105
FXUS62 KMLB 271951
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
351 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
- SCATTERED GUSTY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS
WEEKEND AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSES CENTRAL FLORIDA, STALLING
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE THIS WEEKEND.
- A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
SATURDAY AS WINDS INCREASE TO 20-30 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
35-40 MPH. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST.
- HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND AS A RESULT OF INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS
DUE TO THE FRONT. ENTERING THE SURF IS NOT ADVISED THIS WEEKEND!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT... A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE TURNING
ONSHORE AS THE SEA BREEZES CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY MOVE INLAND. MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT
NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. OTHERWISE, A LOW CHANCE (~20%) FOR SHOWERS
EXISTS ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
SEA BREEZES COLLIDE, BUT LIGHTNING NOT EXPECTED. CONDITIONS REMAIN
GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST AND NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING, BUT HREF PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW (~20-30%) AT THIS TIME.
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY... A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY,
SLOWING NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE BEFORE STALLING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA ON
SUNDAY. THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BEHIND THE FRONT AS
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SLIDES EASTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND TOWARDS
THE MID ATLANTIC SEABOARD. WEATHER REMAINS MOSTLY QUIET TO START
SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE WINDY AND GUSTY CONDITIONS RAPIDLY BUILD
INTO THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
STARTING AT 11AM FROM BREVARD AND OSCEOLA NORTHWARD FOR NORTH-
NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH AND FREQUENT GUSTS 35-40
MPH, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THE WIND ADVISORY THEN EXPANDS TO
INCLUDE THE TREASURE COAST COUNTIES AT 2PM AS WINDY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS SPREAD SOUTHWARD INTO THE EVENING. BEACH CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SUNDAY,
BECOMING HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS. LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND ROUGH SURF
WILL BECOME PRESENT IN THE SURF ZONE WITH A HIGH RISK OF RISK OF
LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL TAKE EFFECT
ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COAST AT 2PM, EXPANDING TO INCLUDE THE
TREASURE COAST AT 8PM. MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH EROSION WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH AS
FLOW SHIFTS MORE DIRECTLY ONSHORE INTO SUNDAY WITH BREEZY EAST WINDS
15-20 MPH, GUSTING 30-35 MPH. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS AND GUSTS ARE
FORECAST ALONG THE COAST ON SUNDAY, AND CANNOT RULE AN EXTENSION OF
THE WIND ADVISORY INTO THE DAY PERIOD SUNDAY FOR COASTAL LOCATIONS
EAST OF I-95.
SATURDAY MORNING REMAINS MOSTLY DRY WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE (~10%)
FOR LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST.
SCATTERED SHOWERS (20-40%) THEN BUILD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA,
MOSTLY AFTER 2PM. AS THE FRONT STALLS, MOISTURE WILL LINGER SOUTH OF
THE CAPE, SUPPORTING CONTINUED ROUNDS OF ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS
SATURDAY NIGHT (40-60%) AND SUNDAY (30-50%). LIMITED INSTABILITY
WILL KEEP LIGHTNING CHANCES LOW (20-30%) WITH THE BEST CHANCE ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST. REGARDLESS OF STORM DEVELOPMENT, GUSTY SHOWERS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. WIDESPREAD RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LESS THAN ONE INCH PROVIDING
LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE CURRENT DROUGHT. HOWEVER, GLOBAL ENSEMBLES
SUGGEST GREATEST QPF ALONG THE IMMEDIATE TREASURE COAST WHERE THERE
IS A 20% CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED ACCUMULATIONS TO EXCEED ONE INCH.
HIGH TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA ON SATURDAY, SPREADING THE 80S. CLOUD COVER AND COOLER AIR
WILL THEN BRING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S. MORNING LOWS HOLD RELATIVELY STEADY IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S.
