270
FXUS62 KMLB 050739
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
239 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
- POOR BOATING CONDITIONS OFFSHORE AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND PUSH INLAND MOST AFTERNOONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A LOW (20% OR LESS) CHANCE OF LIGHTNING STORMS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. THESE WILL BE NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR INLAND SITES THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
TODAY-SATURDAY... A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA, KEEPING EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE LOCALLY. A DIFFUSE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL STEADILY MOVE INLAND EACH DAY PROMPTING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (20-40%), PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES EXIST SATURDAY (40-
50%) WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. SURFACE HEATING AND SEA
BREEZE/LAKE BREEZE INTERACTIONS ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR A FEW LIGHTING STRIKES EACH AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST A LIMITED ENVIRONMENT FOR
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND DRIER MID LEVELS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL
REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MID TO UPPER
80S INLAND. LOW TEMPERATURES HOLD MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S AREAWIDE.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IN FOG FORMATION CURRENTLY REMAINS LOW
WITH HREF PROBABILITIES ~10-30% FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-4.
NBM PROBABILITIES MAY SUGGEST SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR FOG
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, AND WILL MONITOR AS HIGH-RES MODELS
EXTEND FURTHER IN TIME.
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS, ALONG WITH ROUGH SURF, EXISTS AT ALL
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS, BEACH
PATROL FLAGS, AND SIGNS. ENTERING THE CHILLY SURF IS NOT ADVISED!
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY FURTHER
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. WINDS SHIFT MORE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT REMAIN EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST, FURTHER SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. MOSTLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY, PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE AND SURFACE HEATING. A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS
ADVECTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ENOUGH
AGREEMENT IN GLOBAL ENSEMBLES TO KEEP POPS BELOW 15% FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
80S ALONG THE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 80S WEST OF I-95 EACH
AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY FORECAST IN THE MID 60S,
ALTHOUGH BECOMING A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS RURAL LOCATIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS, KEEPING
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE. WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS OFFSHORE EACH NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK. BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS SEAS
UP TO 6 FT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE, SEAS SUBSIDE 3-5 FT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS SPREADS OVER THE WATERS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
BIGGEST CHALLENGE REMAINS FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE
PERIOD. 925 WINDS A BIT STRONGER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AND WE
DON'T HAVE THE STRATUS DECK TO THE NORTH STARING US DOWN AGAIN.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND ADDRESS PREVAILING/TEMPOS AS
APPROPRIATE. GREATEST THREAT CONTINUES TO BE INLAND FROM THE COAST
AND ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY FLOW AT
THE SURFACE CONTINUES EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT ESE/SE WINDS
7-13 KTS DURING THE DAY WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS, ESP ALONG THE
COAST. LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLD-WDLY SCT AFTN/EVENING CONVECTION -
HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR LATER IN THE DAY. BRIEF MVFR IN
CONVECTION. OTHERWISE, GENERALLY VFR.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 80 63 82 64 / 20 0 20 10
MCO 84 67 85 67 / 30 10 30 10
MLB 80 66 81 66 / 20 10 20 10
VRB 81 66 82 66 / 20 10 20 20
LEE 86 65 87 66 / 40 10 40 10
SFB 85 65 86 66 / 30 10 30 10
ORL 84 67 86 67 / 30 10 30 10
FPR 81 65 82 66 / 20 10 20 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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