840
FXUS62 KMLB 041816
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
116 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
- PATCHY FOG AND SEA FOG ARE FORECAST ALONG THE NORTHERN VOLUSIA
COAST AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS THIS EVENING, WITH FOG
POTENTIALLY SPREADING INLAND ACROSS AND NORTHWEST OF I-4
OVERNIGHT.
- POOR BOATING CONDITIONS OFFSHORE AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND PUSH INLAND MOST AFTERNOONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A LOW (20% OR LESS) CHANCE OF LIGHTNING STORMS
THURSDAY ONWARD.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, WITH MAX TEMPS REACHING AS HIGH AS THE MID TO
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THESE WILL BE NEAR RECORD VALUES
FOR INLAND SITES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF FLORIDA, MAINTAINING A MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST
BREEZE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED
WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THAT WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH ONSHORE,
MAINLY ALONG THE TREASURE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A
DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL THEN FORM AND PUSH INLAND FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY (UP TO 500-1000 J/KG) MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW
AFTERNOON LIGHTNING STORMS TO FORM ACROSS INLAND AREAS. A SIMILAR
PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL RANGE FROM
20 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST EACH DAY, AND INCREASE FROM 30 PERCENT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOMORROW AND 30-40 PERCENT ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST THIS EVENING
AND SPREAD INLAND ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, HREF
PROBABILITIES FOR DENSE FOG ARE A LITTLE LOWER FOR TONIGHT THEN
THEY WERE FOR LAST NIGHT. STILL, LOCALIZED VISIBILITIES OF A HALF
MILE OR LESS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE INTO THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC
MAINTAINING AN ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
CONTINUE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY (UP TO 40-50
PERCENT) AS MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE (PW VALUES RISING
TO 1.4-1.6") DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS
LATEST FORECAST LOWER TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR
RECORD VALUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR EACH AFTERNOON (MAINLY FOR
LEESBURG AND SANFORD), AS HIGHS RISE TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ALONG
THE COAST, THE ONSHORE BREEZE WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
A PERSISTENT MODERATE TO AT TIMES FRESH EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC REMAINS NEAR TO NORTH
OF THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY BE 10-15 KNOTS, BUT OVER THE
NEXT FEW NIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE. POOR BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS
SEAS UP TO 6 FEET CONTINUE. OTHERWISE, SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 FEET
CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH LATE WEEK AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
MAINLY VFR AT ALL ECFL TERMINALS TODAY, THEN POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF FOG/STRATUS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 FROM 07Z-15Z. ONSHORE
(ENE- ESE) FLOW UNDER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH OF THE AREA IS
ONCE AGAIN ENHANCED BY THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON,
INCREASING WINDS GENERALLY TO 8-13 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20
KTS, UP TO 15 KTS WITH MORE FREQUENT GUSTS AT KMLB-KSUA. SOME BRIEF
SHRA POSSIBLE FROM KMLB-KSUA INLAND, BUT CHANCES NOT EVEN HIGH
ENOUGH FOR VCSH AT THIS POINT. CIGS AT THESE TERMINALS PERIODICALLY
MVFR. HELD OFF TEMPOS WITH THIS PACKAGE BUT CAN'T RULE OUT AN AMD
AT SOME POINT. WINDS EASE AFTER 00Z.
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING, FOG/STRATUS IS AGAIN EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP IN NOFL, BUT HOW FAR IT SPILLS INTO ECFL IS UNCERTAIN. AT
THE INLAND/NORTHERN TERMINALS, NBM/LAV GENERALLY TREND TOWARDS VFR-
MVFR, WHILE HREF IS A LITTLE MORE PESSIMISTIC AND CALLING FOR
IFR/LIFR. TEMPTED TO GO WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST GIVEN A VERY
SIMILAR SETUP TO THIS MORNING, BUT CHANCES FOR IMPACTS ARE LOW
ENOUGH TO GIVE PAUSE, SO SHIPPED THE 18Z PACKAGE WITH PREVAILING
MVFR, AND WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS. ANY FOG/STRATUS MANAGES TO
DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE BY AROUND 15Z. SPACE/TREASURE COAST
TERMINALS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THANKS TO STEADY ONSHORE FLOW
OVERNIGHT. SEA BREEZE ENHANCES ONSHORE FLOW AGAIN THURSDAY, AND
INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT HIGHER SHRA/TSRA CHANCES IN THE
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 62 80 64 81 / 10 20 10 20
MCO 65 84 67 85 / 10 30 10 30
MLB 66 79 67 81 / 10 20 20 20
VRB 66 80 67 81 / 10 20 20 20
LEE 64 85 65 86 / 10 30 10 40
SFB 64 84 65 85 / 10 30 10 30
ORL 65 84 67 85 / 10 30 10 30
FPR 66 81 65 81 / 20 20 20 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...HALEY
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