807
FXUS62 KMLB 050513
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1213 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 640 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
- THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT,
ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF I-4 AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC
COAST.
- POOR BOATING CONDITIONS OFFSHORE AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND PUSH INLAND MOST AFTERNOONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A LOW (20% OR LESS) CHANCE OF LIGHTNING STORMS
THURSDAY ONWARD.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. THESE WILL BE NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR INLAND SITES THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF FLORIDA, MAINTAINING A MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST
BREEZE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK. THIS ONSHORE FLOW COMBINED
WITH SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THAT WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH ONSHORE,
MAINLY ALONG THE TREASURE COAST LATE TONIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING. A
DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL THEN FORM AND PUSH INLAND FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH
GREATEST COVERAGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY (UP TO 500-1000 J/KG) MAY ALSO ALLOW A FEW
AFTERNOON LIGHTNING STORMS TO FORM ACROSS INLAND AREAS. A SIMILAR
PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED INTO FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL RANGE FROM
20 PERCENT ALONG THE COAST EACH DAY, AND INCREASE FROM 30 PERCENT
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TOMORROW AND 30-40 PERCENT ON FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.
PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST THIS EVENING
AND SPREAD INLAND ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER, HREF
PROBABILITIES FOR DENSE FOG ARE A LITTLE LOWER FOR TONIGHT THEN
THEY WERE FOR LAST NIGHT. STILL, LOCALIZED VISIBILITIES OF A HALF
MILE OR LESS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...OVERALL PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE INTO THIS WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC
MAINTAINING AN ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL
CONTINUE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
GREATEST CHANCE FOR RAIN ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY (UP TO 40-50
PERCENT) AS MODELS SHOW AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE (PW VALUES RISING
TO 1.4-1.6") DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE, RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS
LATEST FORECAST LOWER TO 20 PERCENT OR LESS SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. A FEW STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL, WITH HIGHS REACHING NEAR
RECORD VALUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR EACH AFTERNOON (MAINLY FOR
LEESBURG AND SANFORD), AS HIGHS RISE TO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. ALONG
THE COAST, THE ONSHORE BREEZE WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S. MILD
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL CONTINUE IN THE 60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 101 PM EST WED MAR 4 2026
A PERSISTENT MODERATE TO AT TIMES FRESH EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC REMAINS NEAR TO NORTH
OF THE AREA. WIND SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY BE 10-15 KNOTS, BUT OVER THE
NEXT FEW NIGHTS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS OFFSHORE. POOR BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL LINGER OFFSHORE THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS
SEAS UP TO 6 FEET CONTINUE. OTHERWISE, SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3-5 FEET
CLOSER TO THE COAST THROUGH LATE WEEK AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
WITH A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
BIGGEST CHALLENGE REMAINS FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. 925 WINDS A BIT STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND WE
DON'T HAVE THE STRATUS DECK TO THE NORTH STARING US DOWN AGAIN.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADDRESS PREVAILING/TEMPOS AS
APPROPRIATE. GREATEST THREAT CONTINUES TO BE INLAND FROM THE COAST
AND ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT ESE/SE WINDS
7-13 KTS DURING THE DAY WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS, ESP ALONG THE
COAST. LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLD-WDLY SCT AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION -
HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR LATER IN THE DAY. BRIEF MVFR IN
CONVECTION. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY VFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 80 63 82 64 / 20 0 20 10
MCO 84 67 85 67 / 30 10 30 10
MLB 80 66 81 66 / 20 10 20 10
VRB 81 66 82 66 / 20 10 20 20
LEE 86 65 87 66 / 40 10 40 10
SFB 85 65 86 66 / 30 10 30 10
ORL 84 67 86 67 / 30 10 30 10
FPR 81 65 82 66 / 20 10 20 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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