271
FXUS62 KMLB 251753
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
153 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS AT ALL CENTRAL FLORIDA
ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. ENTERING THE SURF IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED!
- THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS CONTINUES
TODAY. A STRONG STORM AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 TO 4
INCHES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- GRADUALLY DRIER LATE THIS WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES SATURDAY, BRINGING GUSTY WINDS, RAIN CHANCES, AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE CONTINUED EARLY
THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. IN PARTICULAR,
A STRONG STORM NEAR MELBOURNE BECAME NEARLY STATIONARY SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT, PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF 2.5 TO 4.5 INCHES. HIGH
RAIN RATES LED TO QUICK ACCUMULATION OVER ABOUT 90 MINUTES,
RESULTING IN A REPORT OF STANDING WATER ON AREA ROADS. THIS OCCURRED
VERY NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF A STALLED STATIONARY BOUNDARY, WHERE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND OPPOSING LOW-LEVEL FLOW WERE PRESENT.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE SLOWLY PUSHING
TOWARD THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. ACTIVITY ALONG THE STATIONARY
FRONT, MORE SPECIFICALLY, WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY. CAM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR COASTAL CONVECTION, FOLLOWED BY ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS FARTHER INLAND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OF TO 2
TO 4 INCHES (CANNOT RULE OUT UP TO 5 INCHES), GUSTY WINDS, AND
SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN A BIT COOLER DUE TO SOME MORE CLOUDS AND
SLIGHTLY MODIFIED AIR NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO RESUME AFTER SUNSET FOR MOST LOCATIONS,
THOUGH SOME ADDITIONAL COASTAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT.
AT AREA BEACHES, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS TODAY. ENTERING
THE WATER IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED!
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXPANDING H5 RIDGE
REACHES FLORIDA LATER IN THE WEEK AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY DISSIPATES
SOUTH OF THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE
REGION, LARGELY MAINTAINING WEAK ONSHORE FLOW. JUST ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO SPARK AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO WITHIN THE
ONSHORE FLOW THURSDAY. HOWEVER, MOST LOCATIONS LOOK TO STAY DRY AS
TEMPERATURES WARM BACK UP INTO THE LOW/MID 80S. FRIDAY'S FORECAST
BRINGS WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DRY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE 60S.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA
SATURDAY MORNING AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND MILD LOCALLY. AS THE
FRONT PRESSES SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY, NORTHEAST WINDS NOTABLY
INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH (ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST
AND NORTH OF I-4). MOISTURE ALSO INCREASES WITH PW SURGING TO 1.5-
1.6" ALONG THE FRONT. THIS, PLUS INCREASED CONVERGENCE, SUGGESTS
RAIN CHANCES OF 30 TO 50 PERCENT. THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS (UP TO 1")
LOOK TO FOCUS FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST,
EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THOUGH GREATER MOISTURE
BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER ON SUNDAY, ISOLATED COASTAL
SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SHALLOW, ONSHORE-MOVING
SHOWERS WOULD BE EMBEDDED IN THE STOUT ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH REMAINS
GUSTY SUNDAY AND BREEZY MONDAY-TUESDAY. H5 RIDGING BECOMES WELL
ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE SOUTHERN U.S.,
SO NO MAJOR PATTERN CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS FOR LATE MARCH, ONLY
REACHING THE 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WARM UP COMMENCES TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 312 AM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC,
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS, GUSTING AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES
NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET. SEAS ARE RESPONDING, ALREADY AT 10 FEET
NEAR BUOY 41009 EARLY THIS MORNING. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
PLACE THROUGH 8 PM FOR ALL MARINE LEGS AND WILL EVENTUALLY BE
REDUCED TO THE GULF STREAM THIS EVENING AS SEAS/WINDS SUBSIDE.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY, PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.
ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE THURSDAY AS BOATING CONDITIONS
IMPROVE AND STAY GENERALLY FAVORABLE THROUGH FRIDAY. DRIER WEATHER
IS FORECAST ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE
WATERS. THEN, ANOTHER COLD FRONT PRESSES SOUTH ON SATURDAY, QUICKLY
STRENGTHENING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. BRIEF
GALE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS BOATING
CONDITIONS DEVELOP AS A RESULT, BEGINNING MID DAY SATURDAY AND
LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY. IN ADDITION, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE OVER ECFL
FROM THE WEAKLY ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC
WATERS HAS BEEN INHIBITING CONVECTION, AND SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON
ONLY ISO SHRA A COUPLE STRUGGLING TSRA HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN POP GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN ON A DOWNWARD
TREND THE LAST FEW MODEL CYCLES. FOR THIS PACKAGE, KEPT VCSH AS IS
BUT REMOVED VCTS, AND HAVE NO TEMPOS FOR CONVECTIVE IMACTS. WILL
AMD AS NEEDED IF A TSRA MANAGED TO DEVELOP INVOF A TERMINAL. POP
CHANCES AFTER 03Z 20% OR LESS AT COASTAL TERMINALS AND 10% OR LESS
AT INLAND TERMINALS. VERY LOW (20% OR LESS) CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER AROUND 10Z AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. ANY FOG THAT
MANAGES TO DEVELOP EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY 14Z AT THE LATEST. LOW
CHANCES (20% OR LESS) FOR ISO SHRA TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
THURSDAY. ONSHORE WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAYTIME,
BECOMING LIGHT/VRB OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 62 80 61 84 / 20 20 0 10
MCO 65 82 64 87 / 10 20 0 10
MLB 64 80 64 81 / 20 20 0 10
VRB 63 81 63 82 / 20 10 0 10
LEE 63 83 63 87 / 0 20 0 10
SFB 63 83 63 87 / 10 20 0 10
ORL 64 83 64 87 / 10 20 0 10
FPR 62 81 62 82 / 20 10 0 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ550-552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ555-570-572-
575.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...HALEY
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