578
FXUS62 KMLB 051833
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
233 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES INTO
EARLY THIS WEEK. RESIDENTS AND VISITORS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA'S
ATLANTIC BEACHES SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE OCEAN.
- HIGHER RAIN COVERAGE AND INCREASINGLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS ARE
FORECAST NEXT WEEK, AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST.
- INCREASINGLY HAZARDOUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
INTO AT LEAST MID-WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE'S INFLUENCE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS
IT SLIDES FURTHER SEAWARD WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL SETTLE INTO NORTH-CENTRAL FL BY SUNRISE MON MORNING.
ALOFT, WEAK, NEARLY ZONAL FLOW EXISTS WITH OCCASIONAL WEAK IMPULSES
TRAVERSING THE FL PENINSULA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK WITH SE FLOW UP TO 10 MPH, UP TO
10-15 MPH (GUSTS TO AROUND 20 MPH) ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND. HIGHS SHOULD
REALIZE L-M80S FOR MOST, WITH A FEW U80S WITHIN REACH ALONG THE
KISSIMMEE RIVER AND N/W OF I-4. PWAT VALUES SURGE INTO LATE DAY
WITH VALUES 1.45-1.70" - HIGHEST ACROSS THE I-4 CORRIDOR WHERE A
LATE DAY SEA BREEZE COLLISION WILL TAKE PLACE.
SCATTERED (30-50%) SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST INTO
EARLY-MID EVENING. STEERING FLOW IS LIGHT, 5-10 MPH, TOWARD THE
EAST/NORTHEAST SO SOME ACTIVITY MAY DRIFT BACK TOWARD THE COAST
INTO MID-LATE EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING OR PUSHING OFF OF THE
COAST. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG, ESP WHERE BOUNDARIES COLLIDE,
WITH PRIMARY STORM THREATS OF LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS
LOCALLY TO 45 MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
WE MAY SEE INCREASING CLOUDS OVERNIGHT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT. GENERALLY LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS HUMID AND LOWS REMAIN MILD
IN THE 60S.
MON-MON NIGHT...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
COVERAGE WARNING AREA WITH INITIAL NORTHERLY FLOW IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
IT. WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER NNE/NE DURING THE DAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL
APPROACH 10-15 MPH DURING THE DAY, PERHAPS 15-20 MPH ACROSS THE I-4
CORRIDOR LATE DAY/EVENING WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AS THE PGRAD
REMAINS TIGHTEST HERE. CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO INCREASE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND PWATS WILL SURGE TO 1.45-1.75" NEARLY AREAWIDE. WEAK
TROUGHING ALOFT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE GULF AS WINDS "BACK" TO SW AND
PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSH ACROSS THE PENINSULA, ESP
EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS UPPER SUPPORT INCREASES. A SMALL SHOWER THREAT
WILL EXIST DURING THE MORNING, THEN SCT-NMRS CONVECTION IS FORECAST
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR
DURING THE DAY AND PROJECTED TOWARD THE COAST DURING THE NIGHT
PERIOD. STORM STEERING WILL AGAIN BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10
MPH. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MAIN CONVECTIVE THREATS
OF LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS. SOME MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING MAY BE POSSIBLE FOR
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE MULTIPLE ROUNDS. HIGHS STILL EXPECTED TO
REALIZE NEAR 80F TO L80S AT THE COAST WITH L-M80S FURTHER INTO THE
INTERIOR. LOWS CONTINUE IN THE L-M60S FOR MOST.
TUE-THU...THE POSITION OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE KEY THRU MID-WEEK IN TERMS OF HIGHEST POPS AND GREATEST HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED MUCH OF
ECFL IN A MARGINAL OUTLOOK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR TUE, AND A
BIT FURTHER INLAND INTO WED. GENERAL "TROUGHINESS" ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH WILL AID CONVECTION. CONVERGENCE
IN THE LOW-LEVELS WILL BE ENHANCED WITH THE STRONG ONSHORE FLOW.
WE ARE EXPECTING CONVERGENT CONVECTIVE BANDS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
COAST. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS WILL BE "HIGHER"
THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (50-80%). CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY
WHERE THESE BANDS SET UP AND ESTIMATES OF PRECIP WILL BE
DIFFICULT. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED WITH
CONFIDENCE INCREASING AND "TRAINING" ECHOES WILL PROMOTE A
FLOODING THREAT AS THE EVENT CONTINUES. A FLOOD WATCH MAY
EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED, BUT MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS DRY AT
PRESENT AND CAN INITIALLY TAKE SOME BOUTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. AT
THE LEAST, WE ARE EXPECTING SOME FLOODING OF PRONE URBAN AND
POORLY DRAINED AREAS.
FOR NOW, WE ARE MESSAGING PEAK AMOUNTS DURING THIS PERIOD OF 2-4"
ALONG MUCH OF THE COAST, LOCALLY 5-7" IN PLAY HERE. FOR THE
INTERIOR, 1-3" AND LOCALLY 4". SOME AREAS MAY NOT RECEIVE THESE
AMOUNTS AND SOME COULD RECEIVE MORE, AGAIN MUCH DEPENDING ON
SURFACE/UPPER AIR FEATURES AND WHERE BANDING SETS UP. COVERAGE AND
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS FORECAST TO PEAK DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
THIS RAINFALL WILL CERTAINLY HELP BRING SOME RELIEF FROM ONGOING
DROUGHT CONDITIONS, HOWEVER, TOO MUCH RAIN TOO QUICKLY COULD LEAD TO
FLOODING ISSUES, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY PERSISTENT BANDING OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS OR STORMS.
