339
FXUS62 KMLB 260525
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
125 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS AT ALL CENTRAL FLORIDA
ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. ENTERING THE SURF IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED!
- GRADUALLY DRIER LATE THIS WEEK BEFORE THE NEXT COLD FRONT
ARRIVES SATURDAY.
- RAIN CHANCES, WINDY CONDITIONS, AND DETERIORATING BEACH AND
BOATING CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
REST OF TODAY-FRIDAY...SO FAR, CONVECTION HAS NOT PANNED OUT QUITE
AS MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE SUGGESTED. INSTEAD, CURRENT COVERAGE
APPEARS CLOSEST TO THE HRRR, WITH THIS MORNING'S XMR SOUNDING
FINDING DRIER AIR ABOVE 700MB LIKELY LIMITING CONVECTIVE GROWTH.
THUS, HAVE TRENDED POPS DOWN WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S UPDATE, KEEPING
PEAK CHANCES BELOW 40%. WHILE EVEN THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE,
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH OF ORLANDO. AS THE SEA
BREEZE PUSHES INLAND AND INTO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA
THROUGH EVENING, POPS DIMINISH, THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
AND STORMS DRIFTING ONSHORE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED IN MELBOURNE EARLY
THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO DIMINISH AS THE STALLED BOUNDARY WASHES
OUT. BUT, SLOWER STORM MOTIONS NEAR 10 MPH COULD ALLOW FOR RAINFALL
TOTALS NEAR 2" IN SOME SPOTS. TONIGHT, LOWS ARE FORECAST IN THE
LOWER 60S.
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND ESTABLISH A RIDGE AXIS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. LOW RAIN CHANCES AROUND 20% OR LESS ARE FORECAST THROUGH
THE PERIOD, WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. THE POSITION OF THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH INCREASES TO AROUND 10
MPH EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. HIGHS INCREASE EACH
DAY, RISING INTO THE LOWER 80S THURSDAY AND MID-80S FRIDAY OVER THE
INTERIOR, WHILE COASTAL AREAS REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE THREAT FOR FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARER SKIES.
SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)...ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES
INTO NORTH FLORIDA SATURDAY MORNING AS CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND
MILD LOCALLY. AS THE FRONT PRESSES SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY,
NORTHEAST WINDS NOTABLY INCREASE TO 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS 25-35 MPH
(ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST AND NORTH OF I-4, WHICH COULD SEE GUSTS
NEAR 40 MPH). MOISTURE ALSO INCREASES WITH PW SURGING TO 1.5-1.6"
ALONG THE FRONT. THIS, PLUS INCREASED CONVERGENCE, SUGGESTS RAIN
CHANCES OF 30 TO 50 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS AND UP TO 60 PERCENT
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS
(UP TO 1") LOOK TO FOCUS FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
COAST, EXTENDING AS FAR WEST AS LAKE OKEECHOBEE. THOUGH GREATER
MOISTURE BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA LATER ON SUNDAY,
ISOLATED COASTAL SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE
BECOMING DRIER INTO MID-WEEK. SHALLOW, ONSHORE- MOVING SHOWERS
WOULD BE EMBEDDED IN THE STOUT ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH REMAINS GUSTY
SUNDAY AND BREEZY MONDAY-TUESDAY. H5 RIDGING BECOMES WELL
ESTABLISHED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK OVER THE SOUTHERN
U.S., SO NO MAJOR PATTERN CHANGES ARE ANTICIPATED FROM SUNDAY
ONWARD.
TEMPERATURES DROP TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS FOR LATE MARCH, ONLY
REACHING THE 70S SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WARM UP COMMENCES TUESDAY WITH
HIGHS BACK IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 233 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2026
HAZARDOUS SEAS TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH INTO TONIGHT, AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. UNTIL THEN, SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR SEAS UP TO 7-8 FT. SEAS
FALL BELOW 6 FT BY MID- THURSDAY MORNING AND BECOME 2-4 FT FRIDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES AT AROUND 5-10 KTS, ENHANCING SLIGHTLY
EACH AFTERNOON AT THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WORK WEEK.
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BE BRIEF, AS A STRONG
COLD FRONT LEADS TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL QUICKLY BUILD
SEAS TO UP TO 13-16 FT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS 25-30 KTS SUNDAY
WILL RELAX INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS OVER THE
AREA. HOWEVER, SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE AND WINDS REMAIN
AROUND 20-25 KTS MONDAY. NEEDLESS TO SAY, ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT
OR GALE HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD, OUTSIDE OF
SOME ONGOING MVFR CIGS AT DAB. BCFG POSSIBLE AT THE INTERIOR
TERMINALS AND DAB AFTER 10Z, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AND
CONDITIONS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY FURTHER CIG OR VIS
REDUCTIONS. ONSHORE WINDS FORECAST AFTER 15Z AT MOST SITES AROUND
10 KNOTS, BECOMING SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE INTERIOR
TERMINALS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALONG THE COAST. LOW CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TODAY NEAR THE INTERIOR TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW
TO MAKE MENTION OF WITHIN THIS PACKAGE. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AND AMEND AS NEEDED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 80 62 84 62 / 20 0 0 0
MCO 83 63 87 65 / 20 0 10 0
MLB 80 64 82 64 / 20 0 10 0
VRB 80 63 82 63 / 10 10 10 0
LEE 83 63 87 63 / 20 0 10 0
SFB 83 63 87 64 / 20 0 10 0
ORL 83 64 87 65 / 20 0 10 0
FPR 81 62 82 62 / 10 10 10 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ555-570-572-575.
DISCUSSION...LEAHY
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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