674
FNUS72 KMLB 010745
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR SFWMD - EAST SHORE...SFWMD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
345 AM EDT WED APR 1 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 1000 EDT ON APRIL 01.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
EAST WINDS ARE FORECAST NEAR THE BURN SITE TODAY WITH WIND SPEEDS
REACHING AROUND 10 MPH. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL SUPPORT A LOW
CHANCE (20%) FOR SHOWERS, WITH THE BEST TIMING FAVORED AFTER 1 PM.
MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW 50S, WITH SMOKE
DISPERSION VALUES ANTICIPATED TO BE VERY GOOD.
THURSDAY, INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN RAIN AND STORM CHANCES. BASED OFF OF CURRENT GUIDANCE,
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BEGIN TO REACH THE BURN SITE AS EARLY AS 10
AM ON THURSDAY, WITH ACTIVITY PERSISTING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MINIMUM RH
VALUES INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO THE UPPER 50S, WITH SMOKE DISPERSION
VALUES BECOMING EXCELLENT AS TRANSPORT WINDS INCREASE. CONTROL
CONCERNS WILL INCREASE INTO THURSDAY.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (40-50 PERCENT). SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......20 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 82.
MIN HUMIDITY........53 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 6 TO 12 MPH.
MIXING HEIGHT.......5300 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 12 TO 15 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....50 INCREASING TO 69 EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON,
THEN DECREASING TO 56 LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
LVORI...............1.
TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........38 34 38 53 53 50 52 41
WEATHER COV..... SCH
WEATHER TYPE.... RW
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 10 10 20 10 10 10
TEMP............74 78 79 80 80 80 81 80
RH..............69 60 56 54 54 56 53 54
20 FT WIND DIR..E E E E E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..6 7 9 10 10 12 12 12
20 FT WIND GUST.10 14 16 18 20 21 21 21
MIX HGT (KFT)...3.5 4.4 5.3 5.0 4.1 4.3 4.0 4.2
TRANSP WIND DIR.E E E E E E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.12 12 12 13 13 14 15 15
DISPERSION IDX..50 59 69 71 62 58 53 57
LVORI...........2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT).
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 61.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 12 MPH IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT, THEN BECOMING EAST
AROUND 5 MPH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2700 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL EARLY IN
THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 16 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....58 DECREASING TO 4.
LVORI...............1 INCREASING TO 8.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........27 22 15 17 21 18
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............80 71 68 65 64 63
RH..............54 73 84 93 93 97
20 FT WIND......E 12 E 9 E 7 E 6 E 3 E 3
20 FT WIND GUST.20 16 13 9 7 7
MIX HGT (FT)....3700 700 600 500 400 400
TRANSPORT WIND..E 16 E 14 E 13 E 10 E 9 E 9
DISPERSION IDX..58 9 6 5 4 4
LVORI...........1 3 4 6 7 8
THURSDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (35-45 PERCENT). CHANCE OF SHOWERS
EARLY IN THE MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHOWERS
LIKELY AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.
CHANCE OF PCPN......60 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 83.
MIN HUMIDITY........58 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........EAST WINDS 5 TO 13 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS
EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE
MORNING.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 4600 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....EAST 9 TO 18 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....4 INCREASING TO 90 LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN
DECREASING TO 46.
LVORI...............9 DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........20 30 32 49 62 63
WEATHER COV..... CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TSTM COV........ S CHC CHANCE CHANCE
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 30 30 30 60 60
TEMP............62 63 74 81 82 82
RH..............100 100 82 63 58 58
20 FT WIND......E 5 E 6 E 8 E 10 E 12 E 13
20 FT WIND GUST.8 10 15 18 21 21
MIX HGT (FT)....400 400 2500 4200 4600 4000
TRANSPORT WIND..E 9 E 10 E 18 E 18 SE 17 E 16
DISPERSION IDX..4 5 58 90 57 46
LVORI...........9 9 3 1 1 1
FORECASTER...TOLLEFSEN
REQUESTED BY...JIM BLUSH
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2608701.0/MLB
.DELDT 04/01/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL JBLUSH@SFWMD.GOV
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