467
FXUS62 KMLB 041110
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
710 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA'S
ATLANTIC BEACHES SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE OCEAN.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS PERSIST TODAY, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
- HIGHER RAIN COVERAGE AND INCREASINGLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS ARE
FORECAST NEXT WEEK, AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. BEACH
AND BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC MAINTAINS A
RIDGE AXIS WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA TODAY. DRIER AIR LINGERS
OVER EASTERN HALF OF THE PENINSULA, THOUGH COULD SEE A FEW WAVES OF
MOISTURE, WITH PWATS NEAR 1.2" TRAVERSE THE AREA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL, THOUGH CAN'T RULE OUT A
SHOWER IN ONE OF THE BANDS OF MOISTURE, SHOULD A CLOUD BECOME A
LITTLE THICKER, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST A SHOWER OR TWO NEAR PALM BEACH COUNTY
TODAY, SO HAVE MAINTAINED 20% POPS FOR MARTIN COUNTY, WITH A
LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO POSSIBLE. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN
PREVAIL INTO TONIGHT.
ONSHORE FLOW PERSISTS, WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS 15-20 MPH, WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH, ARE
ONCE AGAIN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. COOLER OCEAN TEMPERATURES WILL
HELP TO KEEP COASTAL COUNTIES IN THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON, WHILE
INLAND LOCATIONS REACH THE MID TO NEAR UPPER 80S. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AFTER SUNSET, AS OVERNIGHT LOWS DIP INTO THE 60S.
SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WEAKENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
DRIFTING FARTHER OFFSHORE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT, THOUGH THE
RIDGE AXIS WILL DRIFT SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE LOCAL AREA AS IT
FLATTENS. DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINS TO ADVECT INTO THE PENINSULA, WITH
PWATS NEAR 1.3-1.4". RAIN CHANCES INCREASE ACCORDINGLY, UP TO 30-
50%. HOWEVER, LINGERING DRIER AIR ALOFT WILL BE A HINDRANCE TO DEEP
CONVECTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR, WHERE LIGHTER WINDS ALLOW FOR A SEA BREEZE COLLISION IN
THE AFTERNOON. SHOULD CELLS BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE DRY AIR, IT
COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS, WITH WIND GUSTS NEAR 50
MPH AND SMALL HAIL. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS REMAIN AROUND 10-15 MPH
ALONG THE COAST, WHERE HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S. INLAND
WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA INTO MID-WEEK
NEXT WEEK, AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN US AND
TIGHTENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT. DEEP MOISTURE, WITH PWATS 1.5-1.7",
SUPPORT ALONG THE FRONT, AND A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL JET ALOFT
WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD POPS 60-70% AND UP TO 80% ON TUESDAY. MODELS
HAVE HAD TROUBLE AGREEING ON THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT AND
HAVE ALSO DIFFERED FROM RUN TO RUN, SO CONFIDENCE LEAVES SOMETHING
TO BE DESIRED IN THE EXACT TIMING OF THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OR
RAINFALL TOTALS. HOWEVER, WHAT IS MORE CONFIDENT IS THAT THE
SOUTHWESTERLY JET ALOFT WILL OPPOSE LOWER LEVEL BREEZY TO WINDY
ONSHORE FLOW. THIS MAKES FOR A GOOD SETUP FOR CONVERGENCE SHOWERS
AND STORMS ALONG THE COAST, SOME OF WHICH MAY LINGER OVER AREAS FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT COASTAL
CONDITIONS WILL BE UNFAVORABLE THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK, DUE TO
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND WE WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. FORTUNATELY, ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS MEAN THAT ANY RAINFALL
WILL BE LARGELY BENEFICIAL, AS LONG AS IT DOESN'T BECOME EXCESSIVE.
CURRENT 90TH PERCENTILE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS PEAK AROUND 3-4".
HIGHER CLOUD COVER, RAINFALL, AND BREEZY WINDS WILL KEEP HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, IN THE LOWER TO MID-
70S.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...UNCERTAINTY LINGERS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES, TIMING, AND
ACCUMULATIONS, AS MODELS DIVERGE. HOWEVER, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN US, MAINTAINING AT LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS
AND COASTAL CONCERNS. FOR NOW, NBM POPS SHOW RAIN CHANCES 40-60%
LINGERING THURSDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT KEEPS POPS TO 20-30%
OR LESS INTO THE WEEKEND. WITH DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES, HIGH
TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
PERIODS OF POOR BOATING CONDITIONS DUE TO ESE WINDS 15-20 KTS AND
SEAS UP TO 6 FT LINGER TODAY ACROSS THE OFFSHORE WATERS. MORE
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS RETURN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AS HIGH
PRESSURE WEAKENS AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. WINDS
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KTS SUNDAY, BEFORE WEAKENING FURTHER AND VEERING
OFFSHORE FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. SEAS BECOME 3-5
FT. HOWEVER, INCREASING MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO HIGHER RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES LATE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOCAL
WATERS INTO MID-WEEK, STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
EASTERN US. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE RAPIDLY
INCREASING WINDS TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, REACHING GALE-FORCE
GUSTS PRIOR TO SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. NEAR-GALE ONSHORE WINDS THEN
LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK. NEEDLESS TO SAY,
CONDITIONS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, AS
SEAS BUILD TO 12-16 FT. HIGH COVERAGE OF ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL ENHANCE THE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 720 AM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
PERSISTENCE IS KEY WITH THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HR. EXPECT
LARGELY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH E/SE BREEZES 5-15
KT, GUSTING 15-25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WATCHING A FEW
SHOWERS IN THE ATLANTIC THIS MORNING WHICH MAY CLIP COASTAL
TERMINALS, BUT CONFIDENCE IS RATHER LOW. THERE IS ALSO A VERY LOW
CHANCE FOR SOME PATCHY FOG ON SUNDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL BE WORTH
MONITORING IN SUBSEQUENT UPDATES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 82 66 84 65 / 10 0 40 40
MCO 84 67 86 67 / 10 0 50 30
MLB 81 69 82 66 / 20 0 40 30
VRB 82 68 83 66 / 20 10 30 30
LEE 87 66 88 66 / 10 0 40 30
SFB 85 66 87 66 / 10 0 50 30
ORL 85 67 87 67 / 10 0 50 30
FPR 82 67 83 65 / 20 10 40 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEAHY
AVIATION...HEIL
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