968
FXUS62 KMLB 280720
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
320 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
- A QUICK-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG, GUSTY WINDS,
HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS, AND
INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A WIND ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT ACROSS MOST OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA TODAY FOR WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COAST.
- HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST DUE TO THE RAPIDLY INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. ENTERING
THE OCEAN AS EITHER A SWIMMER OR A MARINER IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED THIS WEEKEND!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
TODAY-SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA, WITH ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT STRETCHING SOUTHWESTWARD
ACROSS GEORGIA TO JUST NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE LOW
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE, DRAGGING THE COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH TODAY. BY TONIGHT, THE FRONT IS
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE SOUTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WHERE IT WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO SUNDAY. THE
QUICK-MOVING NATURE OF THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO A RAPIDLY
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE
ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. AS A RESULT, NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
TODAY AND EASTERLY WINDS ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE WINDY AND
GUSTY NEARLY AREAWIDE. WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 20 TO 30
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST.
A WIND ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT FOR OSCEOLA TO BREVARD AND AREAS
NORTHWARD AT 11 AM AND FOR THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
EXCLUDING OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AFTER 2 PM. INTERIOR COUNTIES AND
INLAND PORTIONS OF COASTAL COUNTIES WILL DROP OUT OF THE WIND
ADVISORY AFTER 2 AM ON SUNDAY, BUT THE COASTAL ZONES WILL REMAIN
UNDER THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH AT LEAST 4 PM ON SUNDAY.
THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LEAD TO RAPIDLY BUILDING SEAS
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS, WHICH IN TURN WILL LEAD TO
HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS. ROUGH, DANGEROUS SURF IS
ANTICIPATED WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF 7 TO 12 FEET POSSIBLE AT
ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES STARTING THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY GOES INTO EFFECT
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUES THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS. ENTERING THE OCEAN IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED! RESIDENTS AND VISITORS SHOULD AVOID ENTERING THE SURF
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
WHILE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THIS
MORNING, MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, WITH PWATS REACHING UP TO 1.4" TODAY AND 1.6" INTO SUNDAY.
WHILE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PRIMARILY KEEP RAIN CHANCES
FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST AND LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS TODAY, THE
GRADUAL SHIFT TO ONSHORE WINDS TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL LEAD TO
STEADILY INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH THE
GREATEST RAIN CHANCES BECOMING MORE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AS THE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD. WHILE THE RAIN
IS MORE THAN WELCOME FOR THE DROUGHT-STRICKEN AREA, THERE WILL
NOT BE ENOUGH RAINFALL TO HELP MUCH WITH SAID DROUGHT GIVEN THE
SCATTERED NATURE OF SHOWERS. IN ADDITION TO THE RAIN, THERE IS
ALSO A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) OF STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS
ACTIVITY. WHILE THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
SUPPORTING ORGANIZED CONVECTION DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY,
ISOLATED ACTIVITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN THE WARM, MOIST
AIRMASS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LIGHTNING STRIKES, SUB-SEVERE WIND
GUSTS, AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT
DECREASES INTO SUNDAY, BUT STILL KEPT A MENTION WITHIN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW.
THE COLD FRONT WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TREND COOLER THIS WEEKEND,
THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL FORECAST TO REACH THE MID TO
UPPER 80S THIS AFTERNOON SOUTH OF THE ORLANDO METRO AND CAPE
CANAVERAL. BY SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES COOL NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.
MONDAY-FRIDAY...THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ANTICIPATED TO
WASH OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST
TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, CAUSING WINDS TO REMAIN
ONSHORE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LOOSEN INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH WINDS FALLING TO AROUND 10 MPH.
ENHANCEMENTS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, AND
THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP ADVECT MOISTURE TOWARDS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN
30-50% INTO MONDAY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOCUSED ACROSS
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA, FALLING TO 20% EACH AFTERNOON FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD AS THE RAIN BECOMES MORE DRIVEN BY THE SEA BREEZE.
ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. ANY SHOWER AND/OR STORM ACTIVITY
THAT DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP IS ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WARM
THROUGH NEXT WEEK, REACHING ABOVE NORMAL VALUES ONCE AGAIN NEARLY
AREAWIDE BY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 320 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE THROUGH TODAY AS A
QUICK- MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS, BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REACH 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
45 KNOTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES. SEAS RESPOND TO THIS BY RAPIDLY
BUILDING TO 7 TO 15 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS,
STARTING FIRST IN THE VOLUSIA WATERS AND EXPANDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THESE HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A GALE WARNING GOES INTO
EFFECT ACROSS THE VOLUSIA WATERS AT 11 AM, EXPANDS TO THE BREVARD
WATERS AT 2 PM, AND THE TREASURE COAST WATERS BY 8 PM. AS THE
FRONT SAGS SOUTH OF THE WATERS, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
BEGIN SUBSIDING, WITH THE GALE WARNINGS TRANSITIONING TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS AND SEAS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE INTO MONDAY, THOUGH SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS AND
SEAS UP TO 6 FEET ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK.
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT, THOUGH ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN SCATTERED. A
20- 50% CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY,
FALLING TO 10-20% FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. A 20-30% CHANCE OF STORMS
IS FORECAST, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS LOW.
ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KNOTS, AND BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME EARLY MORNING PATCHY (GROUND) FOG, THOUGH
GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF MCO AND MOST LIKELY FOR THE
TREASURE COAST TERMINALS AND OBE. A COLD FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTHWARD
ACROSS ECFL DURING THE DAY ON SAT. LIGHTER (EARLY-MID) MORNING
NW/N WINDS WILL QUICKLY RAMP UP WITH DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT VEERING
NNE/NE/ENE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDY CONDITIONS
AND FREQUENTLY GUSTY - HIGHEST SPEEDS NORTHWARD AND ALONG THE
VOLUSIA/BREVARD COASTS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS WILL APPROACH 20-25 KTS
MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO AT LEAST EARLY EVENING, WITH GUSTS 25-35
KTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL STILL REMAIN BREEZY/GUSTY OVERNIGHT. LOWER
CIGS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH A LOW TO MEDIUM CHANCE FOR INTERVALS
OF LOW MVFR AND PERHAPS LOCALLY IFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS (LOWER CONFIDENCE) ALSO POSSIBLE (FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH) MAINLY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. CONVECTION CAPABLE
OF LOCALLY STRONGER WIND GUSTS AND BRIEF IFR CONDS.
AIRPORT WEATHER WARNINGS (AWWS) MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED THIS
AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING FOR DAB & MCO/ORL FOR A PERIOD OF SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 25 KTS OR GREATER.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 78 62 73 63 / 30 20 20 10
MCO 84 65 75 65 / 20 20 30 10
MLB 81 66 75 66 / 30 50 40 20
VRB 83 66 76 66 / 20 50 50 30
LEE 81 62 76 63 / 10 10 20 10
SFB 82 63 75 63 / 20 20 20 10
ORL 83 64 75 65 / 20 20 20 10
FPR 83 65 76 65 / 20 50 50 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
FLZ041-044>046-053-144-247-547.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
FLZ141-347-447-647-747.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY
FOR FLZ141-347-447-647-747.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR
FLZ154-159-164.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
FLZ154-159-164.
WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
FLZ254-259-264.
AM...GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ550-570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SUNDAY TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ550-552-570-572.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ552-572.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
AMZ555-575.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
AMZ555-575.
DISCUSSION...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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