842
FXUS62 KMLB 311039
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
639 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT ALL EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA BEACHES. ENTERING THE SURF IS NOT ADVISED!
- POOR BOATING CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK, WITH A RETURN OF HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS FORECAST INTO THURSDAY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT, ESPECIALLY FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE
ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY, REMAINING THE PREDOMINANT
FEATURE NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN
JUST NORTH OF THE STATE, RESULTING IN PERSISTENT EASTERLY WINDS.
WIND SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH GUSTS UP TO 25
MPH POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST WHILE THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
FORECAST WITHIN THE MOIST, ONSHORE FLOW REGIME PRESENT ACROSS THE
PENINSULA, AND THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVING INLAND MAY PROMPT
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DOES DEVELOP ACROSS THE PENINSULA IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH INTO THE EARLY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, ONGOING
ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AT THIS TIME, THE
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT, SO
HAVE LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF IT WITHIN THE FORECAST TODAY.
THE MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA WILL KEEP SKIES PARTLY
CLOUDY, WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVERAGE ANTICIPATED TO
OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. LESS CLOUD COVERAGE WILL ALLOW
FOR GREATER HEATING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST AND
THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. TONIGHT, TEMPERATURES FALL
INTO THE 60S.
WHILE THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN OBJECTIVELY NICE TODAY AND
CONDITIONS WOULD LOOK FAVORABLE FOR A BEACH DAY, THE PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW AND LINGERING SWELLS WILL PRODUCE A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY AT ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES. RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS ARE STRONGLY DISCOURAGED FROM ENTERING THE OCEAN.
WEDNESDAY-MONDAY...A SIMILAR PATTERN TO TODAY IS ANTICIPATED TO
CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STAYING NORTH OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOCALLY, ONSHORE FLOW WILL PERSIST, LEADING
TO CONTINUED MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THROUGH LATE WEEK. THE ONSHORE FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT, WITH FURTHER AID PROVIDED BY THE DEVELOPMENT
OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZE WILL
HELP PUSH ACTIVITY FARTHER INLAND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS, WITH ACTIVITY WANING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
ACROSS THE PENINSULA. ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS, AND A STRAY
SHOWER OR TWO MAY BE ABLE TO MAKE IT ONSHORE. RAIN CHANCES OF
20-30% ARE FORECAST MOST AFTERNOONS, WITH A 40-50% CHANCE ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. STORM DEVELOPMENT LOOKS TO REMAIN GENERALLY
UNFAVORABLE INTO WEDNESDAY, BUT GREATER INSTABILITY STARTING ON
THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO A LOW CHANCE (20%) OF STORM DEVELOPMENT EACH
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THIS DOES REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME. EARLY
NEXT WEEK, A COLD FRONT LOOKS TO APPROACH THE FLORIDA PENINSULA,
WITH INCREASING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES LIKELY ALONG WITH IT.
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS SOME DISCREPANCY RELATIVE TO JUST HOW MUCH
MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, RESULTING IN
VARYING RAIN CHANCES. ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
ARE LIKELY AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER AGREEMENT. LOOKING AT
TEMPERATURES, HIGHS AND LOWS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS ANTICIPATED TO GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
POOR BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS AS ONSHORE FLOW HELPS MAINTAIN 4 TO 6 FOOT SEAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EASTERLY FLOW FRESHENS TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS ON
THURSDAY, CAUSING SEAS TO BUILD ONCE AGAIN TO 5 TO 8 FEET. THE
HIGHEST SEAS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN LATE THIS WEEK.
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN POOR TO HAZARDOUS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS EACH DAY DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW AND PLENTIFUL
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. ONGOING ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE GULF
STREAM. THERE IS ALSO A LOW CHANCE (20-30%) FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 640 AM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
CONTINUED MAINLY VFR, WITH BRIEF MVFR INVOF ONSHORE-MOVING LIGHT
SHOWERS. CONTINUE TO HANDLE THIS WITH "VICINITY" WORDING FOR
SPACE/TREASURE COAST TAF SITES THIS MORNING. WILL CONSIDER TEMPO
GROUPS AS APPROPRIATE. ERLY FLOW PERSISTS INCREASING TO 8-12 KTS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND 10-15 KTS AT THE COAST WITH HIGHER GUSTS (20-
22 KTS) HERE. WILL MONITOR FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG AT DAB NEAR
SUNRISE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 80 63 80 64 / 10 10 10 10
MCO 83 65 82 66 / 20 10 20 10
MLB 80 66 80 68 / 20 10 10 20
VRB 80 65 81 67 / 20 20 20 30
LEE 85 63 84 64 / 20 10 10 0
SFB 84 63 84 65 / 20 10 10 10
ORL 84 65 84 66 / 20 10 10 10
FPR 80 64 81 65 / 20 20 20 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ572-575.
DISCUSSION...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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