WITH THE PERCEIVED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SOMEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL
FL, STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ATLC SEABOARD
CREATING A RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SPREADING SOUTHWARD DURING
THE DAY ON TUE. THIS WILL INCREASE ONSHORE FLOW (NERLY) AREAWIDE,
TUE-THU, WITH WINDY/GUSTY CONDITIONS, ESP ALONG THE (VOLUSIA/SPACE)
COAST. GUSTS APPROACH 25-35 MPH ON TUE - HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST
AND NORTHWARD, AREAWIDE ON WED - PERHAPS UP TO 35-45 MPH, AGAIN
HIGHEST I-4 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD AND VOLUSIA/SPACE COASTS. BREEZY
AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE INTO THU - PERHAPS A LITTLE LOWER WIND
SPEEDS THAN ON WED. ELEVATED WINDS WILL ALSO CONTINUE EACH
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
HIGH COVERAGE OF CLOUDS AND PRECIP WILL LEAD TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TUE-THU. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE
60S.
ON TOP OF ALL THE UNPLEASANTNESS ABOVE, STRONG ONSHORE BREEZES WILL
CAUSE DANGEROUS CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST, INCLUDING ROUGH,
POUNDING SURF AND LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS PERSISTING INTO
THU/FRI. RAPIDLY BUILDING SURF SPREADING SOUTHWARD ON TUE, WITH
BREAKERS REACHING 9-12 FT BY LATE WED. MINOR TO MODERATE BEACH AND
DUNE EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE SURROUNDING THE TWICE-DAILY HIGH
TIDES BEGINNING ON WED.
PREVIOUS EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION MODIFIED...
FRI-SUN...THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO HOLD SOME UNCERTAINTY, AS MODELS
DIVERGE ON FEATURES OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. THIS WILL HAVE
IMPLICATIONS FOR HOW MUCH MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA, AND THEREFORE RAIN CHANCES. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS GRADUALLY LOOK TO DIMINISH, THOUGH THE QUESTION WILL BE HOW
SOON AND BY HOW MUCH. FOR NOW, WE HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE EACH DAY FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. INITIALLY, WE
CONTINUE TO DEAL WITH THE BREEZY ONSHORE WINDS, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINING OVER THE EASTERN US. WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS STRONG AS
MID-WEEK, AS THE OLD BOUNDARY WASHES OUT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLOWLY RELAXES. WITH A LOWER COVERAGE OF CLOUDS, EXPECT TO SEE HIGH
TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK UPWARD, THOUGH ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
MAXES IN THE U70S TO AROUND 80F NEAR THE COAST, WITH L80S
INLAND. LOWS CONSISTENT AND IN THE L-M60S, PERHAPS U60S AT THE
COAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 203 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
GRADUALLY IMPROVING BOATING CONDITIONS, IF ONLY BRIEFLY, AS SEAS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE. ESE WINDS 10-15 KTS GRADUALLY VEERING
MORE S/SW OVERNIGHT AND DECREASING TO 5-10 KTS. MAY SEE SOME
ISOLD-SCT, OFFSHORE-MOVING, CONVECTION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
A WEAKENING FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE LOCAL WATERS
ON MON, LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA THRU MID-WEEK. UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY IN THE WEEK CONTINUING
MID TO LATE WEEK. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED LIGHTNING
STORMS WILL INCREASE DURING THIS TIME WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL, LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND HIGHER
ASSOCIATED SEAS. WITH PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT AND STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD, BOTH (ONSHORE) WINDS
AND SEAS WILL INCREASE BECOMING HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS IN
CATEGORY. ADVISORY TO GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS WE VENTURE (ESP)
INTO MON NIGHT-FRI. SEAS FORECAST TO BUILD TO 11-16 FT, WITH
HIGHER INDIVIDUAL WAVES LIKELY. CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTRACOASTAL
WILL BE EXTREMELY ROUGH AND WIND-CHOPPED.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 135 PM EDT SUN APR 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE TAF. SOME MODELS
ARE SHOWING POSSIBLE LOWER CIGS AROUND LEE OVERNIGHT, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO SHOW IT. SO, SHOWED THIS TREND BY
PUTTING SCT010 IN OVERNIGHT. SEAS BREEZE IS MOVING INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH FASTER INLAND PROGRESS FROM NEW SMYRNA TO ABOUT
SEBASTIAN INLET. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE, MAINLY FROM PALM BAY TO NEW SMYRNA, AS WELL AS AROUND
LAKE OKEECHOBEE THIS AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AS
THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR STARTING AT 19Z AND VCSH/VCTS ALONG THE COAST STARTING
18/20Z. HAVE MAINTAINED THE PROB30 FOR MCO AND LEE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS IN STORMS STARTING AT 22Z. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT. SE
WINDS AT 10-15 KT WITH A FEW GUSTS TO 20 KT ALONG THE COAST THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. WINDS THEN
TURN NW/N BY MID-MORNING WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 10 KT BEFORE
TURNING N/NE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS
FORECAST TO FORM TOMORROW AFTERNOON, TURNING THE WINDS E/SE,
MAINLY FROM TIX SOUTHWARD. SHOWER AND STORMS ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW,
MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW, HAVE VCTS STARTING AT 19Z AT
MCO, AND 17Z FROM TIX SOUTHWARD. TEMPOS/PROB30 WILL LIKELY BE
ADDED IN LATER TAF PACKAGES WHEN TIMING AND PLACEMENT BECOMES
MORE CONFIDENT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 65 79 64 74 / 30 60 80 80
MCO 67 82 65 71 / 40 70 80 80
MLB 67 81 66 76 / 30 60 80 80
VRB 66 82 65 77 / 30 60 80 80
LEE 66 83 63 73 / 30 60 70 60
SFB 66 83 64 74 / 40 60 80 80
ORL 67 83 65 73 / 40 70 80 80
FPR 65 83 65 77 / 30 60 80 80
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...WATSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page