504
FXUS62 KMLB 051756
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
156 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO
EARLY THIS WEEK. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA'S
ATLANTIC BEACHES SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE OCEAN.
- HIGHER RAIN COVERAGE AND INCREASINGLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS ARE
FORECAST NEXT WEEK, AS A FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST.
- INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
INTO MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC GETS SHUNTED
EASTWARD TODAY, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH NE CANADA AND
DRAGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST US. WITH A SLACKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT, EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS FINALLY EASE TODAY COMPARED
TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, WILL STILL SEE WINDS 10-15 MPH,
WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH, ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. ELSEWHERE, WINDS 5-10 MPH. HIGHER
MOISTURE OVERSPREADS THE AREA TODAY, WITH PWATS INCREASING TO 1.3-
1.5" BY THE AFTERNOON. A FEW ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS THIS MORNING.
THEN, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER THE INTERIOR, WHERE THE SEA BREEZES ARE
EXPECTED TO COLLIDE IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. POPS TODAY 30-50%.
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE COLLISION, WITH 500
MB TEMPERATURES AROUND M10-M11 C AND DRIER AIR LINGERING IN THE MID-
LEVELS. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS TODAY WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO
AROUND 45 MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGHS WILL BE WARM
OVER THE INTERIOR, REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 80S. AT THE COAST,
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S.
MODELS SUGGEST STEERING FLOW BECOMES INCREASINGLY SOUTHWESTERLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. CAMS SUPPORT
THIS, SHOWING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DRIFTING BACK TOWARDS THE COAST IN
THE EVENING HOURS. THE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS, WITH POPS 20-30%
PERSISTING THROUGH SUNSET, BEFORE DRIFTING OFFSHORE INTO THE LATE
EVENING. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT, WITH
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID-60S.
MONDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SLOWS MONDAY AS IT OUTRUNS ITS
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT, COMING TO A CRAWL OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
DEEPER MOISTURE BUILDS ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH PWATS UP TO 1.5-1.7". A GOOD PORTION OF MONDAY MORNING LOOKS TO
REMAIN DRY. THEN, INCREASING SUPPORT ALONG THE FRONT AND HIGH
MOISTURE ARE FORECAST TO LEAD TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS BY THE AFTERNOON. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE
INTERIOR, WHERE INITIALLY SEA BREEZE DRIVEN CONVECTION ALONG THE
WEST COAST IS CARRIED INLAND ALONG SOUTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW,
WHERE IT MEETS CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS. POPS
60-70%, WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE DUE TO 500 MB
TEMPERATURES NEAR M10-M11 C. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COLLISION, THOUGH OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN AROUND 1-1.5". HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST AND MID-
80S INLAND. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE INTO MONDAY NIGHT, AS UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT INCREASES. POPS INCREASE TO 70-80%, WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE ALONG THE COAST. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MONDAY REMAIN AROUND
10-15 MPH ALONG THE COAST, LOWER INLAND. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID-60S.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY...MODELS DISAGREE A BIT ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTHWARD
THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT, WHERE IT STALLS, AND WHEN. BUT, THE OVERALL
CONSENSUS IS THAT THE FEATURE WILL LINGER NEAR THE AREA THROUGH
THURSDAY. DEEP MOISTURE PERSISTS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH
THE PERIOD. SINGLE RECENT MODEL RUNS SHOW POSSIBLY SOME LOWER
MOISTURE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY, BUT THE OVERALL THEME REMAINS
THE SAME: RAIN. THERE ARE INCREASING CONCERNS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL MID-WEEK. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE MID-
ATLANTIC, CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST US BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND THE BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE, THE
SUBTROPICAL JET STRENGTHENS ALOFT, PROVIDING ENHANCED SUPPORT. THIS
CREATES A CLASSIC SETUP FOR CONVERGENT BANDS ALONG THE COAST, AS
WINDY ONSHORE FLOW OPPOSES WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS IS FORECAST TO BE HIGH, WITH
POPS 60-80% TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE STILL HARD
TO PIN DOWN, AS IT APPEARS TO BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL DUE TO
CONVECTIVE BANDS, WHICH ARE CURRENTLY BEYOND REACH OF THE CAMS.
