425
FNUS72 KMLB 140617
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR BSP-02...BLUE SPRING STATE PARK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
217 AM EDT SAT MAR 14 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON MARCH 14.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASES THIS WEEKEND, LEADING TO A 40% CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TODAY. WITH THAT SAID, GUIDANCE
DOES NOT SUPPORT AN ALL-DAY WASHOUT. ON SUNDAY, THERE IS A
MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER RISK FOR GUSTY WINDS AND COIN-SIZED HAIL,
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY
INCREASE TO 70-80%.
WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST UP TO 12 MPH TODAY, SHIFTING TO THE
SOUTH ON SUNDAY 10-15 MPH. EXPECT GOOD PEAK DISPERSION BY
AFTERNOON.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (50-60 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......40 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 80.
MIN HUMIDITY........64 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 3500 FT AGL IN THE
AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 17 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....8 INCREASING TO 58.
LVORI...............6 DECREASING TO 2.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........57 53 60 64 68 67 60 56 51 39
WEATHER COV.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH SCH
WEATHER TYPE....RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW RW
TSTM COV........ SCH SCH SCH
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 30 30 40 40 40 40 30 20 20
TEMP............65 66 70 74 75 78 78 78 79 78
RH..............97 97 90 82 79 71 69 67 64 64
20 FT WIND DIR..NE NE NE NE E E E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..5 6 7 8 10 10 12 12 12 12
20 FT WIND GUST.9 12 13 15 16 18 20 20 20 18
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.5 0.8 1.4 2.0 2.4 2.9 3.0 3.4 3.5 3.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.9 10 12 13 14 15 16 16 16 17
DISPERSION IDX..5 10 20 31 39 45 52 54 58 57
LVORI...........6 6 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY CLOUDY (35-45 PERCENT) THEN BECOMING
MOSTLY CLOUDY (50-60 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE EVENING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS LATE IN THE EVENING, THEN SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS OVERNIGHT.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 64.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1100 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL IN THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 8 TO 17 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....52 DECREASING TO 6.
LVORI...............1 INCREASING TO 9.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........36 42 42 42 54 51
WEATHER COV.....S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR NONE RNSHWR NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).20 10 20 10 20 20
TEMP............77 72 69 68 66 66
RH..............67 79 90 93 100 100
20 FT WIND......E 12 E 9 E 7 E 5 E 3 E 3
20 FT WIND GUST.18 16 13 10 9 8
MIX HGT (FT)....2800 1500 800 700 700 500
TRANSPORT WIND..E 17 E 15 E 12 E 10 E 10 E 8
DISPERSION IDX..52 16 6 6 5 4
LVORI...........1 3 5 6 8 8
SUNDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........PARTLY SUNNY (45-55 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWERS WITH
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......80 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 86.
MIN HUMIDITY........61 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING SOUTH 5 TO 9 MPH EARLY IN
THE MORNING. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTY
AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2000 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4000 FT AGL LATE IN
THE MORNING, THEN INCREASING TO 5400 FT AGL
EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON DECREASING TO 3200 FT
AGL LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTH 8 TO 17 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 16 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
INCREASING TO 31 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING
TO 48 LATE IN THE MORNING INCREASING TO 68
INCREASING TO 79 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
DECREASING TO 54 DECREASING TO 30 LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............9 DECREASING TO 2.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
SKY (%).........53 56 42 56
WEATHER COV..... S CHC S CHC DEFNTE
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ CHANCE
CHC OF PCPN (%).10 20 20 80
TEMP............66 68 79 85
RH..............100 100 79 61
20 FT WIND......SE 3G7 S 6G8 S 8G15 S 9G16
MIX HGT (FT)....400 1200 4000 4500
TRANSPORT WIND..SE 8 S 10 S 16 S 16
DISPERSION IDX..3 16 68 74
LVORI...........9 5 3 1
FORECASTER...HEIL
REQUESTED BY...DUSTIN ALLEN
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2605415.3/MLB
.DELDT 03/14/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JAMES.TERRELL@FLORIDADEP.GOV,DUSTIN.L.ALLEN@FLORIDADEP.GOV
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page