088
FXUS62 KMLB 291041
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
641 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
- A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST EAST OF I-95
FOR WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
- HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS PERSIST AS A
RESULT OF THE STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS. ENTERING THE OCEAN AS
EITHER A SWIMMER OR A MARINER IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED!
- SCATTERED SHOWER AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY AND MONDAY, BECOMING MORE ISOLATED
AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH
TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL HELP PUSH THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
THE AREA FURTHER SOUTH, WITH THE BOUNDARY ANTICIPATED TO STALL
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS A RESULT OF BEING WEDGED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, CAUSING EASTERLY WINDS TO REMAIN
BREEZY TO WINDY AND GUSTY AREAWIDE TODAY. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST EAST OF I-95 THROUGH 4 PM FOR WINDS OF
20 TO 30 MPH AND OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THESE STRONG ONSHORE
WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT BUILDING SEAS ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS, LEADING TO PERSISTENT POOR TO HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS AT ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES. ROUGH SURF AND A
HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ARE ANTICIPATED ALONG WITH BREAKING
WAVES OF 6 TO 11 FEET. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
ENTERING THE SURF IS NOT ADVISED.
BETWEEN THE LINGERING PLUME OF MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW, MOISTURE WILL BE PLENTIFUL
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ONSHORE-
MOVING SHOWERS ARE FORECAST AREAWIDE, BUT THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
ARE FOCUSED ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST COUNTIES AND NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE, WHICH IS WHERE PWATS ARE FORECAST TO BE HIGHEST
(1.4-1.6"). WHILE INSTABILITY GENERALLY LOOKS POOR ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY, ANY DAYTIME HEATING MAY PROVIDE JUST ENOUGH
ENERGY FOR SOME ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IN COMBINATION WITH
THE ONSHORE FLOW. PRIMARY STORM THREATS WITH ANY ACTIVITY THAT
DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP WOULD BE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH. CONFIDENCE IN STORM DEVELOPMENT REMAINS LOW. SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES FOCUSED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST TONIGHT.
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE, COOLER AIR HAS FILTERED IN
FROM THE NORTH. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE LOW TO MID 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN RELATIVELY UNCHANGED,
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S AREAWIDE.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...THE STALLED BOUNDARY GRADUALLY WASHES OUT
THROUGH EARLY WEEK, WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINING GENERALLY JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
GEORGIA, CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED TO SLACKEN, WITH
WINDS FINALLY SUBSIDING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOCAL
ENHANCEMENT EACH AFTERNOON CAUSED BY THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS
FORECAST, WITH WIND SPEEDS REACHING 15 MPH AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. WHILE THE WINDS WILL BE WEAKER, IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT POOR TO HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST
DUE TO LINGERING SWELLS AND WAVE HEIGHTS. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
WILL CONTINUE AT THE TREASURE COAST BEACHES THROUGH 4 PM ON
MONDAY, AND THE HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS ANTICIPATED TO
PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE TOWARDS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH ONSHORE SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE. RAIN CHANCES OF 40-60% ARE FORECAST ON
MONDAY, FALLING TO 30-50% ON TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS IS FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY THE COMBINATION OF
ONSHORE FLOW AND THE PROGRESSION INLAND OF THE SEA BREEZE.
ISOLATED STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ON MONDAY SO LEFT IN A LOW
CHANCE (20%) WITHIN THE FORECAST. CONFIDENCE WANES INTO TUESDAY,
SO HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION OF IT WITHIN THE FORECAST FOR NOW BUT
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF IT IS EVENTUALLY ADDED IN DURING A
FUTURE FORECAST PACKAGE. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
INTO THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH DAY.
TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY WEEK,
WITH HIGHS REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN THE AFTERNOONS.
LOWS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN SITUATED
ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD, WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS STAYING JUST NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL
KEEP EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW LOCALLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
AND MOVE INLAND, WITH DIURNALLY-DRIVEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN BETWEEN 20-30%
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOCUSED ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ACTIVITY IS
ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH EACH EVENING, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
THE WARMING TREND, REACHING ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK NEARLY AREAWIDE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 315 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WILL REMAIN WEDGED BETWEEN A
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A STALLED BOUNDARY
TO THE SOUTH, RESULTING IN PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS AND GUSTY
CONDITIONS. EASTERLY WINDS REACH 20 TO 30 KNOTS TODAY, WITH
OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT GALE- FORCE GUSTS ANTICIPATED. A GALE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING, TRANSITIONING TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LATE THIS
MORNING AS WINDS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. THESE STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL RESULT IN SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS. WINDS SUBSIDE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS BY MONDAY, BUT SEAS WILL
BE SLOWER TO RESPOND. SEAS REMAIN ABOVE 7 FEET ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT, AND ADDITIONAL
EXTENSIONS OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR THROUGH MOST OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD DUE TO PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.
PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, AND ISOLATED STORMS CANNOT BE FULLY RULED
OUT. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE TO 10-30% FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT SUN MAR 29 2026
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE WITH CURRENT ONSHORE SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS 10-20 KTS AND FREQUENTLY GUSTY, 15-30 KTS. SCATTERED,
ONSHORE-MOVING, CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS
AND GUSTY WINDS. AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORM THREAT WILL EXIST,
GREATEST CHANCES NEAR MLB SOUTHWARD. BRIEF IFR WITH CONVECTION,
OTHERWISE GENERALLY MVFR WITH POCKETS OF LOW VFR DURING THE DAY
WITH COVERAGE MAINLY BKN-OVC INTO TONIGHT. EXPECT ENE/E WINDS TO
REMAIN BREEZY/GUSTY WITH A GRADUAL DIMINISHING OF SPEEDS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT OVER THE INTERIOR, BUT STILL REMAINING
ELEVATED ALONG THE COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 73 63 78 64 / 20 20 50 10
MCO 76 65 80 66 / 30 20 60 10
MLB 76 67 79 67 / 50 30 60 20
VRB 77 66 79 67 / 60 40 60 20
LEE 77 64 82 65 / 20 10 60 10
SFB 76 64 80 65 / 20 20 60 10
ORL 77 65 80 66 / 30 20 60 10
FPR 77 65 79 66 / 60 40 60 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ141-154-159-
164-347-447-647-747.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR FLZ141-347-447-647-
747.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR FLZ154-159-164.
AM...GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ550-552-570-572.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ552-570-572.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ555-575.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 AM EDT TUESDAY
FOR AMZ555-575.
DISCUSSION...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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