THEREFORE, NARROWING DOWN WHERE THE HEAVIEST TOTALS WILL FALL OR
JUST HOW MUCH IS DIFFICULT. NBM 72 HR 90TH PERCENTILE ACCUMULATIONS
NEAR 6" ALONG THE COAST. THEREFORE, TOTALS OF 3-4" WITH LOCALLY 5"+
APPEAR REASONABLE ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH
1-3" FOR THE INTERIOR. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD, WITH COVERAGE AND ACCUMULATIONS PEAKING DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WHICH COINCIDES WITH BOTH THE CONVECTIVE
MAXIMUM OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS AND PEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COAST, AS WINDS SLACKEN OVER LAND AREAS OVERNIGHT. THIS RAINFALL
WILL CERTAINLY HELP BRING SOME RELIEF FROM ONGOING DROUGHT
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER, TOO MUCH RAIN TOO QUICKLY COULD LEAD TO
FLOODING ISSUES, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY PERSISTENT BANDING OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR STORMS. A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXISTS
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG THE COAST.
BREEZY TO WINDY ONSHORE FLOW RETURNS, WITH WINDS 15-20 MPH AND GUSTS
20-30 MPH. HIGHER WINDS SHOULD BE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST, WHERE A
FEW GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 MPH ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL THEN REMAIN
ELEVATED EACH NIGHT. HIGH COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL LEAD
TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S THROUGH THURSDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND HOLDS GREATER
UNCERTAINTY, AS MODELS DIVERGE ON FEATURES OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST. THIS WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS FOR HOW MUCH MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND, THEREFORE, RAIN CHANCES. AT THE VERY
LEAST, COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DOES LOOK TO DIMINISH,
REGARDLESS, THOUGH THE QUESTION WILL BE BY HOW MUCH. FOR NOW, HAVE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE EACH DAY FROM
FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WHAT IS MORE CONFIDENT IS THE CONTINUED
BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS, WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN
US, THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS MID-WEEK, AS THE OLD
BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WITH LESS
COVERAGE OF CLOUDS, EXPECT TO SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES CREEP UP EACH
DAY, THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S FOR THE
WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
POOR BOATING CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME INCREASINGLY
FAVORABLE INTO THE AFTERNOON, AS SEAS UP TO 6 FT OFFSHORE DIMINISH
TO 4-5 FT. HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS OVER THE AREA TODAY, WITH ESE
WINDS 10-15 KTS. A FEW TO SCATTERED OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY, WHERE
IT WILL LINGER THROUGH MID-WEEK. A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
WILL FOLLOW, WITH HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. NE WINDS
5-15 KTS MONDAY WITH SEAS 3-5 FT. CONDITIONS THEN BECOME HAZARDOUS
TO DANGEROUS INTO LATE WEEK, WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC LEADING TO WINDY ONSHORE WINDS AND NEAR GALE-FORCE
GUSTS. HEADLINES ARE LIKELY, AS SEAS BUILD TO UP TO 11-15 FT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE TAF. SOME MODELS
ARE SHOWING POSSIBLE LOWER CIGS AROUND LEE OVERNIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO SHOW IT. SO, SHOWED THIS TREND BY
PUTTING SCT010 IN OVERNIGHT. SEAS BREEZE IS MOVING INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH FASTER INLAND PROGRESS FROM NEW SMYRNA TO ABOUT
SEBASTIAN INLET. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE, MAINLY FROM PALM BAY TO NEW SMYRNA, AS WELL AS AROUND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AS
THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR STARTING AT 19Z AND VCSH/VCTS ALONG THE COAST STARTING
18/20Z. HAVE MAINTAINED THE PROB30 FOR MCO AND LEE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN STORMS STARTING AT 22Z. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. SE
WINDS AT 10-15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN
TURN NW/N BY MID-MORNING WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 10 KT BEFORE
TURNING N/NE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS
FORECAST TO FORM TOMORROW AFTERNOON, TURNING THE WINDS E/SE,
MAINLY FROM TIX SOUTHWARD. SHOWER AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, HAVE VCTS STARTING AT 19Z AT
MCO, AND 17Z FROM TIX SOUTHWARD. TEMPOS/PROB30 WILL LIKELY BE
ADDED IN LATER TAF PACKAGES WHEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT BECOMES
MORE CONFIDENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 65 79 64 74 / 30 60 80 80
MCO 67 82 65 71 / 40 70 80 80
MLB 67 81 66 76 / 30 60 80 80
VRB 66 82 65 77 / 30 60 80 80
LEE 66 83 63 73 / 30 60 70 60
SFB 66 83 64 74 / 40 60 80 80
ORL 67 83 65 73 / 40 70 80 80
FPR 65 83 65 77 / 30 60 80 80
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LEAHY
AVIATION...WATSON
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