756
FXUS62 KMLB 040527
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1227 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 619 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
- THERE IS A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE FOR LOCALLY DENSE FOG TONIGHT,
HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
- BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AND CHOPPY SEAS.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES AND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND PUSH INLAND MOST AFTERNOONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A LOW (20% OR LESS) CHANCE OF LIGHTNING STORMS
THURSDAY ONWARD.
- TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO TREND WARMER WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING 85F-87F OVER THE INTERIOR MID TO LATE
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...RIDGE ALOFT BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF AND FLORIDA SHIFTS EASTWARD, WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST SEABOARD TRAILING BEHIND. ONSHORE FLOW ENHANCED BY
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
THIS AFTERNOON, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. A SLUG OF HIGHER
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE (PWATS 1.0-1.2") EMBEDDED IN THE ONSHORE FLOW
IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS A GOOD CHUNK OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON, FROM PARTS OF THE ORLANDO
METRO SOUTH TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE. A FEW LUCKY AREAS WHERE HEAVIER
SHOWERS (DESPITE THE VERY DRY AIR ALOFT) OR TRAINING BANDS
DEVELOPED HAVE RECEIVED AROUND 0.25" OF RAIN, AND A COUPLE SPOTS
OVER 0.5", BUT FOR MOST 0.1" OR LESS IS WHAT CAN BE EXPECTED. HAVE
A 20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR PRETTY MUCH ALL OF ECFL EXCEPT
VOLUSIA AND ADJACENT LAKE/SEMINOLE COUNTIES THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON, THEN RAIN CHANCES SHIFT BACK OFFSHORE/ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. CAN'T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A ROGUE LIGHTNING
STRIKE IN THE AFTERNOON, BUT CHANCES ARE VERY LOW (10% OR LESS).
TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT ON THE WARM SIDE IN THE U70S-L80S, WARMER
INLAND, THEN COOLING INTO THE U50S-U60S, COOLEST TO THE NORTH
TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS ARE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD
AND DEW POINTS CREEP UP, BUT WHETHER OVERNIGHT WINDS BECOME LIGHT
ENOUGH FOR DEVELOPMENT IS UP IN THE AIR. GENERALLY GOOD SIGNAL
FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR, WHICH
COULD BECOME DENSE AND REDUCE VISIBILITY TO LESS THAN A MILE.
WEDNESDAY-MONDAY...RINSE AND REPEAT. RIDGING ALOFT SHIFTS FROM
OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA INTO THE NEARBY WEST ATLANTIC
WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY, THEN GRADUALLY WEAKENS
GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH
SWINGS ACROSS THE CONUS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY AS IT ALSO BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST SEABOARD INTO THE
NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE SARGASSO SEA THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
CONTINUING ONSHORE (EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY) FLOW AS THE RIDGE
AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA. ENHANCEMENT FROM THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE COULD AGAIN PRODUCE SOME BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS IN
THE AFTERNOONS. MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND
UPWARD. RAIN CHANCES MORE LIMITED LIMITED WEDNESDAY, 20% OR LESS,
BUT THEN PICK UP TO 20-50% THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES WELL INLAND AS PWATS GRADUALLY INCREASE TO
1.1-1.4", BEFORE SETTLING BACK TO 20% SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COULD SEE
SOME LIGHTNING STORMS (20% OR LESS CHANCE) IN THE AFTERNOONS
THURSDAY ONWARD. ENSEMBLE MEAN RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT RANGE FROM 0.2-0.5", HIGHER TO THE NORTH, BUT LUCKY SPOTS
THAT GET DEEPER CONVECTION/REPEATED ROUNDS COULD RECEIVE LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR MORE.
WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH HIGHS GRADUALLY
WORKING THEIR WAY FROM THE U70S-L80S WEDNESDAY TO THE L-U80S
(WELL ABOVE NORMAL) EARLY NEXT WEEK, WARMEST INLAND AS ONSHORE
FLOW MODERATES THE COAST SOME. A FEW LOW HANGING INLAND DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURE RECORDS COULD BE THREATENED, BUT FOR THE MOST PART
THE FORECAST FALLS SHORT OF RECORDS BY 3-5 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE 60S ALSO WELL ABOVE NORMAL, AND FLIRTING WITH A FEW LOW
HANGING DAILY RECORD WARM LOWS.
WHILE TEMPERATURES MAY BE INVITING FOR THE BEACHES, THE PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CAUSE SWELL TO BUILD, AND A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ENTERING THE SURF IS NOT ADVISED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 200 PM EST TUE MAR 3 2026
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SARGASSO SEA BECOMES NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK, KEEPING THE RIDGE AXIS
NORTH OF FLORIDA AND THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS, AND CONTINUING
MODERATE TO FRESH ONSHORE FLOW. BOATING CONDITIONS IN THE GULF
STREAM REMAIN GENERALLY POOR FROM SEAS 4-6 FT AND WINDS 10-20 KTS.
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION. CLOSER TO SHORE, BOATING
CONDITIONS MORE FAVORABLE ALBEIT ON THE CHOPPY SIDE TODAY WITH
WINDS 5-15 KTS AND SEAS 3-5 FT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE EMBEDDED IN THE ONSHORE FLOW.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW STRATUS SNEAKING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
VOLUSIA/NORTH LAKE COUNTIES, WITH LOWER VISIBILITIES AS WELL.
WILL WATCH THE I-4 TAF SITES CLOSELY FOR LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS THRU
EARLY THIS MORNING. ELSE, SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY SNEAK
ONTO THE COAST OCCASIONALLY IN THE DEEP ONSHORE FLOW. HAVE VCSH TO
COVER FOR THIS AND WILL ADD TEMPO GROUPS HERE AS NECESSARY.
POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN SHOWERS. ENE/E WINDS 8-13 KTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS THRU TODAY, ESP ACROSS COASTAL TAF SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 79 62 80 64 / 10 10 20 10
MCO 83 65 85 67 / 10 0 40 10
MLB 79 66 80 67 / 20 10 30 20
VRB 80 66 81 68 / 20 10 30 20
LEE 84 64 86 66 / 10 0 40 10
SFB 83 64 85 66 / 10 0 30 10
ORL 83 65 85 67 / 10 0 40 10
FPR 80 66 81 66 / 20 10 30 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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