840
FXUS62 KMLB 261748
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
148 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT ALL CENTRAL FLORIDA
ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. ENTERING THE SURF IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED!
- ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY WITH A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR FRIDAY.
- WINDY CONDITIONS AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. HAZARDOUS BEACH AND BOATING
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
TODAY-FRIDAY...OVERALL DRIER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE REST OF
THE WORK WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
MOST OF THE AREA IS DRY EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
BRIEF SHOWER THAT DISSIPATES AS QUICKLY AS IT DEVELOPS. TEMPERATURES
ARE MILD, SPANNING THE 60S TO LOW 70S. TODAY WILL FEATURE A MIX OF
CLOUDS AND SUNSHINE, THOUGH ISOLATED SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS
THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED MOISTURE
CONCENTRATED AROUND THE 850MB LEVEL AND DRY AIR ABOVE/BELOW THIS
LEVEL WILL LIMIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE
FORECAST MAINTAINS A 15-20 PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN, MAINLY NORTH OF
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST. THE SEA BREEZE SHOULD CLEAR
OUT CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND KEEP TEMPS THERE A FEW DEGREES COOLER
(UPPER 70S) WITH INLAND LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOW/MID 80S.
EVEN WARMER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE PENINSULA AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC
WATERS. IF YOU ARE LOOKING TO GET OUTSIDE AND ENJOY SOME PLEASANT
SPRINGTIME WEATHER, FRIDAY IS THAT DAY. WINDS STAY LIGHT ALL DAY
WITH ONLY A LIGHT WIND DEVELOPING AS THE SEA BREEZE MIGRATES INLAND
AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT SETTLE INTO THE 60S FOR MOST, RUNNING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR LATE MARCH.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...CHANGES ARE IN STORE THIS WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
QUICKLY PRESSES SOUTH SATURDAY, BRINGING WINDY AND HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS AND THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS. HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BREAKS DOWN LOCALLY, THOUGH DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD LAST
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING FOR MOST. A RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE IS
ANTICIPATED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT, HELPING TO SATURATE THE
LOWER LEVELS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. RAIN
CHANCES CLIMB FROM 20-40 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON TO AROUND 60-65
PERCENT, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL SATURDAY
NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH ON SUNDAY WITH TOTAL RAIN
AMOUNTS HIGHEST ALONG THE TREASURE COAST (AROUND 1-1.25").
IT WILL BE WINDY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS REACHING 20-30 MPH. IN FACT, AREAS NORTH OF
ORLANDO AND PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE COAST MAY EXPERIENCE 30-40
MPH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE
CONSIDERED FOR THESE AREAS IN FUTURE UPDATES. LIFE-THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS AND VERY ROUGH SURF WILL EXIST AT AREA BEACHES, SO
ENTERING THE WATER WILL BE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR WARMEST SATURDAY, RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE MID 80S ORLANDO SOUTHWARD. COOLER AIR AND
MORE CLOUDS SPILL IN ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW
TO MID 70S, STAYING SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...COASTAL SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY AS BREEZY BUT SIGNIFICANTLY LESS GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW
PERSISTS. THESE COASTAL SHOWERS MAY OCCASIONALLY MOVE FARTHER INLAND
DURING THE DAYTIME. HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED THROUGH
MID WEEK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY REBOUND EACH DAY, REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 80S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY AND
FRIDAY, MAINTAINING LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS (LESS THAN 15 KNOTS).
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
BRIEF LIGHTNING STORM, WITH CHANCES TAPERING OFF THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SEAS 3-5 FEET TODAY, DECREASING TO 2-4 FEET FRIDAY.
A STRONG COLD FRONT ARRIVES SATURDAY WITH RAPIDLY BUILDING WINDS AND
SEAS. HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT, LASTING INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR GALE-FORCE NORTHEAST WINDS BUILD SEAS AS HIGH
AS 10-15 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EAST WINDS
DECREASE TO 20-25+ KNOTS SUNDAY AND EVENTUALLY TO 15-20 KNOTS
MONDAY. ELEVATED SEAS OF 6-9 FEET LINGER THROUGH MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS REESTABLISHED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 148 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG AND INLAND OF THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH FOR KDAB/KTIX THROUGH 20Z AND
FOR INLAND TAF SITES (KMCO/KISM/KSFB/KLEE) THROUGH 22-00Z.
COVERAGE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY TEMPO GROUPS, BUT WILL
MONITOR SHOULD ANY BE NEEDED FOR BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FROM
THIS ACTIVITY. CAN'T RULE OUT A STORM OR TWO, BUT MODEST
INSTABILITY AND WEAK LAPSE RATES KEEPS POTENTIAL FOR LIGHTNING
LOW (10% OR LESS).
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST. MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING FRIDAY (MAINLY BETWEEN 8-13Z),
BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ANY TEMPO CIG/VIS
REDUCTIONS IN THE TAFS THIS PACKAGE.
EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE UP TO 8-12 KNOTS BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE AS
IT MOVES INLAND, AND THEN WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL THEN DEVELOP
AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON, INCREASING WINDS OUT OF THE EAST AGAIN
AROUND 8-12 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 62 84 62 78 / 0 10 0 40
MCO 64 87 65 85 / 0 10 0 30
MLB 64 82 64 81 / 0 10 0 40
VRB 63 83 63 83 / 0 10 0 40
LEE 64 87 63 80 / 0 10 0 20
SFB 63 87 64 81 / 0 10 0 30
ORL 65 87 66 82 / 0 10 0 30
FPR 62 83 62 83 / 0 10 0 40
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ550-570.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ552-572.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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