022
FXUS62 KMLB 030016
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
816 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
- THERE IS A CONTINUED HIGH RISK FOR NUMEROUS, LIFE-THREATENING
RIP CURRENTS AT ATLANTIC BEACHES OF CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. IT IS
STRONGLY ENCOURAGED TO REMAIN OUT OF THE ROUGH SURF.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH
THIS EVENING, MAINLY OVER THE INTERIOR, DISSIPATING AFTER
SUNSET. ISOLATED SHOWER AND STORM POTENTIAL CONTINUES INTO THE
WEEKEND.
- WARM INTO THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT REACHES FLORIDA BY
NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BRINGING INCREASING RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES AHEAD OF SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
NOW-TONIGHT...AS DEEPER MOISTURE WORKS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORMING THIS AFTERNOON. THERE HAVE BEEN JUST A
COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STRIKES AND SOME CLOUD PULSES HERE AND THERE,
BUT NOTHING PERSISTENT OR LONG-LIVED. WITH A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OF
20-25 MPH, THESE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS ARE PRODUCING UP TO 30 MPH
GUSTS AS THEY QUICKLY PASS OVER A LOCATION. OUTSIDE OF THE RAIN, IT
IS BREEZY TO GUSTY WITH WINDS AS HIGH AS 25 TO 30 MPH ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST. MESOANALYSIS REVEALS 1000-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE FROM
ORLANDO/CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD, AND CAMS SLOWLY EXPAND THIS
INSTABILITY NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AS
A DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE CARRIES SHOWERS TO THE WEST, A FEW OF THESE
COULD OCCASIONALLY STRENGTHEN TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH. HOWEVER, LAPSE RATES ARE ONE OF A NUMBER OF
LIMITING FACTORS, SO THE FORECAST MAINTAINS ONLY A LOW CHANCE (~30%)
OF LIGHTNING. A MAJORITY OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF AFTER
SUNSET; HOWEVER, WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE, A LINGERING
SHOWER OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS DECREASE INLAND AFTER
SUNSET AS WELL, REMAINING BREEZY TO GUSTY AT THE COAST (ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF THE CAPE). OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN MILD IN THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S.
FRIDAY-WEDNESDAY...MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY DRY OUT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, AT LEAST ABOVE 850-900MB. RIDGING STRENGTHENS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST U.S. AND FLORIDA PENINSULA LATE WEEK INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEKEND, FORCING DEEPENING H5 LOW PRESSURE AND A LONGWAVE
TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION.
LITTLE MOVEMENT IN THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PROLONG ONSHORE EAST-
SOUTHEAST FLOW, AT TIMES GUSTING 20-30 MPH THROUGH SATURDAY. LOWER
RAIN CHANCES RETURN TO THE FORECAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS TRENDING WARMER INTO THE MID/UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. AS A NOTE, NBME PROBABILITIES ARE LESS THAN 5-10% FOR
INTERIOR SITES REACHING THE 90-DEGREE MARK, AND RECORD HIGHS THIS
TIME OF YEAR ARE IN THE LOW/MID 90S.
BY SUNDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES, WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
STRETCHING ALL THE WAY SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO SHOW A BROAD, WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE BAHAMAS EVENTUALLY
PHASING INTO THE LARGER MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME EARLY IN THE WEEK.
THIS PLACES ECFL BETWEEN TWO LARGER SCALE FEATURES WHERE THE
GRADIENT IS RATHER WEAK. THE RESULT IS LIGHTER WINDS ON SUNDAY,
BECOMING BRIEFLY GUSTY BEHIND THE EAST COAST BREEZE. ANOTHER BATCH
OF GREATER MOISTURE MOVES ASHORE SUNDAY, RESULTING IN HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES. MUCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG AND -12C TO -13C H5 TEMPS COULD
SUPPORT OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES, THOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL AGAIN
REMAIN MODEST. QPF CALLS FOR GENERALLY 0.20" OR LESS OVER ECFL,
THOUGH A LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNT UP TO 0.40-0.50" CANNOT BE
DISCOUNTED.
WITH A COLD FRONT QUICKLY APPROACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA ON MONDAY
MORNING, WINDS ARE FORECAST TO VEER NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY. CLOUDS ARE
GOING TO BE ON THE INCREASE AS DEEPER MOISTURE ENVELOPES THE AREA
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. EVEN IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE, THERE REMAINS
DISAGREEMENT IN H5 HEIGHT FALLS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AND HOW
FAR SOUTH THE COLD FRONT ACTUALLY GETS BEFORE SLOWING OR STALLING
ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA. WITH GREATER MOISTURE, CONVERGENCE,
AND AN H5 PV INFLECTION MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TUESDAY, RAIN
CHANCES BECOME WIDESPREAD (60-80% OR GREATER). BETWEEN MONDAY AND
TUESDAY, IT APPEARS MODELS ARE AT LEAST IN AGREEMENT THAT TUESDAY
BRINGS THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. DAYTIME HEATING MONDAY MAY BOOST
MUCAPE LEVELS HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STORMS,
COMPARED TO TUESDAY WHEN ANY STORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE FOCUSED CLOSER
TO THE FRONT AND BECOME MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE. OVERALL, RAIN
BECOMES FOCUSED FARTHER SOUTH, ESPECIALLY MELBOURNE SOUTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY. DRIER AIR STARTS TO SPILL SOUTH MID TO LATE WEEK WITH
QUESTIONS AS TO "HOW DRY" AND "HOW FAR SOUTH" LINGERING.
EARLY WEEK TEMPS START WARM IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S MONDAY,
FALLING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL VALUES TUESDAY ONWARD.
OVERNIGHT LOWS COOL SLIGHTLY AS WELL, SETTLING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. BREEZY NORTHEAST FLOW DEVELOPS TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE COAST, AND BECOMES RATHER GUSTY EVERYWHERE ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COULD VERY WELL LEAD TO ANOTHER STRETCH OF
HAZARDOUS BEACH CONDITIONS AND ROUGH SURF BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 221 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
POOR BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS EAST-
SOUTHEAST WINDS FLUCTUATE 15-20 KT. SEAS REMAIN 4-6 FT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A WEAKENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY, BOATING
CONDITIONS MAY BECOME BRIEFLY FAVORABLE. THEN, A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND MAY STALL NEAR OR OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. WINDS VEER NORTHEASTERLY, FRESHENING MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AND GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER ROUND OF
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION BY
WEDNESDAY. SEAS GRADUALLY BUILD TO 7 FT MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY,
BUILDING FURTHER ON TUESDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH GREATER RAIN
CHANCES RETURNING SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES.
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL, PARTICULARLY NOW THROUGH
SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 755 PM EDT THU APR 2 2026
STARTING OFF WITH VCSH AT MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT DAB AS WELL AS
VCTS AT FPR/SUA FOR THE CONVECTIVE BAND PUSHING ONSHORE. E TO SE
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY, BECOMING GUSTY ALONG THE COAST
15-20 KNOTS GUSTING 25-29 KNOTS. MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF SHRA. LESS
COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA FORECAST ON FRIDAY WITH RAIN PROBS LESS THAN
25% AT MCO.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 67 82 66 83 / 20 20 0 10
MCO 68 84 67 86 / 20 20 0 10
MLB 69 81 69 81 / 20 10 10 10
VRB 68 82 68 82 / 20 10 10 20
LEE 67 85 66 88 / 20 30 0 20
SFB 67 85 66 86 / 20 20 0 10
ORL 67 85 67 86 / 20 20 0 10
FPR 67 82 67 82 / 20 10 10 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...KELLY
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