160
FXUS62 KMLB 032338
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
738 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
- THE HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA'S
ATLANTIC BEACHES SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE OCEAN.
- LOWER RAIN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND SATURDAY. BREEZY
CONDITIONS PERSIST WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.
- BY NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, HIGHER RAIN COVERAGE AND
INCREASINGLY STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST AS A FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. THE POTENTIAL FOR BEACH AND BOATING
IMPACTS HAS INCREASED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
REST OF TODAY-SATURDAY...A LITTLE DRIER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS,
OTHERWISE MORE OF THE SAME AS DEEP HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC EXTENDING OVER FLORIDA REMAINS IN CONTROL.
RIDGE AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH KEEPS ITS STATION NORTH OF THE
AREA, CONTINUING ONSHORE (EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY) FLOW THAT COULD
BECOME GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOONS FROM SEA BREEZE ENHANCEMENT,
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. A FEW BOUNDARIES HAVE MANAGED TO
SUPPORT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS, AND COUPLE LIGHTNING STORMS HAVE
MANAGED TO DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS OFF THE SPACE COAST
THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH COULD MOVE INLAND. COULD SEE SHOWERS AND A
STORM OR TWO PULL OFF THE SAME TRICK TOMORROW, BUT OTHERWISE DRY
CONDITIONS. ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE L-M80S, AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE M60S-70.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNSETTLED AS INCREASING
MOISTURE BRINGS BACK CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT EASTWARD AHEAD OF A TROUGH
SWINGING ACROSS THE EASTERN US, AND AN APPROACHING SURFACE FRONT.
BY MONDAY THE FRONT WILL HAVE OUTRUN ITS UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT,
WHICH REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA, CAUSING THE FRONT TO SLOW DOWN AS
IT SAGS INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS IS
WHERE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE, WITH THE ECM PUSHING A WEAKENING
FRONT FRONT THROUGH A BIT FASTER, TRANSITING CENTRAL FLORIDA
MONDAY NIGHT, WHILE THE GFS AND CMC SLOW A MORE ACTIVE FRONT TO A
CRAWL, POTENTIALLY STALLING NEAR OR OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
A SLUG OF MOISTURE (PWATS INCREASING TO 1.3-1.5" BETWEEN THE 75TH
AND 90TH PERCENTILE) ADVECTS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA SUNDAY FROM THE BAHAMAS IN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE (EAST-
SOUTHEAST) FLOW. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TO 30-50%, HIGHEST ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR NEAR TO SOUTH
OF THE ORLANDO METRO IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. SHARP LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT QUICK UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT, AND
WHILE DRY AIR ALOFT WILL BE A HURDLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION, IT WILL
ALSO ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS OF STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO PUNCH THROUGH,
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MOISTURE FURTHER INCREASES MONDAY AHEAD OF
THE FRONT (PWATS 1.3-1.5" ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA), AND WHILE THE
POLAR JET FALLS SHORT, AN ENHANCED SUBTROPICAL JET DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND GULF STARTS TO INCREASE LARGE SCALE
ASCENT OVER FLORIDA, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES UP TO 50-70% IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE HIGHEST CHANCES AS DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING
BEGIN TO SHOW. COULD SEE A TRANSITION FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STORMS TO WIDER COVERAGE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING, ALSO DEPENDING ON THE
FRONT'S TIMING.
EVEN WARMER ON SUNDAY WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE L-M80S ALONG
THE COAST AND M-U80S INLAND, 2-6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. INCREASING
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA MONDAY BRINGS
HIGHS TO THE U70S-L80S, WHILE THE SOUTHERN HALF STAYS IN THE
L-M80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN IN THE 60S.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY VERY ACTIVE WEATHER MID NEXT WEEK,
INCLUDING HEAVY RAINFALL, STRONG WINDS, AND HAZARDOUS TO
DANGEROUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS. MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO
STRUGGLE WITH THE SETUP. GFS AND CMC CONTINUE TO CALL FOR A VERY
WET SEVERAL DAYS AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED HIGH MOISTURE STALL
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA, WHICH COMBINED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FROM THE SUBTROPICAL JET, WOULD PRODUCE HIGH COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS, WHILE THE ECM MANAGES TO PUSH THE FRONT AND
MOST OF THE MOISTURE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA BY WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN
A SOGGY TUESDAY BUT DRIER OUTLOOK FOR WEDNESDAY ONWARD. THE
FORMER SCENARIO COULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
2" (WHICH WOULD BE HELPFUL FOR THE DROUGHT), AND LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS OVER 6" (WHICH COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ESPECIALLY IF
RECEIVED TOO QUICKLY). EITHER WAY THE FRONT GOES, NORTHEAST WINDS
ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN
THE FRONT AND STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TO THE NORTH,
PRODUCING A FRESH TO POSSIBLY STRONG NORTHEAST BREEZE, WITH GUSTS
THAT COULD REACH 40 MPH, WORSENING BEACH AND MARINE CONDITIONS.
ENSEMBLES GENERALLY FAVOR THE WETTER/WINDIER GFS/CMC SOLUTION,
INCLUDING THE EPS, AND IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
REST OF TODAY-SUNDAY...RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERN ATLANTIC REMAINS NORTH OF FLORIDA AND THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS, CONTINUING MODERATE TO FRESH ONSHORE (EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY) WINDS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD CONTINUE TO EXERCISE
CAUTION THE REST OF TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR WINDS
PERIODICALLY INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS AND SEAS UP TO 6 FT,
ESPECIALLY IN THE GULF STREAM. MOSTLY DRY, BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND EVEN A LIGHTNING STORM OR TWO COULD FORM ON CONVERGENCE
LINES. WINDS AND TO SOME EXTENT SEAS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
BOATING SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO RETREAT EASTWARD,
BUT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS INCREASE NEAR THE
COAST AND INLAND.
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR
BOATING MOST OF MONDAY, BUT RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORMS CHANCES
FURTHER INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE FRONT IS
FORECAST TO SLOW AS IT REACHES FLORIDA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
AND THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR/FAST IT WILL PUSH
INTO/THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. WINDS AND SEAS COULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY, AND ARE LIKELY TO BECOME HAZARDOUS TO
POSSIBLY DANGEROUS BY LATE TUESDAY. HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS CONTINUE AS WELL.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT FRI APR 3 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR SUA THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY.
BREEZY/ GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH BECOMING 6 KTS
OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR TONIGHT AND HOLDING AROUND 10 KTS
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST. INCREASING BREEZY EAST WINDS ARE
FORECAST AGAIN INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 65 82 66 84 / 0 10 0 40
MCO 66 85 67 86 / 0 10 0 50
MLB 69 81 69 82 / 10 10 10 40
VRB 67 81 68 82 / 10 10 10 40
LEE 66 86 66 87 / 10 10 0 40
SFB 66 85 66 87 / 0 10 0 40
ORL 66 85 67 86 / 0 10 0 50
FPR 66 81 67 82 / 10 10 20 40
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...LAW
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