550
FXUS62 KMLB 270520
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
120 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT ALL CENTRAL FLORIDA
ATLANTIC BEACHES TODAY. ENTERING THE SURF IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED!
- ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR
FRIDAY.
- WINDY CONDITIONS AND INCREASED RAIN CHANCES ARRIVE THIS WEEKEND
IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. HAZARDOUS BEACH AND BOATING
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
REST OF TODAY-FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS THROUGH FRIDAY, AS
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS REMAINS DRAPED OVER THE LOCAL AREA. A FEW
SHOWERS FIGHT TO SURVIVE DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ALOFT THIS
AFTERNOON AS THEY DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. THIS ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING, BEFORE MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA. MOST PLACES WILL REMAIN DRY, WITH
PEAK POPS OVER LAND 20% OR LESS. FRIDAY, POPS REMAIN UNDER 15%
AREA-WIDE. ONSHORE FLOW INCREASES TO 10 MPH ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS, WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE FLOW OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF I-4. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S TODAY WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 80S WEST OF I-95 TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WHILE ONSHORE FLOW
KEEPS COASTAL AREAS IN THE LOWER 80S.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EASTWARD INTO THE MID-
ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND, PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON SATURDAY. WHILE QUICK MOVING EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THE
FRONT WILL THEN SLOW, LINGERING NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON,
BEFORE A RIBBON OF MOISTURE INCREASES PWATS FROM 1.2-1.3" TO
1.4-1.5". THIS, COMBINED WITH SUPPORT NEAR AND ALONG THE FRONT,
WITH BRING AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY. POPS 30- 60% WILL BEGIN ALONG THE VOLUSIA
COUNTY COAST, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES SPREADING SOUTHWARD INTO
SUNDAY WITH THE FRONT. WHILE COASTAL AREAS WILL SEE THE MOST
ACTIVITY, SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO DRIFT INLAND, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE AFTERNOONS. WARM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY, WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S OVER THE INTERIOR SOUTH OF ORLANDO. THEN, HIGHS
COOL TO THE MID-70S SUNDAY.
THE MAIN STORY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE THE WINDS. NORTH-
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE INITIALLY MILD EARLY
SATURDAY. THEN, WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASE WITH THE FRONT AS THEY VEER
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY. WIDESPREAD WINDS 15-20 MPH, WITH GUSTS 20-30
MPH, WITH MAKE FOR A WINDY AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ESPECIALLY WINDY
ALONG THE COAST FROM BREVARD COUNTY NORTHWARD, WHERE GUSTS TO AROUND
40 MPH ARE FORECAST. A WIND ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED.
REGARDLESS, BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS THIS
WEEKEND, WITH A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AND VERY
ROUGH SURF. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD REMAIN OUT OF THE WATER.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS WINDS
SLOWLY SUBSIDE. HOWEVER, ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR
10-15 MPH THROUGH MID-WEEK. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW STORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR
SOUTH OF ORLANDO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM ONCE AGAIN FROM THE LOWER
80S MONDAY TO THE MID-80S THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 230 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THEN, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO RAPIDLY
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. NEAR GALE-FORCE
WINDS WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL DEVELOP SOUTHWARD
INTO SUNDAY MORNING. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WATERS
NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET AND WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED
SOUTHWARD. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 11-15 FT
(HIGHEST IN THE GULF STREAM). WINDS SLACKEN TO AROUND 20-25 KTS
SUNDAY AS THEY VEER ONSHORE, THOUGH WINDS 15-20 KTS LOOK TO
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL ALSO BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE,
REMAINING UP TO 7 FT INTO TUESDAY. THUS, HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO LINGER. DRIER CONDITIONS INTO FRIDAY,
BEFORE THE RETURN OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS THIS
WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 101 AM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
GENERALLY VFR, BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME EARLY MORNING
PATCHY (DENSE) FOG POTENTIAL, THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON
THIS. LIGHT/VARIABLE MORNING WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE IN THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZE FORMATION AND THIS
TRANSITION GRADUALLY PUSHES INTO THE INTERIOR THRU LATE DAY.
HIGHEST SPEEDS UP TO AROUND 12 KTS ACROSS COASTAL TAF SITES.
PREVIOUS...LOOKING AHEAD, THOSE PLANNING FLIGHTS ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SHOULD BE ADVISED OF INCREASING NNE WINDS AND POTENTIAL
CATEGORICAL RESTRICTIONS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 84 62 77 62 / 10 10 40 30
MCO 86 66 82 65 / 20 20 30 30
MLB 82 65 81 66 / 10 10 50 50
VRB 83 63 82 67 / 10 10 40 50
LEE 87 62 80 61 / 10 10 10 20
SFB 87 64 80 62 / 20 10 30 30
ORL 87 65 81 64 / 20 20 30 30
FPR 83 62 83 66 / 10 10 40 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ550-570.
GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR
AMZ552-572.
DISCUSSION...LEAHY
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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