385
FXUS62 KMLB 051756
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1256 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
- POOR BOATING CONDITIONS OFFSHORE AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
ATLANTIC AND PUSH INLAND MOST AFTERNOONS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THERE IS A LOW (20% OR LESS) CHANCE OF LIGHTNING STORMS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. THESE WILL BE NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR INLAND SITES THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 919 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
ONLY MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. FOCUSED RAIN CHANCES AROUND 20-30%,
MOSTLY WEST OF I-95 AS A MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW SHOULD SHIFT THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE INLAND QUICK ENOUGH FOR ANY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT TO REMAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
OVERALL MOISTURE IS STILL SOMEWHAT LIMITED, WITH PW VALUES ONLY
INCREASING TO AROUND 1.2-1.3 INCHES. COLDER TEMPS ALOFT AND
SURFACE BASED CAPE INCREASING TO OR JUST ABOVE 1000 J/KG MAY STILL
LEAD TO A FEW LIGHTING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONGER
STORM OR TWO DOES LOOK TO REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS THE WESTERN SIDE
OF THE FL PENINSULA LATER TODAY, WHERE SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS ARE
MORE LIKELY.
WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY, WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST AND LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS
THE INTERIOR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
TODAY-SATURDAY... A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF CENTRAL
FLORIDA, KEEPING EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE LOCALLY. A DIFFUSE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL STEADILY MOVE INLAND EACH DAY PROMPTING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (20-40%), PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. SLIGHTLY HIGHER AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES EXIST SATURDAY (40-
50%) WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE. SURFACE HEATING AND SEA
BREEZE/LAKE BREEZE INTERACTIONS ALONG WITH COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE FOR A FEW LIGHTING STRIKES EACH AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGEST A LIMITED ENVIRONMENT FOR
MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION DUE TO WEAK SHEAR AND DRIER MID LEVELS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 80S ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES WILL
REACH THE MID 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY. SLIGHTLY WARMER
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MID TO UPPER
80S INLAND. LOW TEMPERATURES HOLD MOSTLY IN THE MID 60S AREAWIDE.
CONTINUING TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING, BUT LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY BE JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT. CONFIDENCE IN FOG FORMATION CURRENTLY REMAINS LOW
WITH HREF PROBABILITIES ~10-30% FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-4.
NBM PROBABILITIES MAY SUGGEST SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR FOG
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNINGS, AND WILL MONITOR AS HIGH-RES MODELS
EXTEND FURTHER IN TIME.
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS, ALONG WITH ROUGH SURF, EXISTS AT ALL
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES. HEED THE ADVICE OF LIFEGUARDS, BEACH
PATROL FLAGS, AND SIGNS. ENTERING THE CHILLY SURF IS NOT ADVISED!
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY FURTHER
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES AND OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. WINDS SHIFT MORE OUT
OF THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT REMAIN EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST, FURTHER SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS. MOSTLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY, PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE AND SURFACE HEATING. A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS
ADVECTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH ENOUGH
AGREEMENT IN GLOBAL ENSEMBLES TO KEEP POPS BELOW 15% FOR MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW
80S ALONG THE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 80S WEST OF I-95 EACH
AFTERNOON. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY FORECAST IN THE MID 60S,
ALTHOUGH BECOMING A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS RURAL LOCATIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 239 AM EST THU MAR 5 2026
A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS, KEEPING
EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW IN PLACE. WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS OFFSHORE EACH NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK. BOATING
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY AS SEAS
UP TO 6 FT GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. OTHERWISE, SEAS SUBSIDE 3-5 FT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS SPREADS OVER THE WATERS NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON STRATU-CU PRODUCING HIGH-MVFR CIGS
HAS LIFTED AT INLAND TERMINALS BUT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IMPACTS
AT COASTAL TERMINALS, WHICH COULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
ISO-SCT SHRA HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF MCO/ISM, AND IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE NORTH AND WEST BETWEEN DAYTIME
HEATING AND INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SOME
BRIEF CONVECTIVE MVFR IMPACTS POSSIBLE, AND A TS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT AT I-4 TERMINALS INCLUDING KMCO AFTER 19Z. MOST ACTIVITY
SHOULD PUSH WEST OF THESE TERMINALS AFTER 22Z. HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR TSRA/+SHRA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION WEST OF KLEE AFTER
23Z, AND IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT KLEE THROUGH AROUND 03Z. ESE WINDS
10-15 KTS AND OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS, UP TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT KVRB- KSUA.
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR-IFR STRATUS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS ARE VERY
INCONSISTENT. 16Z LAV/NBM HAD A NOTABLE INCREASE TO 30-50%
CHANCES, WHICH THEN DROPPED TO 30% OR LESS WITH THE 17Z RUN. 18Z
TAFS GENERALLY REFLECT HREF GUIDANCE, CALLING FOR PREVAILING MVFR
AND POSSIBLE IFR IMPACTS FROM AROUND 07Z-14Z. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT OTHER ECFL TERMINALS, BUT COULD SEE HIGH-MVFR
STRATO-CU AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING. INLAND MOVING SHRA
AND POSSIBLY TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HIGHEST CHANCES ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 64 82 63 83 / 10 10 10 30
MCO 67 85 68 85 / 10 20 10 40
MLB 66 82 67 82 / 10 10 20 30
VRB 66 82 66 82 / 20 10 20 30
LEE 65 86 65 87 / 30 30 10 30
SFB 65 86 65 85 / 10 20 10 30
ORL 67 86 67 86 / 10 20 10 40
FPR 65 82 65 82 / 20 20 20 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
UPDATE...WEITLICH
AVIATION...HALEY
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