MONDAY-THURSDAY (PREVIOUS)...THE SURFACE HIGH SITUATED ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN US THIS WEEKEND WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH, THOUGH PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE
TOWARDS THE AREA. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
LINGERING MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE LOW TO MEDIUM RAIN CHANCES (20-50%)
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON MONDAY AND LOW RAIN CHANCES (20-30%)
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OCCUR PRIMARILY DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND
MOVES INLAND, SUPPORTING SHOWER DEVELOPMENT PRIMARILY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE, WITH
VALUES EVENTUALLY REACHING ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 351 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
BEFORE WINDS AND SEAS RAPIDLY DETERIORATE BEHIND A COLD FRONT. NORTH-
NORTHEAST GALE-FORCE WINDS BEGIN TO SPREAD THE VOLUSIA WATERS LATE
SATURDAY MORNING, FURTHER SPREADING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE TREASURE
COAST WATERS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GALE-FORCE GUSTS
CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS WINDS SHIFT
EAST, WITH WIND SPEEDS SLOW TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. A
GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE VOLUSIA WATERS AT 11AM
SATURDAY, EXPANDING TO THE BREVARD WATERS AT 2PM, AND TREASURE COAST
WATERS AT 8PM. GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW THE WARNING
TO DROP ACROSS THE VOLUSIA AND TREASURE COAST WATERS AT 8AM SUNDAY,
EXPIRING ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST WATERS AT 11AM. SEAS RAPIDLY
BUILD UP TO 12 FT NEARSHORE, INCREASING UP TO 15 FT IN THE GULF
STREAM IN RESPONSE TO STRONG WINDS. AS GALE WARNINGS EXPIRE, SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS SEAS 10-14 FT SLOWLY
SUBSIDE SUNDAY, BECOMING 6-10 FT ON MONDAY. POOR TO HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO MID NEXT WEEK AS ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE 15-
22 KTS AND 6-7 FT SEAS LINGER IN THE GULF STREAM. SCATTERED SHOWERS
INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH GREATEST COVERAGE
THEN SOUTH OF THE CAPE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS IS FORECAST AREAWIDE MONDAY BEFORE DRYING INTO MID
NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 217 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2026
VFR CONDITIONS WILL LARGELY PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION
ACROSS THE INTERIOR, JUST WEST OF KMCO TOWARD SUNSET. HOWEVER,
RAIN CHANCES REMAIN QUITE LOW (10-20%), SO WILL KEEP ANY MENTION
OUT OF THE INLAND TAFS FOR NOW. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, PRODUCING BRIEF IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 08-13Z, BUT NOT MUCH GUIDANCE SUPPORT AT THIS
TIME, SO WILL ALSO NOT INCLUDE IN THE TAFS WITH THIS ISSUANCE.
PASSING FRONT INTO SATURDAY WILL LEAD TO VERY WINDY AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE AFTERNOON,
WITH MVFR CIGS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AS WELL. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL REACH KDAB FIRST (NEAR TO AFTER 15Z), WITH N/NE
WINDS INCREASING TO 20-25 KNOTS AND GUSTS INCREASING TO 30-35
KNOTS. THESE STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER CIGS WILL EXPAND SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THEN THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON (NEAR TO AFTER
18Z) AND LINGER INTO AT LEAST THE EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH
GREATEST RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 63 77 62 74 / 10 30 30 20
MCO 66 84 65 75 / 20 30 30 30
MLB 65 81 66 75 / 10 40 60 40
VRB 63 82 67 76 / 10 30 60 50
LEE 63 80 61 76 / 10 10 20 10
SFB 64 81 63 75 / 10 20 30 20
ORL 66 82 64 75 / 20 30 30 20
FPR 62 83 65 76 / 10 30 60 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ041-
044>046-053-144-247-547.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ141-
347-447-647-747.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
FLZ141-347-447-647-747.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 5 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ154-
159-164.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
FLZ154-159-164.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR FLZ254-
259-264.
AM...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ550-
570.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ552-
572.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM SATURDAY TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ555-
575.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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