892
FXUS62 KMLB 301044
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
644 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
- HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA COAST IN THE FORM OF ROUGH SURF, A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS, AND BREAKING WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET. ENTERING THE OCEAN
IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED!
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD AS ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS SEAS ABOVE CAUTIONARY AND
ADVISORY CRITERIA.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...A STALLED BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND THE BAHAMAS WILL CONTINUE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD, EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATING ENTIRELY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING
SITUATED WELL NORTH OF FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS WILL MAINTAIN
PREDOMINANTLY ONSHORE FLOW LOCALLY TODAY AND TONIGHT, WITH WIND
SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH FORECAST AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. GUSTS TO 25 MPH, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST, WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW COUPLED
WITH ELEVATED WAVE HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED HAZARDOUS BEACH
CONDITIONS. ROUGH SURF, A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS, AND BREAKING
WAVES OF 5 TO 7 FEET ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
BEACHES. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE TREASURE
COAST BEACHES TODAY, WHERE BREAKING WAVES ARE FORECAST TO BE
HIGHEST. ENTERING THE OCEAN IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED!
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE STALLED BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RESULT IN PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WHICH WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON. THE
MOISTURE AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO FAVOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT, WITH ACTIVITY MOVING INLAND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND INCREASING IN COVERAGE (30-40%). ISOLATED STORMS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW (20%). ANY STORMS THAT
DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING OCCASIONAL
CLOUD-TO- GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH, AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO DIMINISH INTO
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, THOUGH ONGOING ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
TUESDAY-SUNDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE PREDOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN NORTH OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS WEEK,
LOCALLY ENHANCED EACH AFTERNOON BY THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON AND CAUSING WIND SPEEDS TO REACH UP TO 15 MPH AT TIMES.
THIS PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP KEEP PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE
PENINSULA IN THE 1.3-1.6" RANGE, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE WILL ASSIST IN
PUSHING ACTIVITY INLAND, WITH RAIN CHANCES GENERALLY RANGING FROM
20-40% EACH DAY. ISOLATED STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EACH
AFTERNOON WITH THIS ACTIVITY, BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW BETWEEN
20-30%. ANY STORMS THAT DO MANAGE TO DEVELOP MAY BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE INTO THE LATE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, THOUGH ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS MAY PERSIST EACH NIGHT. AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS
WEEK, REACHING ABOVE-NORMAL VALUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY
THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY UNCHANGED,
STAYING IN THE 60S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. WHILE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS FORECAST TO
LOOSEN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL ALLOW WINDS TO SUBSIDE TO 15
TO 20 KNOTS OUT OF THE EAST, SEAS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 6 TO 9 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
ACROSS ALL LEGS OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH 2 PM. SEAS
WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY, WITH SEAS FORECAST TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA (7
FEET) TUESDAY NIGHT. ONSHORE WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS GENERALLY
BETWEEN 4 TO 6 FEET THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK, WITH A RETURN
OF HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED LATE THIS WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. ONSHORE WINDS PERSIST, RANGING FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS
THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE WATERS, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS EACH DAY. ISOLATED STORMS
ALSO CANNOT BE RULED OUT, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS LOW.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
MODERATE ONSHORE (ERLY) FLOW 10-15 KTS OVER THE INTERIOR AND 15-20
KTS ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS (HIGHER GUSTS FOR ALL -
STRONGEST ALONG THE COAST). GENERALLY LOW VFR (OCNL MVFR) CIGS, BUT
BRIEF MVFR/IFR IN SCT SHOWERY PRECIP (ISOLD LIGHTNING), WITH MODEST
MOISTURE IN PLACE. HAVE VCSH WORDING IN PLACE AND WILL UTILIZE TEMPO
GROUPS AS NECESSARY. WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 5 KTS INTERIOR AND
NEAR 10-15 KTS AT THE COAST (HIGHER GUSTS) LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 78 64 80 64 / 20 10 30 10
MCO 81 65 82 65 / 30 0 40 0
MLB 79 67 80 67 / 30 10 40 10
VRB 79 66 80 66 / 30 10 40 10
LEE 82 64 85 64 / 30 0 30 0
SFB 81 64 82 64 / 30 10 30 10
ORL 81 65 82 65 / 30 0 40 0
FPR 79 65 80 65 / 40 10 40 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR FLZ154-159-
164.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ555-570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ572-575.
DISCUSSION...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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