799
FXUS62 KMLB 041913
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
313 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA'S
ATLANTIC BEACHES SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE OCEAN.
- POOR BOATING CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO TONIGHT.
- HIGHER RAIN COVERAGE AND INCREASINGLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS ARE
FORECAST NEXT WEEK, AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. BEACH
AND BOATING CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE I-4 CORRIDOR INTO LATE AFTERNOON AS A WAVE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER
MOISTURE BUILDS W/NW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER, MOST LOCATIONS
SHOULD REMAIN DRY. THEN TOWARD SUNSET AND INTO TONIGHT, MOISTURE
AGAIN REBUILDS IN THE E/SE FLOW AND MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WATERS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY PUSH
ONSHORE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST OF BREVARD COUNTY AND THE
TREASURE COAST THROUGH EARLY EASTER MORNING. HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT
(20%) CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE COAST FOR
TONIGHT. A STORM OR TWO MAY ALSO REACH THE COAST, MAINLY SOUTH OF
BREVARD COUNTY THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY INCREASES OVER THE
WATERS.
SUNDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WEST ATLANTIC WEAKENS AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WITH AN EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW
CONTINUING BUT DECREASING SOME INTO SUNDAY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE, WITH PW VALUES RISING TO 1.3-1.4 INCHES TOMORROW AND THIS
WILL ALSO ALLOW RAIN CHANCES TO RISE AS WELL. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEA
BREEZE BOUNDARIES INTO THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, GREATEST CHANCE FOR
THIS ACTIVITY (RAIN CHANCES UP TO 40-50%) WILL BE WITH THE SEA
BREEZE COLLISION FAVORED LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD THE I-4 CORRIDOR.
SOME SLOW STORM MOTION BACK TOWARD THE COAST WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE
INTO THE EVENING. LINGERING DRY AIR ALOFT AND SOMEWHAT COOLER AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS COULD LEAD TO A STRONGER STORM OR TWO,
PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING, STRONG WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH AND
SMALL HAIL.
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE TO RISE MONDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE
AREA AND LEADS TO PW VALUES INCREASING FURTHER TO 1.5-1.6 INCHES.
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON, WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS STILL POSSIBLE.
HIGHS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AT THE COAST AND MID
TO UPPER 80S INLAND ON SUNDAY, AND THEN INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES WITH THE FRONT ON MONDAY DROP MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...AS FRONT SLIDES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH INCREASES THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LEADING TO A QUICKLY STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW INTO TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. HIGH COVERAGE OF ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS ARE FORECAST AS FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL JET DYNAMICS AND DEEPER
MOISTURE (PW VALUES 1.5-1.7 INCHES) REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP, WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG
THE COAST, LEADING TO DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS, INCLUDING STRONG
RIP CURRENTS AND HIGH SURF. THE SOUTHWESTERLY JET ALOFT WILL OPPOSE
LOWER LEVEL BREEZY TO WINDY ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL ENHANCE
CONVERGENCE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE COAST, SOME OF WHICH MAY
LINGER OVER AREAS FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS STILL A LITTLE UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT, BUT ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING INCREASING POTENTIAL (50-60%) FOR RAIN AMOUNTS GREATER
THAN 2 INCHES, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. CURRENT 90TH PERCENTILE
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS PEAK AROUND 3-4 INCHES. THIS RAINFALL WILL
CERTAINLY HELP BRING SOME RELIEF FROM ONGOING DROUGHT CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER, TOO MUCH RAIN TOO QUICKLY COULD LEAD TO FLOODING ISSUES,
ESPECIALLY WITH ANY PERSISTENT BANDING OF HEAVIER SHOWERS OR STORMS
ALONG THE COAST WHERE A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. HIGHER CLOUD COVER, RAINFALL, AND BREEZY
WINDS WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL, IN THE LOWER TO
MID-70S.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) UNCERTAINTY
LINGERS LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, TIMING, AND ACCUMULATIONS, AS MODELS DIVERGE. HOWEVER,
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE EASTERN US, MAINTAINING AT
LEAST BREEZY CONDITIONS AND COASTAL CONCERNS. FOR NOW, NBM POPS SHOW
RAIN CHANCES 50-60% LINGERING THURSDAY, BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT
KEEPS POPS TO 20-30% OR LESS FRIDAY AND INTO SATURDAY. WITH
DIMINISHING RAIN CHANCES, HIGH TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK INTO THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 313 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
TONIGHT-SUNDAY...POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS INTO TONIGHT AS EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE UP TO
15-20 KNOTS, BUILDING SEAS UP TO 4-6 FEET. SMALL CRAFT EXERCISE
CAUTION HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ADDED TO ALL MARINE ZONES, EXCEPT THE
NEARSHORE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS WHERE WINDS WILL BE CLOSER TO 10-15
KNOTS AND SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 4-5 FEET. SOUTHEAST WINDS THEN
DECREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS SUNDAY, WITH SEAS FALLING FROM 4-6 FEET IN
THE MORNING TO 3-5 FEET LATE IN THE DAY. EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINES
WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONTINUE FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR MUCH OF
TOMORROW.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW MORNING, PUSHING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS LAND
AREAS, BUT COULD SEE SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SHIFT BACK TOWARD THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE INTO THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY NEAR TO NORTH OF THE
CAPE.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
GENERALLY FAVORABLE INTO MONDAY MORNING, BUT BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
ACROSS THE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS INTO THE AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT
AS A FRONT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS. THIS FRONT WILL PROGRESS
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD, WITH STRONG HIGH TO THE NORTH PRODUCING ONSHORE
WINDS THAT QUICKLY STRENGTHEN BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY. HAZARDOUS TO
DANGEROUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. FREQUENT GUSTS
TO GALE FORCE ARE FORECAST LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND CAN'T RULE OUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS TO GALE FORCE (~35
KNOTS) AT TIMES DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL
BUILD SEAS TO 12-15 FEET. HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
STORMS ARE ALSO FORECAST WITH AND BEHIND THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE INTO
MIDWEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT SAT APR 4 2026
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE PUSHED ONSHORE, GENERALLY FROM TIX TO NEW
SMYRNA BEACH. MODELS ARE NOT ENTHUSIASTIC ABOUT CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT INDICATE THE SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST HAVING THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL. HAVE MAINTAINED VCSH AT SUA, BUT WILL AMEND
AS NECESSARY. E/SE WINDS AT 10-15KT, GUSTING 15-25 KT THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DECREASE TO 5-10 KT OVERNIGHT, WITH THE TREASURE
COASTAL TERMINALS REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH AROUND 07Z. GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP OVER THE
INTERIOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE KEPT IT OUT OF THE
TAF FOR THE TIME BEING SINCE CONFIDENCE IS SO LOW. WINDS WILL THEN
PICK BACK UP TO 8-13KT WITH GUSTS 18-23KT AROUND 14Z. SEA BREEZE
AND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS WILL BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR
CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS STARTING AT MCO AT
18Z TO SHOW THIS TREND. TEMPOS MAY BE ADDED DURING LATER TAF
PACKAGES IF CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT INCREASES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 66 84 65 79 / 10 30 30 70
MCO 67 86 67 83 / 10 50 30 70
MLB 69 82 67 81 / 20 30 30 70
VRB 68 82 66 82 / 20 30 30 60
LEE 66 87 67 83 / 10 40 20 60
SFB 66 87 66 83 / 10 40 30 70
ORL 67 87 67 83 / 10 50 30 70
FPR 67 82 65 83 / 20 30 30 60
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...WATSON
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