372
FXUS62 KMLB 011730
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1230 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY AT VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN
BREVARD COUNTY BEACHES; ENTERING THE SURF IS DISCOURAGED
- MOSTLY DRY TODAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS BRUSHING THE COAST,
MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL
- WARMING TREND WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK, IN
ADDITION TO ISOLATED ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH YESTERDAY IS NOW
SETTLING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES LOCALLY (AT 1 AM) ARE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S AS A BLANKET OF LOW CLOUDS SITS OVER THE
AREA. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP US STAY SLIGHTLY MILDER THAN WE
OTHERWISE WOULD BE UNDER A CLEAR SKY, BUT SUNRISE TEMPS ARE STILL
FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S (WARMEST SOUTH). DRIER
AIR SLOWLY WORKS SOUTH TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT, HELPING TO CLEAR OUT
SOME OF THE MORNING CLOUDS. MORE CLOUDS WILL LINGER CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST/OKEECHOBEE REGION THAN ANYWHERE
ELSE. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC AND MAKE A
CLOSE PASS TO THE TREASURE COAST; HOWEVER, RAIN AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN
VERY LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER 0.05-0.10"). DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE 70S AREAWIDE, GENERALLY REACHING NEAR NORMAL
VALUES FOR THE 1ST OF MARCH. OVERNIGHT LOWS SINK INTO THE 50S TO MID
60S ONCE AGAIN, SIMILAR TO THIS MORNING BUT WITH LESS CLOUD COVER.
AS ONSHORE FLOW TAKES HOLD, SURF CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AT OUR
NORTHERN BEACHES. THUS, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS IN PLACE
TODAY FOR VOLUSIA AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY BEACHES. ENTERING THE
WATER IS DISCOURAGED THERE. SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL, A MODERATE RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES.
MONDAY-SATURDAY...THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHEAST U.S. MONDAY TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. FLORIDA REMAINS ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOST OF THE WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND, ALLOWING FOR A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF ONSHORE WINDS.
WINDS MAY BE BREEZY TO GUSTY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
INTRACOASTAL AND BARRIER ISLANDS. THE 500MB RIDGE AXIS REACHES THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. ON WEDNESDAY AND GENERALLY STAYS IN PLACE OVER
FLORIDA AND THE NEARBY ATLANTIC INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DRIER AIR LOOKS
TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE PW VALUES INCREASE AREAWIDE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A CONTINUED DRYNESS
ABOVE 700-500MB THIS WEEK, SUGGESTING THAT BUILDUP OF MOISTURE WILL
BE CONFINED TO THE LOWEST 1-1.5 KM. LIGHT QPF HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN
THE MODELS THIS WEEK, INDICATING AT LEAST ISOLATED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC PUSHING TOWARD THE COAST. SOME OF
THESE SHOWERS COULD MAKE IT FARTHER INLAND, PARTICULARLY DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS. THUS, WE CONTINUE TO CARRY A 20-35 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS (UP TO 45 PERCENT AT THE COAST TUESDAY).
TEMPERATURES TREND HIGHER EACH DAY, STARTING WITH THE MID 70S TO LOW
80S FOR HIGHS MONDAY AND REACHING THE LOW 80S (COAST) TO UPPER 80S
(INLAND) BY WEEK'S END. THE COOLEST NIGHT LOOKS TO BE MONDAY NIGHT
(UPPER 50S/MID 60S) BEFORE MOST LOCATIONS SETTLE INTO THE 60S EACH
NIGHT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. LOOKING FARTHER AHEAD, CPC'S 8-14
DAY OUTLOOK SHOWS THAT THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE PATTERN IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE (70-80% CHANCE OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS). THAT BEING
SAID, THE PROSPECTS FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 7-14 DAYS
DO NOT LOOK GREAT. RECENT RAINS WERE A WELCOME SIGHT FOR MANY, BUT
THE CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE MONTH.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY WITH NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS AND SEAS 2-4 FEET (UP TO 5 FEET
OFFSHORE). WINDS TURN ONSHORE AND FRESHEN SLIGHTLY FROM MONDAY
ONWARD, NOTABLY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE AND GULF STREAM WATERS. POOR TO
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS RETURN FOR A TIME, BEGINNING MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. SEAS BUILD TO A
PEAK OF 6 TO 9 FEET BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED, STARTING MONDAY AND LASTING THROUGH AT
LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE (25-50% CHANCE) EACH DAY, AND LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS FOR AN
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORM (MAINLY SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET).
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
NE WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME LIGHT DURING THE EVENING. WILL MONITOR FOR STUBBORN MVFR
CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL HANDLE WITH PREVAILING AND/OR
TEMPO GROUPS AS APPLICABLE, BUT GENERALLY VFR THRU THE PERIOD.
NE/ENE WINDS ON MON WILL PICK BACK UP TO 8-13 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER
GUSTS, ESP ALONG THE COAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 155 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2026
DRIER AIR GRADUALLY WORKS OVERHEAD TODAY INTO MONDAY AS THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. SURFACE WINDS TURN
NORTHEASTERLY TODAY, THEN MORE EASTERLY FROM MONDAY ONWARD. GUSTS
EACH AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS, COULD REACH
20-25 MPH AT TIMES. ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS (20-40% CHANCE) ARE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY, ESPECIALLY FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. AN ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE TREASURE COAST THROUGH
MID WEEK. LARGELY DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
THE MAIN STORY FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 57 76 61 77 / 0 0 20 40
MCO 60 78 63 79 / 0 0 10 50
MLB 62 76 63 78 / 10 20 30 50
VRB 63 78 63 79 / 20 20 40 50
LEE 56 80 60 81 / 0 0 10 30
SFB 58 79 61 80 / 0 0 10 40
ORL 59 79 62 80 / 0 0 10 40
FPR 62 78 63 79 / 20 30 40 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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