993
FXUS62 KMLB 020747
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
247 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE PUSHED INTO LAKE AND INLAND
VOLUSIA COUNTIES THIS MORNING. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED THROUGH 6 AM.
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY AND
CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
AND BUILDING SEAS. THERE WILL BE A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO KISSIMMEE
SOUTHWARD TODAY. INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY ONWARD AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA, WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STORMS POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TREND WARMER THROUGH THIS WEEK,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY
LATE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT... PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED AND
MOVED INTO LAKE AND INLAND VOLUSIA COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN DENSE FOG. A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 6 AM. ANY LINGERING FOG
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF
WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NE
US WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. LOCALLY, NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AS THE SEA BREEZE ENHANCES THE
ONSHORE FLOW. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THE
AFTERNOON AND PUSH ONSHORE AND INLAND. WHILE DRIER AIR HAS
FILTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA, RESIDUAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA FROM A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT HAS PUSHED
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS FORECAST PW
VALUES RANGE FROM 08-1.0" FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL
SUPPORT A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-30%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS FROM CAPE
CANAVERAL TO KISSIMMEE SOUTHWARD AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH THE DAY. WITH EVERYWHERE ELSE REMAINING MOSTLY DRY.
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME (PROBABILITY LESS
THAN 15%). THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-40%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS
DEVELOPING AND PUSHING ONSHORE OVERNIGHT, WITH SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS PUSHING INLAND.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TODAY UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AFTERNOON
HIGHS RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST, AND UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFT GUARD.
TUESDAY-SUNDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF ON
TUESDAY WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST US WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD TO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC BY MID-WEEK, WITH THE AXIS REMAINING OVER THE
EASTERN US AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY,
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO FORM AND PUSH INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. WARM MOIST AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE ATLANTIC IN THE
ONSHORE FLOW ON TUESDAY, WITH FORECAST PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1.2-
1.5" THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS A MEDIUM (30-
50%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THERE
IS A LOW (20%) CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STORM DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON
THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEEK, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. MAIN
STORM HAZARDS WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH ONGOING DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS EACH
NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OCCURRING ACROSS THE INTERIOR EACH DAY AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HELPING KEEP THE COAST
SLIGHTLY COOLER. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S
ON TUESDAY AND WARMING TO LOW TO MID 80S BY LATE WEEK. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
EACH DAY DUE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND WAVES. ENTERING THE SURF
IS NOT ADVISED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 233 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
TODAY- FRIDAY... DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY AS ONSHORE
WINDS FRESHEN, INCREASING TO 15 TO 22 KNOTS THROUGH THE DAY AND
EVENING. SEAS 3-5 FT TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 4-7 FT TONIGHT ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION IN ALL THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY AS WINDS INCREASE
TO 15-20 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AS SEAS BUILD TO 7FT AND WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 20
KT. SEAS SLIGHTLY SUBSIDE TO 4-6FT ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND 4-5FT ON
FRIDAY. WINDS ON TUESDAY BECOME MORE EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND DECEASE
SLIGHTLY TO 15-20 KT, PERSISTING THROUGH LATE WEEK.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS EACH DAY AND NIGHT AS WARM, MOIST, ONSHORE
FLOW PERSISTS AND CREATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT.
SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY MAKE IT ONSHORE AND PUSH INLAND,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY ONWARD. ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY TUESDAY AND THURSDAY. ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO
DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
GUSTY WINDS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST MON MAR 2 2026
BR/FG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR AND NORTH OF LEE. TEMPO
INCLUDED THRU AT LEAST 09Z FOR IFR/LIFR CONDS. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY
SKC (FEW030-040 VRB TO SUA) AND LIGHT NNE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED.
COASTAL SITES VRB SOUTHWARD MAY BE A BIT BREEZY AT TIMES (GUSTS
15-20 KT).
AFTER 15Z, ONSHORE FLOW PICKS UP TO AROUND 10-14 KT WITH GUSTS TO
20 KT AT TIMES, ESP. AT THE COAST. FEW/SCT MARINE STRATOCU
(FL025-040) WILL MOVE ONSHORE THRU THE DAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 76 61 77 62 / 10 10 40 20
MCO 79 63 80 65 / 10 10 40 10
MLB 77 63 78 65 / 20 30 50 30
VRB 78 64 79 65 / 20 40 50 30
LEE 80 60 81 63 / 0 10 30 10
SFB 79 61 81 64 / 10 10 40 10
ORL 80 63 81 65 / 10 10 40 10
FPR 78 63 79 64 / 20 40 40 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR FLZ041-
044.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WATSON
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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