563
FXUS62 KMLB 302351
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
751 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF CONTINUE AT AREA
BEACHES; ENTERING THE WATER IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED!
- HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS LINGER THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF POOR CONDITIONS OFFSHORE AND A RETURN TO
HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY THIS WEEK, A STORM OR TWO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY ONWARD
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
NOW-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON. EMBEDDED IN THE EASTERLY FLOW ARE LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS, SOME OF WHICH ARE NOW PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
SHOWERS OVER EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA. GOES-DERIVED PW ARE AROUND 1.25-
1.4" FROM NORTH TO SOUTH, RESPECTIVELY. MOISTURE IS LARGELY
CONCENTRATED BETWEEN 900-850MB, AND INSTABILITY IS LACKING OVERALL.
WHERE THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER MUCAPE AND MOISTURE CONTENT EXISTS SOUTH
OF KISSIMMEE/MELBOURNE, WE MAINTAIN A LOW (20%) CHANCE OF
LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MOST ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO
REMAIN LIGHTNING-FREE AS IT DRIFTS WEST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. OVERALL RAIN AMOUNTS STAY UNDER 0.10" FOR MOST, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WHERE REPEATED SHOWERS
OCCUR. COMPARABLY DRIER CONDITIONS TAKE OVER LATER IN THE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES SETTLE INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S.
GUSTY WINDS FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY ARE FORECAST TO SLOW TO AROUND
10-15 MPH AT THE COAST (LESS THAN 10 MPH INLAND).
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE UNTIL 4 PM FROM SEBASTIAN
INLET TO JUPITER INLET (INDIAN RIVER, ST. LUCIE, AND MARTIN COUNTY
BEACHES). LARGE BREAKING WAVES WILL VERY SLOWLY BEGIN TO DECREASE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BUT A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. ENTERING THE WATER IS
STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
TUESDAY-SUNDAY (MODIFIED)...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN IS
ANTICIPATED THIS WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE STAYS PUT OVER THE NORTH-
CENTRAL ATLANTIC. 500MB RIDGING BREAKS DOWN MINIMALLY LATER IN THE
WEEK AS A DEGENERATING TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST, LOCALLY ENHANCED EACH AFTERNOON BY THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE, CAUSING WIND SPEEDS TO REACH 15 TO 20 MPH AT
TIMES (GUSTS 25 TO 30 MPH). THIS PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW WILL
HELP KEEP PWAT VALUES ACROSS THE PENINSULA IN THE 1.3-1.6" RANGE,
WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON. AS THE
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND, IT WILL TAKE RAIN CHANCES
WITH IT, GENERALLY RANGING FROM 20-40% EACH DAY. AN ISOLATED STORM
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE WEEK, BUT CHANCES
REMAIN LOW (BETWEEN 20-30%). SHOWER OR STORM ACTIVITY WILL WANE
INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, THOUGH ISOLATED
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS MAY PERSIST EACH
NIGHT. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW A GRADUAL WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE WEEK, REACHING ABOVE-NORMAL VALUES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR BY THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
UNCHANGED, STAYING IN THE 60S.
WHILE LOW SHOWER CHANCES LOOK TO CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND, IT IS WORTH
NOTING THAT THERE ARE SIZABLE DIFFERENCES IN MODEL OUTPUT BEYOND
FRIDAY. SOME SOLUTIONS ARE WETTER ALONG THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST AND SOME ARE DRIER (ISOLATED SHOWERS ONLY). GUIDANCE DOES HINT
AT A FRONT APPROACHING NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK,
BRINGING ADDITIONAL RAIN CHANCES, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE
ANY SPECIFICS AT THIS TIME.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 257 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
POOR TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
FROM THIS EVENING INTO TUESDAY. WHILE GRADUALLY IMPROVING WINDS AND
SEAS ARE FORECAST, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
MARINE LEGS (EXCEPT THE NEARSHORE VOLUSIA WATERS, WHERE SMALL CRAFT
SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION). SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET AND EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-20 KT ARE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
A PERIOD OF POOR CONDITIONS TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY
THURSDAY, ONSHORE FLOW FRESHENS AGAIN, BRINGING 15-20+ KT WINDS AND
5-7 FT SEAS (OCCASIONALLY 8 FT OFFSHORE). SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
POSSIBLE AGAIN LATER IN THE WEEK AS A RESULT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES ALL WEEK WITH A LOW
CHANCE (20-30%) OF A LIGHTNING STORMS, PARTICULARLY IN THE GULF
STREAM EACH NIGHT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT MON MAR 30 2026
MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EASTERLY (ONSHORE) FLOW WILL
DECREASE A BIT THIS EVE AND OVERNIGHT, ESP THE GUSTINESS. ISOLATED
SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ONTO THE COAST BUT SHOULD HAVE
INCREASING DIFFICULTY REACHING THE INTERIOR TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR
CONDS POSS MAINLY IN PASSING SHRA AT COASTAL TERMINALS. NBM SHOWS
A 40% CHANCE FOR MVFR VSBYS (FOG) AT DAB RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE
WHERE WINDS BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE. ON TUE, E/SE WINDS PICK UP
BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE WITH GUSTS 20-22KTS VRB-SUA IN THE
AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 63 80 63 81 / 10 10 0 20
MCO 65 83 65 83 / 10 20 0 20
MLB 67 80 66 81 / 20 20 10 20
VRB 66 81 66 81 / 20 20 10 20
LEE 63 84 64 84 / 0 20 0 20
SFB 64 83 64 84 / 10 20 0 20
ORL 65 83 65 84 / 10 20 0 20
FPR 65 81 64 81 / 20 20 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ555-570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ572-575.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...KELLY
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