861
FXUS62 KMLB 011821
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
221 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
- HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES; ENTERING
THE WATER IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE EACH DAY WITH ISOLATED
STORMS POSSIBLE, PARTICULARLY THURSDAY ONWARD. A HIGHER CHANCE
FOR RAIN ARRIVES WITH A COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- A RETURN OF POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS IS FORECAST
STARTING THURSDAY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
NOW-TONIGHT...ANOTHER AFTERNOON WITH ONSHORE FLOW IS UNDER WAY WITH
SOME CLOUDS AND INTERMITTENT, ISOLATED SHOWERS. SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT
WAS DISSIPATING AS IT REACHED THE COAST THIS MORNING IS NOW MOVING
MORE INLAND AS THE SEA BREEZE TREKS WESTWARD. GOES PW IMAGERY
INDICATES DRIER AIR OVER THE ATLANTIC, AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO REACH
OUR AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME OF THIS
DRIER AIR IMPINGING ON THE MORE MOIST 850-700MB LAYER. AS A RESULT,
WE MAINTAIN A 15-20% CHANCE OF SHOWERS MOVING INLAND THROUGH THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH LESSER ACTIVITY AT THE COAST. SOME OF
THAT DRIER AIR SHOULD START TO INHIBIT SHOWER DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN
THE EVENING. MUCH OF TONIGHT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN DRY, EVEN OVER
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE
60S FOR MOST AS EASTERLY FLOW PERSISTS.
THURSDAY-TUESDAY (MODIFIED)...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE OVERALL
PATTERN ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A CENTER OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED WELL NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES, LOCALLY ENHANCED EACH AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND, WITH CONDITIONS BECOMING GUSTY
AT TIMES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. MOISTURE INCREASES SOUTH TO
NORTH ON THURSDAY, RESULTING IN RAIN CHANCES INCREASING TO 30-50%
(60% WELL INLAND). THE CHANCE FOR LIGHTNING STORMS RETURNS THURSDAY,
TOO, AS INSTABILITY VALUES TICK UP. BY THIS WEEKEND, PW VALUES TREND
SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH RAIN CHANCES AROUND 20-35% FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE ONSHORE
FLOW AND EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 80S CLOSER TO THE COAST. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 60S.
RIDGING BREAKS DOWN EARLY MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. THERE ARE STILL A NUMBER OF DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS,
REGARDING TIMING OF THE FRONT, IF IT DOES OR DOES NOT MAKE A
COMPLETE PASSAGE THROUGH THE AREA, AND HOW MUCH MOISTURE LINGERS OVER
EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME GUIDANCE ALSO
POINTS TO A STRONGER H5 SHORTWAVE, COMPARED TO OTHER SOLUTIONS THAT
PROVIDE PROVIDE WEAKER SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION. IN GENERAL, RAIN
CHANCES DO INCREASE GRADUALLY MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF OUR AREA ON TUESDAY. THIS IS WHERE
THE HIGHEST PW VALUES REMAIN CONCENTRATED (1.5-1.7") FOR THE LONGEST
AMOUNT OF TIME. SINCE THIS IS STILL SEVERAL DAYS OUT, THERE WILL BE
TIMING AND RAIN CHANCE ADJUSTMENTS AS GUIDANCE COMES INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT. WINDS FINALLY BREAK FROM THE ONSHORE FLOW AND BECOME MORE
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT, TURNING NORTHEASTERLY BEHIND
THE FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL TREND COOLER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY,
RETURNING TO NEAR-NORMAL VALUES FOR EARLY APRIL. LOWS WILL ALSO
TREND COOLER, WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES FOCUSED NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR AND ACROSS RURAL PORTIONS OF OSCEOLA AND
OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
MOSTLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL LAST THROUGH THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT UNTIL EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS FRESHEN THURSDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS EAST-TO-WEST FLOW 12-20 KT INTO THE WEEKEND
BEFORE SLACKENING A BIT ON SUNDAY. POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS SEAS GRADUALLY
BUILD TO 5-6 FT NEARSHORE AND 7 FT OFFSHORE. THESE ELEVATED WAVE
HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT BRIEFLY WEAKENS WIND SPEEDS (AND THEREFORE, SEAS) ON SUNDAY.
SEAS FALL TO 3-5 FT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT ARRIVES MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY, PROMISING AN INCREASE IN
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS EARLY IN THE WEEK.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY WITH CHANCES
MAXIMIZED FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A LIGHTNING
STORM OR TWO BECOMES POSSIBLE THURSDAY ONWARD AS INSTABILITY OVER
THE LOCAL ATLANTIC SLOWLY INCREASES.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 132 PM EDT WED APR 1 2026
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING IN ALONG THE COAST AND PUSHING
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY, NO LIGHTNING STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED, BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A LIGHTNING STORM OR TWO MAY
DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED VCSH THROUGH 20/21Z
FOR ALL SITES EXCEPT DAB. NO TEMPOS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT THIS
TIME, BUT WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH INTO
THIS EVENING, WITH A SHOWER OR TWO REMAINING POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE ISN'T HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VC
WORDING THOUGH. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PICK BACK UP
ALONG THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING, WITH STORMS POSSIBLE LATE
MORNING. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN TRANSITION ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON (AROUND 18Z). ESE WINDS 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS 15-20 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING TO 8-12 KT BY MID-MORNING. ESE WINDS WILL THEN
INCREASE TO AROUND 15 KT ALONG THE COAST WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT BY
LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 64 81 67 82 / 10 30 10 20
MCO 64 83 68 85 / 0 40 10 30
MLB 67 81 69 81 / 10 40 10 20
VRB 66 81 68 82 / 20 40 20 20
LEE 63 85 67 86 / 0 40 10 30
SFB 63 84 67 85 / 0 40 10 20
ORL 64 83 68 85 / 0 40 10 20
FPR 65 81 67 82 / 20 30 20 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...WATSON
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