492
FXUS62 KMLB 031145
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
645 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
- BREEZY EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AND CHOPPY
SEAS. THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA
BEACHES TODAY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND PUSH ONSHORE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND PROGRESS INLAND
EACH AFTERNOON.
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TREND WARMER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
REACHING 85F-87F OVER THE INTERIOR MID TO LATE WEEK. RECORD
HIGHS ARE NOT FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS FLORIDA AND
THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ALONG THE NE US WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE THE CENTER SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. LOCALLY, NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
POSSIBLE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AS THE SEA BREEZE FORMS AND PUSHES
INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON AND ENHANCES THE ONSHORE FLOW. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH FORECAST PW VALUES OF
0.9-1.1". THIS WILL SUPPORT A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-30%) CHANCE OF
ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS TODAY, WITH SOME PUSHING INLAND. HIGHEST
COVERAGE WILL BE FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO FT. PIERCE AND AS FAR INLAND
AS HOLOPAW. LIGHTNING STORMS ARE NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME
(PROBABILITY LESS THAN 15%). WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY
TONIGHT, ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM CAPE
CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS .
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TODAY UNDER PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. AFTERNOON
HIGHS RANGE FROM MID TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST, AND UPPER 70S TO
LOW 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
60S UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DUE TO THE WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL AS INCREASING SEAS AND PERIODS,
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY.
ENTERING THE SURF IS NOT ADVISED.
WEDNESDAY-MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE GULF AND
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE SW ATLANTIC BY THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS BERMUDA BY THE WEEKEND, WITH THE AXIS REMAINING OVER THE
EASTERN US AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY,
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE (EAST TO SOUTHEAST) FLOW PERSISTING
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE IS FORECAST TO FORM AND PUSH INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. WARM
MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED, WITH FORECAST
PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1.1-1.4" THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS COUPLED
WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL SUPPORT A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%)
CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY THAT WILL PUSH ONSHORE AND INLAND. THERE
IS A LOW (20%) CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STORM DEVELOPMENT EACH
AFTERNOON, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. MAIN STORM HAZARDS WILL BE
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS
OR STORMS WILL DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS EACH NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH
THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OCCURRING ACROSS THE INTERIOR EACH DAY AS
ONSHORE FLOW AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HELP KEEP THE COAST
SLIGHTLY COOLER. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S
ON WEDNESDAY AND WARMING TO LOW TO MID 80S BY LATE WEEK. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WHICH IS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
EACH DAY DUE TO INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW AND PERIOD. ENTERING THE
SURF IS NOT ADVISED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 250 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
TODAY-SATURDAY... POOR MARINE AND BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS SLIGHTLY
TIGHTENED OVER THE AREAS. EASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL TURN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND 15-20
KNOTS OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE
CAUTION IN ALL THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY, AND WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-6FT OFFSHORE AND
4-5FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY AND WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING
STORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
VFR FORECAST WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT THE COAST. -SHRA PUSH
ONSHORE THRU THE DAY, ESPECIALLY FROM MLB TO SUA, BUT LOW CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE/TIMING LENDS TO VCSH FOR NOW. E/NE WINDS INCREASE THRU
THE DAY, GUSTING 15-20 KT AT TIMES.
WIND SPEEDS DECREASE AFTER 00Z WED. BR/FG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT
NORTHERN SITES (ESP. LEE/DAB) BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT
AS FAR SOUTH AS SFB/MCO/ISM.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 77 61 79 63 / 20 10 20 10
MCO 80 65 83 66 / 20 10 30 0
MLB 78 65 79 66 / 30 20 20 10
VRB 79 65 81 66 / 30 20 20 10
LEE 82 63 84 64 / 10 0 20 0
SFB 80 63 83 64 / 20 10 20 0
ORL 80 64 83 66 / 20 10 30 0
FPR 79 64 81 65 / 30 20 20 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WATSON
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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