033
FXUS62 KMLB 312354
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
754 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES; ENTERING
THE WATER IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
- POOR BOATING CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEK, WITH A RETURN TO HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS
ACROSS ACROSS A PORTION OF THE WATERS BY THURSDAY.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS EACH DAY WITH ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY THURSDAY AND SUNDAY. A HIGHER CHANCE FOR
RAIN ARRIVES WITH A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
NOW-TONIGHT...FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ARE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON,
MOVING WEST ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. TEMPERATURES HAVE REACHED
THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH BREEZY TO
OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WINDS (20 TO 25 MPH), PARTICULARLY ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST. THE LATEST HI-RES GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MOST OF US
SHOULD STAY DRY FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY, SO HAVE OPTED TO KEEP
RAIN CHANCES OUT OF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THAT SAID, A BRIEF
SPRINKLE OR LIGHT SHOWER CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ACROSS THE FAR
INTERIOR AS THE EAST COAST BREEZE MOVES INLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL FALL THIS EVENING INTO THE
70S, SETTLING INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT. THERE IS VERY LOW CONFIDENCE
IN PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO LAKE GEORGE EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING, MAINLY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE.
WEDNESDAY-TUESDAY...A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT PATTERN WILL LAST
THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
KEEPS OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH, REINFORCING
ONSHORE, EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. PW VALUES
GENERALLY HOVER BETWEEN 1.2" AND 1.4" DURING THIS TIME, THOUGH
MOISTURE DOES INCREASE NOTABLY ON THURSDAY AND AGAIN AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ON MONDAY. SIMILAR TO TODAY, ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY (15-20% CHANCE) WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
TO MID 80S. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REVEAL A BIT OF 850MB DRYING IN THE
AFTERNOON, LIKELY LIMITING SHOWER COVERAGE OVERALL. IN CONTRAST, A
PUSH OF GREATER MOISTURE ARRIVES FROM THE ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY.
THIS, COMBINED WITH INCREASED SURFACE HEATING AND INSTABILITY,
BOOSTS RAIN AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES TO 45-55% (OR
HIGHER). CLOUDS ARE ALSO GOING TO BE ON THE INCREASE THURSDAY, AND
THOSE COULD PLAY A ROLE IN HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION OCCURS. WHILE
QPF REMAINS ON THE LIGHT SIDE, LOCALLY HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS OF 0.25-
0.50" CANNOT BE RULED OUT WHERE A STORM OCCURS THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. OUTSIDE OF ANY RAIN OR STORMS, BREEZY CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 20-30 MPH (HIGHEST ALONG THE
COAST).
H5 RIDGING BRIEFLY EXPANDS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FRIDAY. MODELS
SUGGEST ANOTHER WAVE OF BRIEFLY DRIER AIR REACHING ECFL ON FRIDAY,
KEEPING RAIN CHANCES LOWER (15-25%). BREEZY TO GUSTY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY (20-30 MPH GUSTS AT TIMES), FOLLOWED BY
A SOMEWHAT WEAKER WIND FIELD SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS. BETTER MOISTURE RETURN ON SATURDAY SUGGESTS WE COULD SEE A
FEW MORE SHOWERS, PARTICULARLY ORLANDO SOUTHWARD. LATER IN THE
WEEKEND, MODELS ARE LESS CLEAR CUT IN TERMS OF MOISTURE RETURN. SOME
GUIDANCE ELEVATES PW TO 1.6"+ ALONG THE COAST WHERE OTHERS MAINTAIN
STATUS QUO VALUES IN THE LOWER 1" RANGE. THAT SAID, THE LATEST NBM
LEANS TOWARD MORE ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE, WHEREAS A GFS-
LEANING SOLUTION WOULD NUDGE RAIN CHANCES UPWARD. FOR NOW, WE WILL
CARRY A LOWER 15-30% RAIN CHANCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE CAVEAT
THAT THESE VALUES COULD CLIMB HIGHER IN FUTURE UPDATES. PARTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS ALL WEEKEND WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO
HEAT THINGS UP INTO THE MID 80S FOR MOST (LOW 80S BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE).
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES AND A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORMS OVER NORTH
FLORIDA. EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN A BIT
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND REMAIN OVER OR NEAR CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR LONG
ENOUGH TO HELP ENHANCE RAIN CHANCES. NUANCES IN THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE H5 SHORTWAVE LEAD TO MORE QUESTIONS ABOUT WHERE THE
MOST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH SOME ENSEMBLE QPF LEANING TOWARD
HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS MONDAY P.M. AND OTHERS FAVORING TUESDAY P.M.
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONALLY, A SMATTERING OF GUIDANCE TRIES
TO SPIN UP A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (OR TWO) ALONG THE FRONT,
MOVING OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. DUE TO
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN, ALONG WITH 1.6-1.7+" PW
PRESENT, THE CHANCE FOR RAIN IS TRENDING UP EARLY NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AS
THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH FROM TUESDAY ONWARD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THIS EVENING IN THE GULF STREAM,
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL. BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
IMPROVING OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH POOR TO HAZARDOUS SEAS
RETURNING LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES
AROUND 10-18 KT WITH SEAS 4-5 FT (6 FT OCCASIONALLY OFFSHORE).
SEAS BUILD ON THURSDAY AS WINDS FRESHEN AGAIN, REACHING 5-7 FT (8
FT WELL OFFSHORE). POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING LINGERS LATE WEEK
INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY BEYOND 20NM. ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY, WITH THE
HIGHER CHANCE FOR RAIN AND ISOLATED STORMS ON THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 750 PM EDT TUE MAR 31 2026
MOSTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDS PREVAILING THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS DECREASING TO 5 KNOTS OVERNIGHT
THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN WED AFT 14Z, SUSTAINED 10-15 KNOTS WITH
GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS MLB-SUA.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 63 80 65 82 / 10 20 10 60
MCO 64 82 65 84 / 10 20 10 60
MLB 66 80 67 81 / 10 20 30 50
VRB 64 81 66 82 / 10 20 30 50
LEE 62 84 64 85 / 0 20 0 60
SFB 62 84 65 84 / 10 20 10 60
ORL 64 84 65 84 / 10 20 10 60
FPR 64 81 65 82 / 10 20 30 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...KELLY
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