965
FXUS62 KMLB 051823
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
123 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 123 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
- POOR BOATING CONDITIONS OFFSHORE AND A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES WILL PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EACH DAY
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY ALONG THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE. THERE IS A LOW (20% OR LESS) CHANCE OF LIGHTNING
STORMS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. THESE WILL BE NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR INLAND SITES THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 123 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH INLAND, WEST OF I-95 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT FORECAST ALONG AND INLAND OF THIS
BOUNDARY. HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SOMEWHAT SUMMER-LIKE
PATTERN WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE SEA
BREEZE COLLISION, WHICH IS FAVORED TO OCCUR ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
FLORIDA LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO EARLY EVENING. THEREFORE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED JUST WEST OF THE AREA,
BUT WILL MAINTAIN 20-40 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS
OF EAST CENTRAL FL FOR THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ONCE CONVECTION
DIMINISHES, IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY INTO TONIGHT, WITH ISOLATED
ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS POSSIBLE, MAINLY ALONG THE TREASURE COAST.
MILD TEMPERATURES FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.
ELEVATED SOUTHEAST WIND SPEEDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS SHOULD AGAIN
LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL, BUT PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
NEAR TO NORTHWEST OF I-4 LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING FRIDAY.
FRIDAY-SATURDAY...RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO
EARLY WEEKEND. THIS WILL CONTINUE A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY MOVE ONSHORE, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
NIGHTTIME AND MORNING HOURS, SOUTH OF THE CAPE. THEN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INLAND
MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. HI-RES GUIDANCE DOESN'T
SEEM TO BE AS ENTHUSIASTIC AT THIS POINT WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
TOMORROW AS IT DOES FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER, FOR NOW
WILL KEEP LOW END 20-30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES FOR MOSTLY INLAND AREAS
ON FRIDAY, WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN POPS TO 30-40 PERCENT ON
SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL REACH THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST TO MID 80S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THIS WILL LEAD TO NEAR RECORD MAX TEMPS FOR
LEESBURG AND SANFORD ON SATURDAY. RECORD HIGHS FOR MARCH 7TH AT BOTH
SITES ARE 88 DEGREES LAST SET IN 2023.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY FURTHER INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST
U.S. COAST. WINDS SHIFT MORE OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BUT REMAIN EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE TREASURE COAST, FURTHER SOUTH OF
THE RIDGE AXIS. MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST SUNDAY,
PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND SURFACE HEATING. A
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS ADVECTS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH ENOUGH AGREEMENT IN GLOBAL ENSEMBLES TO KEEP POPS
BELOW 15% FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
WILL CONTINUE WITH LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MID TO UPPER 80S WEST
OF I-95 EACH AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR RECORDS FOR
INLAND SITES (MOSTLY LEESBURG AND SANFORD) SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE MOSTLY FORECAST IN THE MID 60S,
ALTHOUGH BECOMING A LITTLE COOLER ACROSS RURAL LOCATIONS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 123 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO AT
TIMES FRESH EAST-SOUTHEAST BREEZE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WIND SPEEDS WILL MOSTLY BE 10-15
KNOTS, BUT MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS ACROSS THE OFFSHORE
WATERS OF BREVARD COUNTY AND THE TREASURE COAST TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS INCREASE IN WINDS AND LINGERING SEAS UP TO 6 FEET
OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
GULF STREAM WATERS THROUGH AT FRIDAY MORNING. FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ONWARD, BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE AS SEAS LOOK TO FALL TO 3-5 FEET. THE ONSHORE BREEZE
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY, AND COULD SEE AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM EST THU MAR 5 2026
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON STRATU-CU PRODUCING HIGH-MVFR CIGS
HAS LIFTED AT INLAND TERMINALS BUT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE IMPACTS
AT COASTAL TERMINALS, WHICH COULD PERSIST INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
ISO-SCT SHRA HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP SOUTH OF MCO/ISM, AND IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE NORTH AND WEST BETWEEN DAYTIME
HEATING AND INLAND PROGRESSION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. SOME
BRIEF CONVECTIVE MVFR IMPACTS POSSIBLE, AND A TS CAN'T BE RULED
OUT AT I-4 TERMINALS INCLUDING KMCO AFTER 19Z. MOST ACTIVITY
SHOULD PUSH WEST OF THESE TERMINALS AFTER 22Z. HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR TSRA/+SHRA ALONG THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION WEST OF KLEE AFTER
23Z, AND IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT KLEE THROUGH AROUND 03Z. ESE WINDS
10-15 KTS AND OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS, UP TO AROUND 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS AT KVRB-KSUA.
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR-IFR STRATUS ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS MODELS ARE VERY
INCONSISTENT. 16Z LAV/NBM HAD A NOTABLE INCREASE TO 30-50%
CHANCES, WHICH THEN DROPPED TO 30% OR LESS WITH THE 17Z RUN. 18Z
TAFS GENERALLY REFLECT HREF GUIDANCE, CALLING FOR PREVAILING MVFR
AND POSSIBLE IFR IMPACTS FROM AROUND 07Z-14Z. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS AT OTHER ECFL TERMINALS, BUT COULD SEE HIGH-MVFR
STRATO-CU AGAIN DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING. INLAND MOVING SHRA
AND POSSIBLY TSRA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, HIGHEST CHANCES ON
THE WEST SIDE OF THE PENINSULA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 64 82 63 83 / 10 10 10 30
MCO 67 85 68 85 / 10 20 10 40
MLB 66 82 67 82 / 10 10 20 30
VRB 66 82 66 82 / 20 10 20 30
LEE 65 86 65 87 / 30 30 10 30
SFB 65 86 65 85 / 10 20 10 30
ORL 67 86 67 86 / 10 20 10 40
FPR 65 82 65 82 / 20 20 20 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...HALEY
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