439
FXUS62 KMLB 041119
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
619 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 619 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
- PATCHY TO AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS CONTINUES TO SPREAD
SOUTH AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. VISIBILITIES DOWN 1/4 MILE IN DENSE FOG. PATCHY FOG
AND SEA FOG ARE FORECAST LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING
ALONG THE NORTHERN VOLUSIA COAST AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS.
- BREEZY ONSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE ROUGH SURF AND CHOPPY SEAS.
THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES AND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND PUSH INLAND MOST AFTERNOONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A LOW (20% OR LESS) CHANCE OF LIGHTNING STORMS
THURSDAY ONWARD.
- WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH 85F-87F OVER THE INTERIOR MID TO LATE
WEEK, WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT... PATCHY DENSE FOG AND LOW STRATUS HAVE FORMED AND IS
SLIDING SOUTHWARD FROM FLAGLER/PUTNAM COUNTIES AND SPREADING ACROSS
VOLUSIA, LAKE, SEMINOLE, AND NORTHWEST ORANGE COUNTIES THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE AT TIMES IN DENSE FOG. FOG IS FORECAST
TO LIFT OR DISSIPATE BY 9 AM.
MUCH LIKE THE LAST COUPLE DAYS, HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE GULF WATERS THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED IN THE ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE
DEEP SOUTH AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WHILE THE CENTER SLOWLY SHIFTS
SOUTHWARD. LOCALLY, NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE DAY, WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH POSSIBLE
AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY AS THE SEA BREEZE FORMS AND PUSHES INLAND IN
THE AFTERNOON AND ENHANCES THE ONSHORE FLOW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY, WITH FORECAST PW VALUES OF 1.1-
1.3". THIS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ONSHORE WITH THE
EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE DAY, WITH SOME OF THEM PUSHING
INLAND. WHILE MOST OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA,
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST IN THE FAR WESTERN INTERIOR
OF THE CWA AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHTNING
STORMS ARE NOT FORECAST AT THIS TIME (PROBABILITY LESS THAN 15%).
MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY TONIGHT, ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST OF MARTIN
COUNTY.
WARM AND PARTLY SUNNY AGAIN TODAY WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 3-
8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. AFTERNOON HIGHS RANGE
FROM UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST, AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S UNDER
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE FOG/SEA FOG
FORMING ONCE AGAIN ALONG FLAGLER COUNTY AND SPREADING SOUTHWARD ONTO
THE NORTHERN VOLUSIA COAST AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THUS, HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG
TO THE FORECAST FOR THAT AREA INTO THURSDAY MORNING. FOG MAY BE
DENSE AT TIMES, WITH VISIBILITIES LESS THAN 1 MILE IN DENSE FOG.
DUE TO THE WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AS WELL
AS INCREASING SEAS AND PERIODS, THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ONCE AGAIN AT ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY. ENTERING THE SURF IS NOT
ADVISED.
THURSDAY-TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA AND SW ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
EASTWARD INTO THE SW ATLANTIC BY THE WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD
TOWARDS BERMUDA BY THE WEEKEND, WITH THE AXIS REMAINING OVER THE
EASTERN US AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOCALLY,
THIS WILL RESULT IN ONSHORE (EAST TO SOUTHEAST) FLOW PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MUCH LIKE THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS, THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO FORM AND PUSH
INLAND EACH AFTERNOON. WARM MOIST AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
THE EXTENDED, WITH FORECAST PW VALUES RANGING FROM 1.1-1.4" THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THIS COUPLED WITH PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL SUPPORT A
LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50%) CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY THAT WILL PUSH
ONSHORE AND INLAND. DUE TO THE PERSIST EASTERLY FLOW, THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES. HOWEVER, THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS IN ECFL WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN INTERIOR, EACH
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A LOW (20%) CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STORM
DEVELOPMENT EACH AFTERNOON, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. MAIN
STORM HAZARDS WILL BE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS.
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS EACH
NIGHT.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO BE 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE
FORECAST THIS WEEKEND WITH LEESBURG HAVING THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY
TO REACH A RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MID 80S EACH DAY. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL OCCUR
ACROSS THE INTERIOR EACH DAY AS ONSHORE FLOW AND THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE HELP KEEP THE COAST SLIGHTLY COOLER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
IN THE LOW 60S THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. DUE TO THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW CAUSING THE SWELL TO
BUILD AND BECOME ROUGH, THERE WILL BE A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS, LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
ENTERING THE SURF IS NOT ADVISED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 229 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
TODAY- SUNDAY... POOR MARINE AND BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS SLIGHTLY TIGHTENED
OVER THE AREAS. EASTERLY WINDS TODAY WILL TURN EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY WITH SPEEDS OF 10-15 KNOTS NEARSHORE AND 15-20 KNOTS
OFFSHORE THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS DECREASE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY, WITH
SPEEDS OF 10-15 KT ACROSS ALL THE WATERS. SEAS OF 5-6 FEET IN THE
OFFSHORE AND 4-5FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS TODAY THROUGH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING SLIGHTLY TO 4-5FT ACROSS
ALL THE WATERS ON SUNDAY. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION IN ALL
THE OFFSHORE WATERS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WATERS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 604 AM EST WED MAR 4 2026
SATELLITE AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW LOW STRATUS CLOUDS AND PATCHY TO
AREAS OF DENSE FOG NEAR DAB TOWARD SFB, ORL, AND OVER TO LEE EARLY
THIS MORNING. PREVAILING AND TEMPO GROUPS HANDLING THIS PRESENTLY.
SHOULD BURN OFF THRU MID MORNING. ELSE SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAY SNEAK ONTO THE COAST OCCASIONALLY IN THE DEEP ONSHORE FLOW
DURING THE MORNING/AFTERNOON. HAVE VCSH TO COVER FOR THIS AND
WILL ADD TEMPO GROUPS HERE AS NECESSARY. POSSIBLE BRIEF MVFR IN
SHOWERS. ENE/E WINDS 10-15 KTS WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS THRU TODAY,
ESP ACROSS COASTAL TAF SITES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 79 62 80 64 / 10 10 20 10
MCO 83 65 85 67 / 10 0 40 10
MLB 79 66 80 67 / 20 10 30 20
VRB 80 66 81 68 / 20 10 30 20
LEE 84 64 86 66 / 10 0 40 10
SFB 83 64 85 66 / 10 0 30 10
ORL 83 65 85 67 / 10 0 40 10
FPR 80 66 81 66 / 20 10 30 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ041-
044>046-141-144.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WATSON
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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