566
FXUS62 KMLB 290514
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
114 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
- A QUICK-MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BRING STRONG, GUSTY WINDS,
HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS, AND
INCREASING SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH SUNDAY.
- A WIND ADVISORY CONTINUES ACROSS MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
TONIGHT FOR WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40-45 MPH. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG THE COAST.
- HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST DUE TO THE RAPIDLY INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS. ENTERING
THE OCEAN AS EITHER A SWIMMER OR A MARINER IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED THIS WEEKEND!
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 837 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA. MESOANALYSIS
PLACES WEAK LOW PRESSURE VERY CLOSE TO THE BREVARD COASTLINE. THIS
FEATURE SITS ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT IS SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTHWARD.
THE TREND TODAY HAS DEFINITELY BEEN SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF
THIS FRONT, WHICH HAS LIMITED THE WIND/COASTAL IMPACTS FOR THE
TREASURE COAST THUS FAR. HOWEVER, WE STILL EXPECT THIS FRONT TO
SETTLE SOUTH OF THE DISTRICT OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THESE WINDS ARE
DRIVEN BY A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IN ITS WAKE, COURTESY OF
CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OUTER BANKS OF NC.
THEREFORE, NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED TO THE ONGOING LIST OF HAZARDS.
WIND GUSTS FROM 30-40 MPH ARE LIKELY TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY AT THE
COAST WHERE PEAK GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH REMAIN AT A 20-30%
POSSIBILITY. DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING
FROM CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD, WITH HIGH SURF SPREADING SOUTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WINDS INCREASE.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT... CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ALLOWED A SEA BREEZE
TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, INITIATING ISOLATED STORMS ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST AND NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. DESPITE GENERALLY
QUIET CONDITIONS EARLY TODAY, A COLD FRONT HAS QUICKLY MOVED
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ALREADY. A SURGE OF GUSTY NORTH WIND IS LAGGING BEHIND
THE IMMEDIATE FRONT AND AHEAD OF A DECK OF BUILDING LOW STRATUS.
WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST FLORIDA TODAY WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA (EXCLUDING OKEECHOBEE),
CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST EAST OF I-95 INTO SUNDAY. AS NORTHEAST
WINDS INCREASE AND GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO TONIGHT, ROUNDS OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ARE FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH HEATING AND SURFACE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS HAS ALLOWED FOR
A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS AFTERNOON, THE
OVERALL THREAT FOR STORMS LOOKS TO REMAIN ISOLATED. REGARDLESS,
QUICK MOVING SHOWERS WILL STILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.
RAPIDLY DETERIORATING BEACH CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS WINDS
INCREASE, FIRST ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST. SEAS BUILDING TO 10-13 FT
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE ATLANTIC WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
TONIGHT WILL BEGIN TO PRODUCE LARGE BREAKING WAVES AND ROUGH SURF AT
AREA BEACHES, AND MINOR BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE. A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT.
SUNDAY... THE FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINED LOCALLY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA AND MID ATLANTIC COAST. EAST WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY TO WINDY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, AND A WIND ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL AREAS EAST OF I-95 THROUGH 4PM SUNDAY. A
PERIOD OF HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS ALSO CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY, AND
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT WITH LARGE BREAKING WAVES OF
7 TO 12 FT WITHIN THE SURF ZONE. THIS COULD RESULT IN MINOR BEACH
EROSION AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE. ROUGH SURF AND A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT, AND ENTERING THE
OCEAN IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE, GREATEST SOUTH OF THE
CAPE IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT. LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND OVERCAST
CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN LIMITED TO THE LOW TO MID 70S. ROUNDS OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS ARE FORECAST WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE (40-50%) SOUTH OF A LINE FROM MELBOURNE TO LAKE
KISSIMMEE. INSTABILITY AND SURFACE FORCING REMAINS LIMITED AND
LIGHTNING IS GENERALLY NOT EXPECTED. QUICK MOVING SHOWERS SHOULD
LIMIT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS WITH NEW DAY PRECIP TOTALS LARGELY LESS
THAN 0.20". ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (20-40%) LOOK TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE TREASURE COAST AND IN VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S,
REMAINING SLIGHTLY HIGHER ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST IN ONSHORE
FLOW.
MONDAY-FRIDAY (MODIFIED PREVIOUS)... THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
ANTICIPATED TO WASH OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE RIDGE
AXIS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, CAUSING WINDS TO
REMAIN ONSHORE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
LOOSEN INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH WINDS FALLING TO AROUND 10 MPH.
ENHANCEMENTS EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE
STALLED BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, AND THE
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP ADVECT MOISTURE TOWARDS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN 30-
50% INTO MONDAY, FALLING TO 20-30% EACH AFTERNOON FROM TUESDAY
ONWARD AS THE RAIN BECOMES MORE DRIVEN BY THE SEA BREEZE. ISOLATED
STORM DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME. ANY SHOWER AND/OR STORM ACTIVITY THAT DOES
MANAGE TO DEVELOP IS ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH NEXT
WEEK, REACHING ABOVE NORMAL VALUES ONCE AGAIN NEARLY AREAWIDE BY
WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SAT MAR 28 2026
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS
AFTERNOON. RAPIDLY DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS
A SURGE OF GUSTY WINDS SPREADS THE LOCAL WATERS BEHIND THE FRONT. A
GALE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD WATERS AS
SUSTAINED NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE TO 30-34 KTS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. THE GALE WARNING
LATER EXPANDS TO INCLUDE THE TREASURE COAST WATERS AT 8PM. WINDS
SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT BEFORE STARTING A SLOW DIMINISHING TREND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. DANGEROUS SEAS BUILD 10-15 FEET THROUGH TONIGHT, AND
GALE WARNINGS TRANSITION TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY MORNING AS WINDS EASE AND SEAS BECOME SLOW TO SUBSIDE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ROUNDS OF SCATTERED ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
GENERALLY POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COVERAGE WARNING
AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AS
WINDS HAVE VEERED AROUND TO ONSHORE (040-070) WITH SUSTAINED
SPEEDS 13-20 KTS AND FREQUENTLY GUSTY, 25-35 KTS. STRONGEST
(ONSHORE-MOVING) CONVECTION ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST WITH QUICK-
HITTING SHOWERY PRECIP NORTHWARD ACROSS ECFL. OCCASIONAL IFR WITH
CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING, OTHERWISE GENERALLY MVFR WITH
POCKETS OF LOW VFR.
EXPECT ENE/E WINDS TO REMAIN BREEZY/GUSTY, WITH GUSTS SLIPPING ONLY
SLIGHTLY TO 20-30 KTS. BEGINNING DAYLIGHT HOURS WITH PREVAILING MVFR
FOR MOST, WITH HOPES OF LIFTING INTO A LOW VFR AT TIMES, BUT STILL
GENERALLY BKN-OVC CIGS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 73 63 78 64 / 20 20 50 10
MCO 76 65 80 66 / 30 20 60 10
MLB 76 67 79 67 / 50 30 60 20
VRB 77 66 79 67 / 60 40 60 20
LEE 77 64 82 65 / 20 10 60 10
SFB 76 64 80 65 / 20 20 60 10
ORL 77 65 80 66 / 30 20 60 10
FPR 77 65 79 66 / 60 40 60 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR FLZ041-
044>046-053-144-247-254-259-264-547.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ141-154-159-
164-347-447-647-747.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR FLZ141-154-159-164-
347-447-647-747.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ550-552-570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR AMZ550-552-570-572.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ555-575.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 2 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR AMZ555-575.
UPDATE...HEIL
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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