONGER STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT THIS AFTERNOON (GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING, AND HAIL), MAINLY
SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS VEER NORTHERLY,
REACHING 15 KNOTS OVER THE VOLUSIA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING
WINDS TO GRADUALLY VEER MORE ONSHORE. POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS RETURN MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS
(15-20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS) BUILD SEAS TO 6-9 FEET BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN 6-7 FEET ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE FROM MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK, PUSHING FARTHER INLAND
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD TOWARDS THE
COAST AND WILL IMPACT TIX/MLB THROUGH 07Z, WITH SHRA/TSRA PUSHING
THROUGH VRB-SUA THROUGH ABOUT 10Z. ADDITIONAL SHRA WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD
MVFR/IFR AND EVEN SOME LIFR CIGS ARE BEGINNING TO SPREAD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TERMINALS, AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS ECFL
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF SATURDAY.
SLIGHT MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW LONG THE LOWER CIGS WILL
LINGER, AS WELL AS HOW LOW THE CIGS WILL REACH. HAVE LEANED MORE
TOWARDS LAMP GUIDANCE, WITH THE CIGS GENERALLY LIFTING TO VFR
SATURDAY EVENING (AFTER 03Z). LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS
MORNING WILL BECOME SW/W AND INCREASE TO 5-10 KT BY MID-MORNING
SATURDAY, TURNING N/NE IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE
BECOMING LIGHT ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 330 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2026
A COLD FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA IS FORECAST TO VERY SLOWLY MOVE
SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AROUND 30 TO 50
PERCENT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS DEVELOP FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING
(PARTICULARLY MELBOURNE SOUTHWARD). STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50
MPH, AND SMALL HAIL. LIGHTNING COULD LEAD TO NEW FIRE STARTS.
LIGHT WINDS GRADUALLY VEER OUT OF THE NORTH BEHIND THE PASSING FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR MOVES IN SUNDAY WITH ONLY A
LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED STORM OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN
TREASURE COAST. ONSHORE SHOWERS WILL RESUME AS A BREEZY EAST WIND
RETURNS NEXT WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 68 55 72 55 / 40 10 10 0
MCO 74 58 77 58 / 60 30 10 0
MLB 74 60 75 59 / 60 40 10 10
VRB 78 61 76 60 / 60 50 20 10
LEE 72 55 77 54 / 40 20 10 0
SFB 72 56 76 56 / 50 10 10 0
ORL 74 58 77 57 / 50 20 10 0
FPR 79 60 77 58 / 60 50 20 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...WATSON
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