642
FXUS62 KMLB 251857
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
257 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS AT ALL CENTRAL FLORIDA
ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. ENTERING THE SURF IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED!
- GRADUALLY DRIER LATE THIS WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES SATURDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES, WINDY CONDITIONS, AND DETERIORATING BEACH AND
BOATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
REST OF TODAY-FRIDAY...SO FAR, CONVECTION HAS NOT PANNED OUT QUITE
AS MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED. INSTEAD, CURRENT COVERAGE
APPEARS CLOSEST TO THE HRRR, WITH THIS MORNING'S XMR SOUNDING
FINDING DRIER AIR ABOVE 700MB LIKELY LIMITING CONVECTIVE GROWTH.
THUS, HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S UPDATE, KEEPING
PEAK CHANCES BELOW 40%. WHILE EVEN THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH OF ORLANDO. AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES INLAND AND INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA
THROUGH EVENING, POPS DIMINISH, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS DRIFTING ONSHORE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED IN MELBOURNE EARLY
THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY WASHES
OUT. BUT, SLOWER STORM MOTIONS NEAR 10 MPH COULD ALLOW FOR RAINFALL
TOTALS NEAR 2" IN SOME SPOTS. TONIGHT, LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE
LOWER 60S.
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND ESTABLISH A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. LOW RAIN CHANCES AROUND 20% OR LESS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THE POSITION OF THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH INCREASES TO AROUND 10
MPH EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. HIGHS INCREASE EACH
DAY, RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND MID-80S FRIDAY OVER THE
INTERIOR, WHILE COASTAL AREAS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE THREAT FOR FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARER SKIES.
SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY MORNING AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND
MILD LOCALLY. AS THE FRONT PRESSES SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY,
NORTHEAST WINDS NOTABLY INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH
(ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST AND NORTH OF I-4, WHICH COULD SEE GUSTS
NEAR 40 MPH). MOISTURE ALSO INCREASES WITH PW SURGING TO 1.5-1.6"
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS, PLUS INCREASED CONVERGENCE, SUGGESTS RAIN
CHANCES OF 30 TO 50 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS AND UP TO 60 PERCENT
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS
(UP TO 1") LOOK TO FOCUS FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST, EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THOUGH GREATER
MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER ON SUNDAY,
ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
BECOMING DRIER INTO MID-WEEK. SHALLOW, ONSHORE- MOVING SHOWERS
WOULD BE EMBEDDED IN THE STOUT ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH REMAINS GUSTY
SUNDAY AND BREEZY MONDAY-TUESDAY. H5 RIDGING BECOMES WELL
ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE SOUTHERN
U.S., SO NO MAJOR PATTERN CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS FOR LATE MARCH, ONLY
REACHING THE 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WARM UP COMMENCES TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT, AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. UNTIL THEN, SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEAS UP TO 7-8 FT. SEAS
FALL BELOW 6 FT BY MID- THURSDAY MORNING AND BECOME 2-4 FT FRIDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AT AROUND 5-10 KTS, ENHANCING SLIGHTLY
EACH AFTERNOON AT THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEF, AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT LEADS TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL QUICKLY BUILD
SEAS TO UP TO 13-16 FT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS 25-30 KTS SUNDAY
WILL RELAX INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER, SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE AND WINDS REMAIN
AROUND 20-25 KTS MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY, ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT
OR GALE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 142 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SUBSIDENCE OVER ECFL
FROM THE WEAKLY ORGANIZED DISTURBANCE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC
WATERS HAS BEEN INHIBITING CONVECTION, AND SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON
ONLY ISO SHRA A COUPLE STRUGGLING TSRA HAVE MANAGED TO DEVELOP.
THIS IS REFLECTED IN POP GUIDANCE WHICH HAS BEEN ON A DOWNWARD
TREND THE LAST FEW MODEL CYCLES. FOR THIS PACKAGE, KEPT VCSH AS IS
BUT REMOVED VCTS, AND HAVE NO TEMPOS FOR CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. WILL
AMD AS NEEDED IF A TSRA MANAGED TO DEVELOP INVOF A TERMINAL. POP
CHANCES AFTER 03Z 20% OR LESS AT COASTAL TERMINALS AND 10% OR LESS
AT INLAND TERMINALS. VERY LOW (20% OR LESS) CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER AROUND 10Z AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. ANY FOG THAT
MANAGES TO DEVELOP EXPECTED TO CLEAR BY 14Z AT THE LATEST. LOW
CHANCES (20% OR LESS) FOR ISO SHRA TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
THURSDAY. ONSHORE WINDS GENERALLY 5-10 KTS DURING THE DAYTIME,
BECOMING LIGHT/VRB OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 62 80 61 84 / 20 20 0 10
MCO 65 82 64 87 / 10 20 0 10
MLB 64 80 64 81 / 20 20 0 10
VRB 63 81 63 82 / 20 10 0 10
LEE 63 83 63 87 / 0 20 0 10
SFB 63 83 63 87 / 10 20 0 10
ORL 64 83 64 87 / 10 20 0 10
FPR 62 81 62 82 / 20 10 0 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ550-552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ555-570-572-
575.
DISCUSSION...LEAHY
AVIATION...HALEY
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