974
FXUS62 KMLB 060714
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
214 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 208 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
- POOR BOATING CONDITIONS OFFSHORE AGAIN TODAY. A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS WILL PERSIST AT AREA BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP EACH DAY
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, MAINLY ALONG THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE. THERE IS A LOW (20% OR LESS) CHANCE OF LIGHTNING
STORMS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS, WITH HIGH TEMPS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. THESE WILL BE NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR INLAND SITES THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT-SATURDAY...WILL MONITOR FOR SOME EARLY MORNING LOW
STRATUS CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG POTENTIAL. GREATEST CHANCES THIS MORNING
ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE FRI/SAT
OVERNIGHTS. ELEVATED SOUTHEAST WIND SPEEDS OFF OF THE SURFACE SHOULD
LIMIT THE OVERALL FOG DEVELOPMENT A BIT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLC WITH ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS NEAR TO NORTH OF THE
COVERAGE WARNING AREA WILL KEEP A PERSISTENT ESE/SE FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ALONG THE COAST EACH NIGHT,
DAYTIME SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 MPH AND SOMETIMES 15-20 MPH ALONG
THE COAST WITH SOME HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. WITH THIS PERSISTENT
REGIME WE WILL SEE A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO MOVE ONTO THE COAST, ESP
LATE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS AND SOUTH OF THE CAPE. DURING THE DAY A
DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON. ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD LIGHTNING STORM OR
TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INLAND-
MOVING ECSB. CONVECTIVE CHANCES TODAY GENERALLY 15-24PCT AND 25-
40PCT ON SAT.
HIGHS WILL REACH THE L80S ALONG THE COAST TO M80S INTO THE INTERIOR
TODAY AND SAT. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN MILD AND IN THE 60S.
A CONTINUED THREAT EXISTS AT ALL CENTRAL FL BEACHES FOR NUMEROUS,
STRONG, LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AND OCCASIONAL ROUGH SURF, IN
PART, DUE TO THE PERSISTENT ENE LONG PERIOD SWELL. IT IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED TO ENTER THE CHILLY SURF THROUGH THIS WEEKEND!
SUN-THU...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING REMAINS NEAR OR ACROSS
THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. SURFACE WINDS
REMAIN MOSTLY CONSISTENT, BUT MAY VEER A BIT MORE SE/S AT TIMES,
AS THE MAINLY ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES. PERIODIC ONSHORE-MOVING
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AND AN ISOLD AFTN/EVENING LIGHTNING STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS THE INTERIOR, THOUGH PWATS WILL BE
MODEST AT BEST UNTIL AT LEAST THU. FOR MOST DAYS, A 20PCT OR LESS
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL EXIST AND MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN DRY AS A WHOLE.
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THRU THIS PERIOD. HIGHS EACH
DAY IN THE L80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST WITH M-U80S INTO THE
INTERIOR, WITH A 90F READING OR TWO WITHIN REACH. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL FLIRT WITH RECORDS WHICH RUN IN THE U80S TO AROUND 90F EACH OF
THESE DAYS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD AND
CONTINUE IN THE 60S AREAWIDE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 208 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
A PERSISTENT PATTERN IN PLACE AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS
THE WESTERN ATLC AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS NORTH TO NEAR THE AREA
THRU SAT WITH THE AXIS MUCH CLOSER TO ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS CONTINUE MAINLY ONSHORE
(ESE/SE), BUT MAY VEER A BIT MORE SSE/S AT TIMES. WIND SPEEDS
TYPICALLY 10-15 KTS, BUT COULD SEE A LITTLE STRONGER OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AT TIMES (14-18 KTS). INITIAL SEAS 3-5 FT, EXCEPT
5-6 FT OFFSHORE TODAY WILL BECOME 3-5 FT AREAWIDE BY THIS EVENING
THRU THE EXTENDED AS THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE LONG PERIOD SWELL
CONTINUES. ISOLD-WDLY SCT SHOWER CHANCES EXISTS FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD AND AN ISOLD LIGHTNING STORM THREAT (LESS THAN 20PCT)
CANNOT BE RULED OUT INTO THIS WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1258 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2026
"BOUNCY" CEILINGS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THIS
WELL, RESULTING IN LOW TO MODERATE FORECAST CONFIDENCE. HAVE KEPT
PREVAILING MVFR IMPACTS AT ISM/LEE THROUGH AROUND SUNRISE WITH
TEMPOS MENTIONED AT SFB/MCO WHERE CONFIDENCE IS LOWER. MVFR TEMPOS
ALSO INCLUDED ALONG THE TREASURE COAST TO BEST CAPTURE ONGOING
OBSERVATIONS. EAST WINDS AROUND 5 KTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS
MORNING REMAIN SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG THE COAST (LIGHTER AT DAB).
EAST WINDS THEN INCREASE TO AROUND 10-12 KTS BY LATE MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON, BECOMING GUSTY AT TIMES ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH VCSH MENTIONED AT MCO/ISM AND VCTS AT LEE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 81 64 81 63 / 10 10 30 10
MCO 85 67 85 66 / 20 10 40 10
MLB 81 66 81 65 / 10 20 40 10
VRB 81 66 81 65 / 10 20 30 10
LEE 86 65 86 65 / 20 10 40 10
SFB 86 65 86 64 / 20 10 30 10
ORL 86 67 86 66 / 20 10 40 10
FPR 81 65 82 64 / 20 20 30 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...LAW
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